Hawaiian Islands weather details & Aloha paragraphs / January 10-11, 2011

January 10-11, 2011

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday afternoon:

Lihue airport, Kauai –        74
Honolulu airport, Oahu –    76
Kaneohe, Oahu –              76
Molokai airport –               73
Kahului airport, Maui –       75
Kona airport –                     80
Hilo airport, Hawaii –         78

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Monday evening:

Kailua-kona – 80F
Molokai airport – 66

Haleakala Crater –    missing (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 25 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Monday evening:

1.78 Puu Opae, Kauai  
1.09 Makua Range , Oahu
0.60 Molokai 
0.26 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.79 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.00 Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a cold front moving down through the island chain. Our winds will be locally gusty from the southwest…becoming lighter and cooler from the north Tuesday. Winds will become stronger and gusty again Wednesday from the south and southwest.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season won't end until November 31st here in the central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

Better weather Tuesday…before wet and windy weather arrives
 

A cold front is bringing showers to the eastern islands Monday evening…with locally gusty winds with and ahead of the frontal passage. This weather map shows a developing storm to the north of the islands, with its associated cold front moving through the state from the northwest. Winds are locally strong and gusty, from the Kona directions…south to southwest. Winds will calm down, and veer to the northwest and north tonight into Tuesday…and may have a slight chill to them again. As we push into the mid-week time frame our winds will accelerate again from the Kona directions, becoming locally quite strong and gusty. We may see wind advisories going up in response to these winds into Thursday. It appears that the winds will become lighter, although may remain from the south Friday into the weekend…ahead of yet another cold front later this weekend into early next week.

Locally gusty Kona winds are blowing Monday evening…the following numbers represent the strongest breezes, along with directions:

27 mph     Port Allen, Kauai – NW
28              Waianae, Oahu – SW
23            Molokai – W
18            Kahoolawe – SW
27            Kahului, Maui – SSW
22            Lanai Airport – WNW 
24            South Point, Big Island – SW

Showers associated with the cold front brought showers to Kauai and Oahu today…reaching Maui County late in the afternoon…with the Big Island getting their turn later this evening.  This large University of Washington satellite image shows the entire state, except for Kauai, covered with thick clouds as we move into the night, with rainfall passing down through the island chain, from Maui County towards the Big Island at the time of this writing.  Looking at this NOAA satellite picture, shows the back edge of the cloud cover to the west of Oahu, with the rest of the islands completely covered up.

As this mass of clouds moves eastward, there will be some clearing of the overcast starting with Kauai. The bulk of this cloudiness is of the high variety, with middle and lower level clouds mixed in as well…along with thunderstorm cells popping-up here and there. We can loop this satellite image, to see the clouds coming in from the west, having cleared Kauai.  It should be pointed out that we have an area of high cirrus clouds coming toward Kauai…in the wake of the departing cold front Monday evening. Checking out this looping radar image we see pockets of heavy rain moving over Maui County early this evening, with moderately heavy showers beginning to impact the Big Island too. 

A hydrologic outlook statement, giving note that there is a better than 50% chance of flooding rainfall, has been replaced by a flash flood watch for the entire state Monday afternoon…beginning on Wednesday. Depending upon the changes that will naturally occur between now and then, the watch could be pulled from the Big Island, or left alone. There’s always the chance that this watch could become a flash flood warning at some point into Thursday. There has been talk of possible thunderstorms with this next event, which could bring additional chances of flooding rainfall into play as well. I would recommend clearing rain gutters and securing lawn furniture etc. during the day Tuesday…before this wet and windy event begins on Wednesday into Thursday. It looks like better weather will return Friday into the first part of the upcoming weekend.



~~~ Here in Kihei, Maui, early Monday evening it's breezy, with moisture laden cloudiness all around. Maui County is already getting locally heavy rainfall, and according to radar images, the entire County will be getting wet, with some thunderstorms too – with the Big Island not far behind. We'll need to batten down the hatches as we get into Wednesday and Thursday, as wet and windy weather will arrive again then.

~~~ When I left Kihei, for the drive back upcountry to Kula, it rained steadily and hard to very hard all the way! The roads were flooded in many areas, and the visibility was very poor. I honestly felt thankful when I finally arrived home. Then, not more than a few minutes after I walked in my door, the power went out! I had just started making my dinner, so I fortunately had candles nearby, which I used until I went to bed. Just before getting done reading with a small flash light I have, I noticed that the neighbors lights were on. I had unplugged my computer when I got home, as there was lots of lightning going on from a nearby thunderstorm. I just powered my computer back up, and figured that I'd come back online and share with you what kind of an evening it had turned out to be. I think we'll have a decent Tuesday, although by Wednesday already, we'll be right back into an inclement weather situation, as described in the paragraphs above. I'll be back early Tuesday morning with more. I hope you have a great Monday night from wherever you happen to be reading! Aloha for now…Glenn.

~~~Flash flood watch entire state starting Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon!

~~~High Surf Advisory through 6 pm Wednesday…north and west facing shores

Looping Radar Image

Interesting: The Trans Alaska Pipeline shut down after a leak was discovered at the intake pump station at Prudhoe Bay, constricting supply in one of the United States' key oil arteries. Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., the operator of the 800-mile line which runs from the Prudhoe Bay oilfield to the tanker port of Valdez, said the leak was discovered Saturday morning.

Oil producers are in the process of cutting output to 5 percent of the normal rate of around 630,000 barrels per day. There is no estimate yet of how long the pipeline — which carries about 12 percent of U.S. oil production — will be shut down or when normal production can resume, said Alyeska spokeswoman Michelle Egan.

So far, shipments from the port of Valdez, the terminus of the pipeline, are unaffected and tankers are being loaded on schedule. Oil produced during the shutdown will be stored at Prudhoe Bay until the pipeline reopens. There is no estimate of how much oil leaked, but Alyeska said no oil has been found to have escaped beyond concrete encasing the pipeline.

"The concrete encasement is why we don't believe there's any environmental impact," said Egan. "Until we can excavate, we won't be able to say that definitely." Alyeska is owned by oil companies with interests on Alaska's North Slope, the third-largest U.S. oil producing region after the Gulf of Mexico and Texas .

Major owners in the region are BP, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp. BP, which operates the Prudhoe Bay field, has started the process of reducing production, said company spokesman Steve Rinehart. "I can't give you an estimate of how long it will take to get down to 5 percent, but we are working quickly and safely to do that," he said. Tasks include freeze-protecting lines and facilities, he said.

The leak was discovered in the basement of a building that holds booster pumps for Pump Station 1, the intake station for the oil artery, Egan said. The booster pumps are housed in a building separate from the main pump building, and the leak appears to be in a concrete-encased pipeline on the exterior, she said.

Interesting2: Residents in Australia's third largest city, Brisbane, sandbagged their homes against rising waters on Monday as torrential rain worsened floods that have paralyzed the coal industry in the northeast and now threaten tourism. Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the cost of the floods would not delay a return to budget surplus in 2012-13, but J.P. Morgan predicted the disaster would crimp growth this year and could delay another increase in interest rates.

The worst floods in 50 years have at times covered an area the size of France and Germany combined in Queensland state. Six people have been killed while dozens of towns have been isolated or partially submerged. More monsoon rains are expected all week.

"People need to think about how to get out and if you don't need to travel, stay off the roads," said Police Chief Superintendent Alistair Dawson, referring to some of the smaller towns near Brisbane, Queensland's state capital.

oowoomba, a major rural city west of Brisbane, was hit by a two-meter-deep wall of mud-filled floodwater which swept two people to their deaths and left others clinging to the tops of vehicles carried along streets by the torrent, police said.

In Brisbane, a city of 2 million, people in low-lying areas were given sandbags and warned the worst of the flooding might not occur until Tuesday or Wednesday.

Interesting3: The amount of dust in the Earth's atmosphere has doubled over the last century, according to a new study; and the dramatic increase is influencing climate and ecology around the world. The study, led by Natalie Mahowald, associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, used available data and computer modeling to estimate the amount of desert dust, or soil particles in the atmosphere, throughout the 20th century.

It's the first study to trace the fluctuation of a natural (not human-caused) aerosol around the globe over the course of a century. Desert dust and climate influence each other directly and indirectly through a host of intertwined systems. Dust limits the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth, for example, a factor that could mask the warming effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

It also can influence clouds and precipitation, leading to droughts; which, in turn, leads to desertification and more dust. Ocean chemistry is also intricately involved. Dust is a major source of iron, which is vital for plankton and other organisms that draw carbon out of the atmosphere.

To measure fluctuations in desert dust over the century, the researchers gathered existing data from ice cores, lake sediment and coral, each of which contain information about past concentrations of desert dust in the region. They then linked each sample with its likely source region and calculated the rate of dust deposition over time.

Applying components of a computer modeling system known as the Community Climate System Model, the researchers reconstructed the influence of desert dust on temperature, precipitation, ocean iron deposition and terrestrial carbon uptake over time.

Interesting4: An international, NOAA-led research team took a significant step forward in understanding the atmosphere's ability to cleanse itself of air pollutants and some other gases, except carbon dioxide. The issue has been controversial for many years, with some studies suggesting the self-cleaning power of the atmosphere is fragile and sensitive to environmental changes, while others suggest greater stability.

And what researchers are finding is that the atmosphere's self-cleaning capacity is rather stable. "Now we know that the atmosphere's ability to rid itself of many pollutants is generally well buffered or stable," said Montzka. "This fundamental property of the atmosphere was one we hadn't been able to confirm before." The new finding adds confidence to projections of future air pollutant loads.

The hydroxyl radical, comprised of one oxygen atom and one hydrogen atom, is formed and broken down so quickly in the atmosphere that it has been extremely difficult to measure on global scales. "In the daytime, hydroxyl's lifetime is about one second and is present at exceedingly low concentrations," said Montzka. "Once created, it doesn't take long to find something to react with."

The radical is central to the chemistry of the atmosphere. It is involved in the formation and breakdown of surface-level ozone, a lung- and crop-damaging pollutant. It also reacts with and destroys the powerful greenhouse gas methane and air pollutants including hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide.

However, hydroxyl radicals do not remove carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide or chlorofluorocarbons. To estimate variability in global hydroxyl levels — and thus the cleansing capacity of the atmosphere — researchers turned to studying longer-lived chemicals that react with hydroxyl.

The industrial chemical methyl chloroform, for example, is destroyed in the atmosphere primarily by hydroxyl radicals. By comparing levels of methyl chloroform emitted into the atmosphere with levels measured in the atmosphere, researchers can estimate the concentration of hydroxyl and how it varies from year to year.

This technique produced estimates of hydroxyl that swung wildly in the 1980s and 1990s. Researchers struggled to understand whether the ups and downs were due to errors in emissions estimates for methyl chloroform, for example, or to real swings in hydroxyl levels.

The swings would be of concern: Large fluctuations in hydroxyl radicals would mean the atmosphere's self-cleaning ability was very sensitive to human-caused or natural changes in the atmosphere. To complicate matters, when scientists tried to measure the concentration of hydroxyl radical levels compared to other gases, such as methane, they were seeing only small variations from year to year.

The same small fluctuation was occurring when scientists ran the standard global chemistry models. An international agreement helped resolve the issue. In response to the Montreal Protocol — the international agreement to phase out chemicals that are destroying the Earth's protective stratospheric ozone layer — production of methyl chloroform all but stopped in the mid 1990s.

As a result, emissions of this potent ozone-depleting gas dropped precipitously. Without the confounding effect of any appreciable methyl chloroform emissions, a more precise picture of hydroxyl variability emerged based on the observed decay of remaining methyl chloroform.

The scientists studied hydroxyl radicals both by making measurements of methyl chloroform from NOAA's international cooperative air sampling program and also by modeling results with state-of-the-art models. The group's findings improve confidence in projecting the future of Earth's atmosphere.

"Say we wanted to know how much we'd need to reduce human-derived emissions of methane to cut its climate influence by half," Montzka said. "That would require an understanding of hydroxyl and its variability. Since the new results suggest that large hydroxyl radical changes are unlikely, such projections become more reliable."