July 20-21 2006

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across Hawaii Thursday:

Lihue, Kauai – 83F
Honolulu, Oahu – 86
Kaneohe, Oahu – 85
Kahului, Maui – 91
Hilo, Hawaii – 85
Kailua-Kona, Hawaii – 85

Temperatures early Friday morning ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level at the 4 a.m. hour:

LIHUE, KAUAI – 77
KAHULUI, MAUI – 70

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours (as of Friday morning) on each of the major islands:

0.10 WAINIHA, KAUAI
0.178 WAIPIO, OAHU
0.06 MOLOKAI
0.00 LANAI
0.00 KAHOOLAWE
1.10 WEST WAILUAIKI, MAUI
0.18 GLENWOOD, BIG ISLAND

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map…showing high pressure systems located far to the NW and NE of our islands. At the same time we find a trough of low pressure just north of Kauai. Our local trade winds will remain light today, then pick up some by later in the day Saturday. Here’s a Weather Map Symbol page for clarification about what all those funny weather symbols mean.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon cloud conditions.

Satellite Images – To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean…out from the islands. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Tropical Cyclone Activity – The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30…while the central Pacific (where Hawaii is) runs from June 1 through November 30. The latest storm information for the eastern Pacific can be found by clicking here. A storm tracking map for both the central and eastern areas can be found by clicking here . For the central Pacific, the latest storm information can be found by clicking here.

Aloha Paragraphs

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The end of another perfect day in Hawaii…

The recent very dry weather here in the islands, ended briefly, at least in some places, as somewhat more showery clouds arrived from the east. A trough of low pressure, loosely associated with former tropical cyclone Bud, is moving by to the north of the state now. A southern extension of that trough carried clouds into the state, with light showers falling here and there. The bulk of this small drop (misty) precipitation fell along the windward coasts and slopes…although there was at least one place along the Hana, Maui coast, that picked 1.50" of the wet stuff. It appears that conditions will dry out again now into the weekend. This batch of moisture has tropical origins, and in combination with the high heat of July, and the lighter than normal winds for this time of year…will have Hawaii's residents feeling rather muggy air for the next day or two.

The weekend looks fine, although towards the end of the weekend, perhaps into next Monday, we could see another upsurge in showers arriving locally. All of the precipitation I have been referring to will be on the light side. This won’t likely stop anyone from enjoying the out of doors, especially along the leeward beaches, where sunshine will have at least a toe hold, and probably more than that during the days. The possible minor surge in showers late Sunday into Monday, will arrive thanks to former hurricane Carlotta. Retired tropical storms Bud and Carlotta both had their start (and endings) in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The remnant moisture from these old storms, minus their winds, will continue to bring off and on showers to our area, although minor influences at best.

Speaking of tropical systems, we have a category 3 hurricane, which is expected to reach category 4 briefly, spinning far ESE of the islands. This is of course major hurricane Daniel, which will likely be maxing-out in strength during the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, it will start passing over cooler ocean water, and begin its dissipating phase. It will drop from a hurricane down into a tropical storm while still in the eastern Pacific. It may move into our central Pacific as a mild tropical storm next week, although may have already reduced in strength even further, into a tropical depression as it moves in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands. It’s too early to know for sure what, if anything, it may bring to our islands…but my best guess at this time is an increase in showers late next week. I’ll add this tracking map for your convenience, and keep you updated on its progress westward.

Our friend Hans Rosendal, a recently retired National Weather Service Lead Forecaster in Honolulu, and one of the foremost hurricane experts in Hawaii, wrote the following piece of work on Hurricane Daniel: Hurricane Daniel is now a powerful category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds 115 to 125 kt. Daniel has become what we refer to as an annular hurricane. That is, it has at least momentarily taken on that appearance in the satellite pictures of the proverbial truck tire, with little in the way of vertical wind shear, or deep convection within the feeder bands to destroy that nearly perfect symmetry, and the very tight circular eye and pressure gradient. 

Daniel is likely near its maximum intensity late Thursday, though it may remain at this intense state for another 24 to 48 hours as long as it continues to drift slowly WNW in a weak steering flow environment near 15N latitude. This seems to be a very favorable latitude for intense tropical cyclones with deep warm water and good cross equatorial low level flow from the SW, feeding into the cyclone at low levels, while at upper levels, winds out of the north replaces this southern hemisphere air. As Daniel moves westward, another hurricane is forecast to develop behind Daniel in a day or two.


The present forecast calls for Daniel to move slowly WNW to near 20N 140W in a week or so while gradually weakening . From that point nearly 1000 miles east of Hawaii,  it will turn more westerly and move into the island chain, or just north of Hawaii in the 10 day time frame. For our islands' weather, this will likely mean more light winds over the islands for this period, and some rainfall during its passage over the state. A path south of th islands would mean a more intense Daniel with respect to winds and rain.


The long period of light winds and less stratiform cloudiness over the islands' waters during the past week or two means that sea surface temperatures are likely to be quite warm for late July in our area. We have had a late July and early August hurricane in 1959 named Dot that affected mainly Kauai, and also Oahu to some extent, so it is possible.

When several hurricanes become strung out in a chain of two or three, or even four between here and central America, they interact in such a way that the leading storm is held a little further south than it otherwise would be, along a more westward track.  This is not to say that that will happen this time around, but it pays to attentive, and to be prepared.

It’s early Thursday evening here in Kula, Maui, as I start this sunset commentary.  I had planned to share a nice experience, that I had with a large group of kids at the beach today. That is, until I started to drive home from work in Kihei. I had just turned right onto the Piilani Highway, the upper Kihei road. I was going along with the traffic, which was pretty heavy, when the cars in front of me slammed on their breaks. I was able to stop in time, but the cars behind me were veering around a little as their cars braked heavily. I had just come to a stop, and the guy behind me was honking his horn for some reason. The next thing that I knew there was several cars right next to me, in the oncoming lanes of traffic, that started crashing into each other! It happened very close to where I was stopped, and I can still hear the sounds of the cars hitting each other…or actually can still feel those impacts inside my stomach. The traffic in my lanes started to go forward, so I went with it, but I could see people running around on the road in my rear view mirror. It was not a pleasant experience, although I don't think anyone got hurt too badly, there was definitely some major damage to all the cars involved. It certainly made me wake up to the fact that things can happen suddenly, and seemingly right out of left field, so to speak. I highly suggest that we all remember to drive carefully at all times, one never knows what can happen until it does! I'll be back early Friday morning with the next narrative. Aloha for now…Glenn.


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