The latest update to this website was at 810am, Wednesday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday morning:

0.67  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
1.61  Hakipuu Mauka, Oahu
0.74  Molokai AP, Molokai
0.40  Lanai City, Lanai
0.95  Lahaina, Maui
0.63  Puuanahulu, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday morning:

09  Port Allen, Kauai
09  Palehua, Oahu
08  Makaena, Molokai
10  Lanai 1, Lanai
09  Olowalu, Maui
13  Mauna Loa Obs, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

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Thunderstorms south, cold front far northwestTropical Cyclone’s Octave and Priscilla are located far east 

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

High and middle level clouds to the south

 

 

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https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

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Showers locally…some quite heavy 

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Wednesday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii.

It’s mostly clear although with some clouds locally here in Maui County early this morning. The low temperature at my place was 54.5 degrees…with a relative humidity of 85%.

810am, I’ve skipped my morning walk, darn it, as it’s too voggy here on Maui this morning. I can barely see the West Maui Mountains from here in Kula.

 

Weather Wit of the day: Norwegian Meteorologist – A fjordcasters

 

>>> Highest Temperature Tuesday, October 7, 2025 – 100 south of Yuma, Arizona
>>> Lowest Temperature Wednesday, October 8, 2025 – 18 near Calpet, WY

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview: A decaying trough of low pressure laying across the state will maintain light east-southeast or variable breezes through Thursday. Moisture pooled along the trough will keep moderate to high rain chances alive in the short term, with the highest probabilities of precipitation focused along the western half of the island chain. Trades will return Friday as this weak trough washes out, and surface high pressure northeast of the state re-establishes a tight downstream gradient over the region.

Hawaii’s Weather Details:  A wet Wednesday morning for some parts of the state under weak southern steering flow. Many sites over the island of Oahu and Maui County picked up around a quarter of an inch to nearly two inches the past 12 hours from showers moving up from the south. The highest rainfall has fallen over western central Oahu where the Waianae Mountains picked up over an inch since Tuesday afternoon. Central Oahu has received the most overnight rain with Mililani measuring over an inch and a half of rain. Pukalani and Lahaina on the isle of Maui, as well as central Molokai and Lanai, have also received their fair share of rain, at around an inch since Tuesday’s sunset. A welcome wetting has occurred over many areas that have been suffering through moderate to severe drought.

While showers will become less frequent the next couple of days, this unsettled weather pattern will hold through Friday. The main cause to this wet pattern has been the presence of higher moisture. There’s beem an above normal precipitable water air mass of around 1.4 inches (1.3 inch median for early October), in tandem with a diffuse low level trough shutting off trade flow, have allowed localized breezes to interact with terrain and weak background southerly flow, to provide sufficient lift in producing frequent showers. Much of the rain is traveling in from the ocean within well organized bands/cells of warm low clouds, and maintaining their structure as they pass north across Hawaii.

The latest balloon soundings again confirm the existence of a deep near 8,000 foot moistened boundary layer. This is a depth that is certainly capable of creating thicker clouds and higher shower probabilities, even up in higher Maui and Big Island elevations, the next couple of days. The decaying broad low level boundary laying northeast- to-southwest, has disrupted trade flow and the benign gradient over the state has allowed localized breezes to play more of a role. Periods of sun warming the surface under partly cloudy conditions will enhance late morning into early afternoon sea breezes. Lift generated by these breezes will build clouds that will ultimately lead to more precipitation within better wind-sheltered leeward/ south-facing areas.

As the boundary lifts north through Thursday, the general southeast-south flow will tap into a more moisture rich southern air mass and produce solid moderate precipitation probabilities. Higher rain chances within lower clouds will likely occur along the western half of the state, and focus along more southern coasts and upslope (leeward) mountains. The weakness in the pressure field over the state will fade away by Friday. Once this occurs, surface high pressure off the U.S. Pacific Northwest Coast will exert more of an influence, and re-establish a gradient that will produce light to moderate trades this weekend. More overcast and rain will regulate maximum low to mid 80 temperatures, while overnight offshore flowing breezes will compensate for insulating clouds as near sunrise temperatures dip into the low to mid 70’s near sea level.

Mid to upper level ridging, as well as an associated drier air mass, will begin to expand up from the southeast and envelope the state. This will provide a bit more regional stability and possibly peg Friday and Saturday as the driest days of the week. Lobes of more humid air may rotate in around the southern periphery of mid-level ridging, positioned northeast of the state early next week. The second week of October may not be as unsettled as this week, but it appears that a more wet trade pattern sets up Sunday through mid next week, as rounds of showers move in from the east on this re-established trade flow.

Fire weather:  Weak localized and/or variable breezes and a higher frequency of showers will help maintain below critical fire weather thresholds the next several days. Inversion heights across the state will range from as low as 5,000 to as high as 9,000 feet.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment:  A trough draped over the coastal waters will continue to slowly drift northwest during the next several days, and bring light south or southeast flow across all waters. This flow should also give way to land and sea breezes that will be observed over the nearshore waters. Gentle to moderate easterly trades will return by the weekend and continue into early next week, as high pressure builds far northeast of the state.

The current small, medium period, north-northwest swell will be down from previous days and continue to fade through the weeks end. Thus, surf along north-facing shores will remain near or below the October average through most of the week. Forerunners from the next, more significant moderate, long period northwest swell are forecast to arrive by mid day Sunday, with the event lasting through early to mid next week. During its peak, surf along north-facing shores may approach High Surf Advisory criteria.

Background south-southwest swell energy will bring tiny to small surf along south-facing shores. A small, long period south southwest (190-200 degree) swell will fill in Thursday morning, and bring a slight increase to surf along south-facing shores through late Friday.

Below average surf along east-facing shores is expected for the remainder of this week as weak flow prevails. There will be a little boost by this weekend as trades return. In addition, a small, medium to long period, easterly swell from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla in the East Pacific, is forecast to arrive late Saturday into Sunday.

Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through this weekend. Coastal flooding will coincide with the daily peak tide each morning. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all coastal areas through Friday, but will likely need to be extended.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone Jerry…is located about 750 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands

JERRY A LITTLE STRONGER…EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT

According to the NHC advisory number 5

Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is expected late Thursday into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

cone graphic

 

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Southwestern Gulf:

>>> Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Bay of Campeche. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent 
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

 

Northeastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Octave)…is located about 660 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA 

OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY

According to the NHC advisory number 34

Octave is moving toward the east near 12 mph. A gradual turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Octave is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

cone graphic

                

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Priscilla)…is located about 195 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

PRISCILLA BRINGING HIGH SURF AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR

According to the NHC advisory number 16 

Priscilla is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. Los Cabos International Airport in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph with a gust to 49 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

cone graphic

 

South of Southern Mexico:

Invest 90E

>>> A large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms remains disorganized near and to the west of a broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and interests there should monitor its progress. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to localized flooding.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

 

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Halong)…is located approximately 229 NM south of Camp Fuji

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2825.gif

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Nakri)…is located approximately 340 NM southwest of Iwo To

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2925.gif

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Panama Canal May Face Frequent Extreme Water Lows in Coming Decades

A new study found historic droughts could become common for gatún lake, the main source of water for the Panama canal locks.

In 2023, Panama experienced one of the worst droughts in its recorded history, and it severely depleted water available to the Panama Canal, so much that it decreased shipping by 30%. A new study projected that those historic water lows could become the new norm if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

“If we mitigate emissions and we choose one of the lower emissions pathways, then it really keeps this system pretty stable,” said Samuel Muñoz, lead author of the study and a scientist at Northeastern. “But if we don’t, then these low water levels that are really disruptive now become the norm by the end of the century.”

The canal works by pulling water from freshwater sources such as Gatún Lake, a large man-made lake that also provides drinking water to thousands of residents in nearby Panama City and Colón.

Read More: American Geophysical Union