Glenn James

Hawaii Weather Today
Creator, Author, and Administrator for over 30 years

 

The latest update to this website was at 829pm Tuesday evening HST


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Tuesday evening: 

0.10  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.21  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.22  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.04  Lanai City, Lanai
0.25  Kahikinui 1, Maui
1.29  Keahuolu, Big Island


The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday evening:

14  Puu Opae, Kauai – NW
23  Kalaeloa, Oahu – N
18  Makapulapai, Molokai – E
24  Na Kula, Maui – E
27  Kealakomo, Big Island – NE


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the (~10,023 feet high) Haleakala Crater on Maui (currently out of service). These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


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Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

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 Hurricane Rachel far east towards Mexico…will be no threat to Hawaii


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Variable clouds are present over the island chain 

 

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Localized Showers…a few heavy

 

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Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above




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Hawaii Weather Narrative
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Glenn’s Tuesday comments:  I’m at home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii

457am, it’s clear here at my place, the low temperature 53 degrees, relative humidity is 81%…with calm winds

There’s a great planetary configuration early this morning before sunrise, with the sliver moon’s cup facing upward…and Jupiter just above the cup!

928am, mostly sunny here in Maui County with just a few popcorn cumulus clouds around here and there.

340pm, mostly sunny to partly sunny this afternoon, which is perhaps the calm before the storm? As noted below, we have some potential rain weather on the horizon up ahead…especially for Kauai and Oahu.

522pm, looking way ahead, I’m thinking in terms of a dry winter here in Hawaii…and a VERY WET winter along the west coast, especially in California.

825pm, it’s turned a bit chilly here at my place, with the temperature having dropped down to 59.5 degrees…with clear skies and calm winds and a rather dry 69% relative humidity.


Hawaii’s Weather Highlights
…as of Tuesday evening:
Light winds turn southerly on Wednesday in response to low pressure developing north of the state. This will favor sea breezes and a few interior showers during the afternoon. Deep southerly winds will bring potential for flooding rainfall Wednesday night through at least Thursday.

Short Term Update: Light winds will veer to the south and southeast during the next 12 hours or so, then undergo modest strengthening Wednesday in response to a developing cyclone north of Kauai. A few showers embedded within moist southerly flow will be possible over leeward areas, until more organized convection potentially forms over central/northern portions of Kauai and Oahu, in response to afternoon sea breezes on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall potential holds off until Wednesday night.

Weather Narrative…as of Tuesday evening: Stable and somewhat dry trade winds continue to slowly weaken, as a cold front 800 miles northwest of Kauai pushes a surface high eastward. A slowly eroding ridge over the islands is maintaining stable conditions, and rainfall has been modest and focused over windward areas.

Winds will weaken considerably tonight and begin to shift out of the east to east-southeast as surface low pressure develops along the stalling front, roughly 800 to 900 miles north of Kauai. No significant rainfall is expected, and offshore flowing land breezes could push most showers offshore in the predawn hours.

The low will intensify and drift to about 700 miles north of Kauai on Wednesday. Since this feature will be somewhat far away from the islands, local winds will shift out of the southeast to south, but are only expected to be at gentle to moderate strength. As a result, expect afternoon sea breezes to overpower the background flow along north shores, and generate isolated interior showers in the afternoon. Stability will be decreasing, though heavy showers are not expected at this time.

A humid southerly flow will bring increased chances for widespread rainfall Wednesday night through at least Thursday. The low be at its strongest and closest to the islands at this time, possibly within 600 miles north of Kauai. A moderate southerly wind flow will draw up an area of deep tropical moisture over the islands. This could lead to a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, favoring the western half of the island chain, but possibly extending as far east as Maui.

Due to the southerly flow, leeward areas, which tend have a lower threshold for flooding, could be exposed to potentially heavy rainfall. High resolution guidance has yet to produce a concise picture of a flood threat, though the highest chances would be late Wednesday night and early Thursday. The NWS has held off on issuing a Flood Watch until we see better model agreement. While gusty downsloping winds are typically a concern in this setup, the flow does not appear to be strong enough for winds to reach advisory levels.

The low will stall and begin to gradually weaken roughly 700 miles northwest of Kauai on Friday. The jet stream on its eastern flank will retreat north of the islands. This will reduce upper level support for widespread heavy rainfall. However, light southerly winds will persist, with daytime sea breezes supporting spotty afternoon showers, and dew points hovering in the low to mid 70’s.

The humid flow will gradually shift out of the southeast on Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that the highest rainfall chances will be along a weak surface convergence zone near Oahu and Kauai, and ridging aloft will build in from the east and provide increased stability for at least Big Island. The low is expected to fill as it lifts off to the northeast Sunday. Aside from the possibility of variable winds on Kauai, conditions should be similar to Saturday.

Light trade winds are favored to return next Monday.

Fire Weather:  Gentle to moderate breezy trades will continue a slow decline today, with humidity just above the critical threshold this afternoon. Fire weather risk diminishes through Friday as southerly winds bring increased moisture and humidity. The inversion should range from 6-8,000 feet today and deteriorate Wednesday.

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Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Looping Surface Precipitation…through the next 8-days / Vog Map

 

Marine Conditions…as of Tuesday evening: Winds will weaken today as a low pressure system and an associated cold front develops north of the state and approaches from the northwest. A trough extending from this low is forecast to move into the northwest offshore waters by Thursday. The low will stall north of the islands and draw moisture out of the tropics and over the area through the second half of the week, so expect an increase in showers with moderate south to southeast winds. The trough could potentially linger into the weekend.

Offshore buoy observations show a southerly swell, which will push surf for south-facing shores close to advisory level by this afternoon and last through tonight. By Wednesday, this swell will begin to fade. Surf is then likely to be held near seasonal averages for the remainder of the week, maintained by a mix of new, small south swells.

A long-period northwest swell will arrive today, pushing surf for north-facing shores up tonight to near moderate levels on Wednesday. Small to moderate surf is then forecast through the rest of the week even as swell energy becomes shorter period, since it will be reinforced by a low to the north-northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak.

A small, long-period west swell originating from Typhoon Choi-wan is forecast to reach the islands Thursday into the weekend, which may produce moderate surf for west-facing shores.

 

>>> Highest Temperature Tuesday, October 6, 2026 – 109 degrees at Death Valley, CA


>>>
Lowest Temperature Tuesday, October 6, 2026 – 19 degrees at Mount Washington, NH

 

Hawaii Travel: Nature's Beauty and Island Life


World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 



>>>
Here’s a link to the latest Pacific Disaster Center’s
Weather Wall



Atlantic Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones


Caribbean Sea:
There are no active tropical cyclones


Gulf of America:

Tropical Cyclone 09L…is located about 605 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN

According to the NHC advisory number 2 

The depression is moving toward the east near 5 mph. An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

cone graphic

 

Northeast Pacific

Tropical cyclone 18E (Rachel) is located about 695 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

RACHEL HOLDING STEADY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC

According to the NHC advisory number 40 

Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

cone graphic

 

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

Invest 92E

A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

 

>>> South of Guatemala:

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…near…0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

 

Central North Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Nolo) is located about 388 NM south-southeast of Wake Island

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/ep1526.gif

 

Tropical Cyclone 26W(Choi-Wan)…is located approximately 461 NM east-southeast of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning

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Tropical Cyclone 27W(Koguma)…is located approximately 282 NM south-southwest of Wake Island

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Southwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

 

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Here’s the link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting: 
How Cutting Emissions May Limit Antarctic Ice Loss and Protect Coastlines

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions now may limit how much ice Antarctica loses this century and reduce the rise in seas facing coastal communities, according to findings from a new study.

The research, reported in Nature Geoscience by an international team of scientists, including Rutgers climate scientist Robert Kopp, provides evidence that decisions about emissions today can influence how much water Antarctica adds to the oceans by 2100.

The team found at least an 89% probability that the most ambitious low emission goal that fit the objectives of the Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change adopted in 2015, would result in less Antarctic ice loss by the end of the century than very high emissions.

Read more at: Rutgers University