Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday afternoon:
Lihue airport, Kauai – 79
Honolulu airport, Oahu – 80
Kaneohe, Oahu – 78
Molokai airport – 75
Kahului airport, Maui – 85
Kona airport – 82
Hilo airport, Hawaii – 82
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 3pm Saturday afternoon:
Kahului, Maui – 83
Kaneohe, Oahu – 76F
Haleakala Crater – missing (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – missing (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)
Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Saturday afternoon:
0.00 Kauai
0.01 Hawaii Kai, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.00 Maui
0.23 Pali 2, Big Island
Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a strong 1039 millibar high pressure system far to our northeast, with a high pressure ridge extending southwest over Maui. Our winds will come in from the south, gradually becoming north and northeast in the wake of a cold front.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.
Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season ends November 30th here in the central Pacific.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hazy, rising surf…cold front Sunday
South to Southeast winds will prevail Saturday evening, gradually shifting more fully to the south ahead of a cold front Sunday. This weather map shows a strong 1039 millibar high pressure system far to our northeast, centered well offshore from the northern California/Oregon coasts. This high pressure cell has an associated ridge of high pressure extending southwest…to over Maui Saturday evening. Rather thick volcanic haze is being carried over the smaller islands…from the Big Island vents.
As the cold front pushes down into the island chain, stalling somewhere near Oahu or Maui…our winds will shift to the north and northeast for several days. There is uncertainty about what the winds will do thereafter. The best likely prospect would bring back easterly trade winds around Tuesday, last for several days. Yet another cold front will approach the islands during the second half of the new week, with southeast to south winds returning Friday…into next weekend.
Winds will be light for the most part, although will become stronger from the south later Saturday night, especially on the Kauai end of the island chain…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts, along with directions Saturday afternoon:
21 mph Barking Sands, Kauai – SE
17 Waianae, Oahu – SE
05 Molokai – NW
18 Kahoolawe – SE
07 Kahului, Maui – NNE
00 Lanai Airport
27 South Point, Big Island – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our local skies. This large University of Washington satellite image shows the ragged leading edge of our approaching frontal cloud band to the northwest, very near Kauai now…with another cold front further to the northwest. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture, it shows an area of low clouds near Kauai and Oahu Saturday afternoon. We can use this looping satellite image to see the cold front very slowly pushing in our direction. Checking out this looping radar image, it shows a fair amount of showers over the ocean, being carried along on the southeast wind flow.
Thick volcanic haze (vog) remains over the islands Saturday evening, along with a few showers over and around the islands. As we push into the second half of this weekend, the cold front will arrive over Kauai and Oahu, with locally gusty south Kona winds blowing ahead of the frontal cloud band. We may see an increased amount of showers later Saturday into the night, although the largest part of the frontal rainfall will arrive Sunday with the front. This precipitation should be rather generous, especially around Kauai and Oahu, bringing some possible localized flooding. As the front stalls over the central islands, we'll see slightly cooler north to northeast winds following its passage, which will keep the north and northeast sides off and on showery into the first couple of days of the new week. Looking further ahead, the next cold front will approach later in the week…towards the weekend.
I went to see a new film Friday evening, which was pretty good. I was too chicken to see the film called The Roommate, too scary for the likes of me. Rather, I took in the one called The Mechanic, starring Jason Statham and Ben Foster, among many others. It was your typical action flick, which was fine with me. The synopsis: an elite assassin forges a deadly partnership when he takes on a protege in pursuit of revenge. That's probably more than most of you want to know about, much less to view the trailer. However, I know there will be a couple of you, maybe one or two folks who would like to see it, so here it is. By the way, the critics are giving this film a C+ grade, while the viewers are giving an improved B+ rating. I'll come down with a light B grade, nothing spectacular, although it did provide me entertainment. If you are a hard core action person, you would likely enjoy this film. Next Friday I want to see the film called Blue Valentine, which looks good.
Here in Kula, Maui, at 415pm Saturday, the air temperature was 66.2F degrees. The level of volcanic haze is high…really thick. I expect that as the cold front mentioned above gets closer, we'll see increased high cirrus clouds coming our way. The models first had the front reaching all the way down to the Big Island, then it was Maui, and now the models are showing the front reaching Oahu only. I'd like it to reach Maui, to come down my way, but that is more of an emotional consideration than anything else. The main thing however as we wait for the cold front to finally arrive, is the thick vog! It's starting to get foggy here in Kula, although before these low clouds arrived, it was super voggy. Most of the showers are still over the ocean, offshore from the islands at the time of this writing. There isn't much wind here, although it is stronger in other parts of the island chain. I'd expect Kauai and Oahu to see some rain arriving overnight, or certainly on Sunday. I believe that the rest of the state will see some showers too, although not as many as over the western islands. Again, here's the looping radar image, so we can keep track of where the showers are falling. ~~~ I'll be back Sunday morning, or later this evening if something catches my eye. I hope you have a great Saturday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Interesting: A research team investigating the last 100,000 years of Earth's climate history reached an important milestone completing the main ice core to a depth of 10,928 feet at West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS). The project will be completed over the next two years with some additional coring and borehole logging to obtain additional information and samples of the ice for the study of the climate record contained in the core.
As part of the project, begun six years ago, the team, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), has been drilling deep into the ice at the WAIS Divide site and recovering and analyzing ice cores for clues about how changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have influenced the Earth's climate over time.
Friday's milestone was reached at a depth of 3,331 meters–about two miles deep–creating the deepest ice core ever drilled by the U.S. and the second deepest ice core ever drilled by any group, second only to the ice core drilled at Russia's Vostok Station as part of a joint French/U.S./Russian collaboration in the 1990s.
"By improving our understanding of how natural changes in greenhouse gas influenced climate in the past, the science community will be able to do a better job of predicting future climate changes caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases by human activity," said Kendrick Taylor, chief scientist for the WAIS Divide Ice Core Project.
Interesting2: New discoveries on how underwater ridges impact the ocean's circulation system will help improve climate projections. An underwater ridge can trap the flow of cold, dense water at the bottom of the ocean. Without the ridge, deepwater can flow freely and speed up the ocean circulation pattern, which generally increases the flow of warm surface water.
Warm water on the ocean's surface makes the formation of sea ice difficult. With less ice present to reflect the sun, surface water will absorb more sunlight and continue to warm. U.S. Geological Survey scientists looked back 3 million years, to the mid-Pliocene warm period, and studied the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean's Greenland-Scotland Ridge on surface water temperature.
"Sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans were much warmer during the mid-Pliocene warm period than they are today, but climate models so far have been unable to fully understand and account for the cause of this large scale of warming," said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. "Our research suggests that a lower height of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge during this geologic age was a contributor to the increase of poleward heat transport."
"This is the first time the impact of a North Atlantic underwater ridge on the ocean circulation system was tested in a mid-Pliocene experiment," said Robinson. "Understanding this process allows for more accurate predictions of factors such as ocean temperature and ice volume changes."
Research was conducted on the mid-Pliocene because it is the most recent interval in the earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the 21st century by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Therefore, it may be one of the closest analogs in helping to understand the earth's current and future conditions.
Interesting3: The substantial decline of Arctic sea ice in recent years has triggered some fears that the ice cover might be approaching a "tipping point" beyond which the loss of the remaining sea ice would become unstoppable. However, new research carried out at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg/Germany now indicates that such tipping point is unlikely to exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
The sea-ice cover reacts instead relatively directly to the climatic conditions at any given time. Hence, the ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice could be slowed down and eventually stopped if global warming were to be slowed down and eventually stopped.
Steffen Tietsche, lead author of the study that appeared this week in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, said that he was quite surprised when he found this result: "It seems so obvious that a tipping point for Arctic summer sea ice exists: with a smaller sea-ice cover, more sunlight is absorbed by the dark open water of the polar ocean.
This water therefore warms efficiently during summer, which leads to additional melting of sea ice and even more open water. This feedback loop can in principle cause the loss of Arctic sea ice to become at some point self-amplified and hence independent of the prevailing climate conditions."
To examine the validity of this concept, the researchers used a climate model in which they removed the Arctic sea-ice cover completely at the beginning of summer. In doing so, they maximized the absorption of solar radiation. "We expected the ocean to remain ice free after the initial ice removal, because so much more heat would be absorbed by the open water during summer," Tietsche said.
However, in the model simulations the ice always recovered within about three years to the conditions it had before the artificial removal. This indicates that sea ice extent closely resembles the prevailing climate conditions at any given time, which makes the existence of a tipping point unlikely.
The researchers find that two processes contribute most to the recovery of the ice cover: First, during winter the ocean loses most of the additional heat it gained during summer. This heat loss is very efficient after the removal of the insulating sea-ice cover, because then the ocean is in winter directly in contact with the cold atmosphere.
Second, the thin ice that eventually forms during winter grows very fast, because thin ice does not insulate as efficiently as thick ice. The heat that is released from the ocean through the thin ice leads to an increased heat loss from the atmosphere into space and to a decreased heat transport from the South into the Arctic. The combination of these stabilizing feedbacks more than compensates for the additional absorption of sunlight during summer.
The findings of this new study confirm work that was carried out by American scientists with a much simpler model. "This general agreement of models with substantially different complexity usually indicates that the result is robust," says Jochem Marotzke, director at the Max Planck Institute and co-author of the new study.
The researchers underline that their results do not question the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice or its relation to anthropogenic climate change. "If we don't slow down global warming extensively, we will lose the summer sea-ice cover in the Arctic within a few decades," says Tietsche.
"Our research shows that the speed of sea-ice loss is closely coupled to the speed of global warming. We think that it's important to know that we can still do something about slowing down or possibly even stopping the loss of the sea-ice cover."
Interesting4: A growing global population has lead to increasing demands for food. Farmers around the world rely, at least in part on phosphorus-based fertilizers in order to sustain and improve crop yields. But the overuse of phosphorus can lead to freshwater pollution and the development of a host of problems, such as the spread of blue-green algae in lakes and the growth of coastal 'dead zones'.
A further issue is that phosphorus comes from phosphate rock, a non-renewable resource of which there are limited supplies in such geopolitically charged areas as Western Sahara and China. Now, for the first time ever, a detailed global map has been produced showing imbalances in the way that phosphorus, an essential plant nutrient, is being used around the world.
"Typically, people either worry about what happens when an excess of phosphorus finds its way into the water, or they focus on what happens when we run out of phosphorus," says Graham MacDonald, a PhD student in the Department of Natural Resource Sciences at McGill University, who led the study. "This is the first study that illuminates the issue on a global scale and suggests that these are not separate problems … that the issue is one of distributing the phosphorus we've got."
The study used detailed agronomic information about how much phosphorus is applied to soils in fertilizers and manures for more than 100 different food, feed, and fiber crops produced around the world in 2000. The results point to large imbalances in phosphorus use, with both the overuse of phosphorus in some parts of the world and phosphorus deficits in others. There were some surprising findings.
While it is typically assumed that phosphorus deficits exist in only the poorer countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and phosphorus surpluses dominate in the wealthy nations of Europe and North America, in fact phosphorus levels vary widely within most nations — with surpluses and deficits commonly occurring side-by-side in a single region.
Furthermore, countries such as Ukraine, long-known as the Russian empire's 'bread basket', is one area that now suffers from phosphorus deficits, while eastern China and southern Brazil have been identified as phosphorus 'hotspots', where surplus phosphorus from the intensive use of fertilizers pose a danger of being lost from farmlands in runoff where it may pollute freshwater supplies.
"Until you can quantify how phosphorus is actually currently being used," MacDonald says, "it's difficult for policy-makers to go ahead and make informed decisions at a national or global scale." Now they will have a tool to help them do so.
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