The latest update to this website was at 505pm Friday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

0.44  Lower Limahuli, Kauai
0.58  Lyon, Oahu
0.57  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.34  Waikamoi Treeline, Maui
0.83  Hilo AP, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:

33  Port Allen, Kauai
45  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31  Makapulapai, Molokai
35  Lanai 1, Lanai
56  Na Kula, Maui
53  Puuloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Thunderstorms in the deeper tropics…cold front far northwest 

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

 Mostly clear to partly cloudy…along with high and middle level clouds south

 

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Showers locally 

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Aloha Friday comments:  I’m here at my friend’s house in Corte Madera, Marin County, California

It’s partly cloudy here in Marin County early this morning. The low temperature was 44 degrees.

>>> Be careful, as this windy and dry weather is dangerous for fire outbreaks…especially in the afternoon hours.

I played Pickleball this morning in Mill Valley, which is always very fun! Linda and I stopped by my favorite store in the whole world after playing, which is called Good Earth.

Weather Wit of the day: Bird Migrations – Poultry in motion

Interesting Blog: Mauka Showers – Flash Floods in Hawaii – NWS Short Lead Time Products

>>> Highest Temperature Thursday, October 23, 2025 – 101 at Rio Grande, Texas
>>> Lowest Temperature Friday, October 24, 2025 – 15 near Hinckley, MN

 

2025 Dry Season Rainfall Summary for Hawaii (May through September 2025)

> The dry season forecast favored above normal precipitation across Kauai and Oahu, below normal precipitation for the Big Island, and equal chances of above, below, and near normal precipitation across Maui County.
> Rainfall totals for the season were mostly below average for Maui County and the Big Island (except the Kona district, which has a typical summer rainfall maximum), near to below average for Oahu, and near to slightly above average for Kauai.
> Drought conditions (D1 or greater) changed little in terms of areal coverage through the dry season, with around 70% of the state affected. Drought severity increased most significantly over the Hamakua and Kau districts of the Big Island, as well as the windward and leeward coasts of Oahu.
> Overall, the 2025 season ranked as the 3rd driest in the last 30 years (average rankings from 8 representative sites around the state)
> 2010 was the driest in the last 30 years, with 2007 coming in 2nd.

 

Wet Season (October 2025 through April 2026) Outlook

> From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): La Niña Advisory in effect. La Niña conditions emerged in September 2025 and are expected to continue through the January – February 2026 period, with a transition to ENSO neutral likely in the January – March 2026 period (55% chance). Probabilities favor a weak La Niña event (Niño-3.4 index value at or between -0.5°C and -0.9°C).
> Rainfall forecast: Consistent with a cold-season La Niña event, the climate model consensus supports enhanced probabilities for above normal rainfall through early spring 2026, with the greatest probabilities over the northwestern half of the state.
> Rainfall amount and distribution can be influenced by the strength of La Niña
> Weaker La Niña events have generally favored above normal rainfall during winter in Hawaii in recent decades (since 1980s), with the potential for more weather systems capable of producing widespread significant rainfall.
> However, weak La Niña events do not necessarily result in Hawaii’s wettest wet seasons on record.
> Moderate to strong events have favored below normal rainfall in general, with greater trade wind frequency, focusing rain on windward slopes.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview: This evening and tonight, enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across windward portions of the Big Island and the eastern coastal waters. Windy trades will continue through the night, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the typically windy places of Maui County and the Big Island.

An upper level low drifting from east to west across the state will pull deeper tropical moisture over the islands, increasing humidity and shower trends and finally bringing an end to fire weather concerns by Saturday evening. Trade winds will decrease throughout the weekend, dropping back to moderate levels through much of next week.

Hawaii’s Weather Details: An interesting and somewhat complex weather pattern is expected over the next 48 hours, with multiple different weather hazards in effect for various parts of the state.

An area of surface high pressure centered far north of the island chain is expected to slightly strengthen as it continues to slide eastward. Locally, this has translated into a windy trade wind day, with observations across many of the typically windy locations of Maui County and the Big Island showing sustained wind speeds in excess of 30 mph and/or gusts over 50 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Kahoolawe, most of Lanai, West and Central Maui including South Haleakala, and the Big Island including the Kohala and Kau Districts as well as the Humuula Saddle area through tonight.

On Saturday, the high to our north will be located farther east, and it is also expected to weaken a bit compared to today and tonight. As a result, trade wind speeds across the island chain will remain gusty on Saturday, but will also gradually decline throughout the day.

In addition to the gusty winds, efficient mixing of dry air aloft down to the surface within a stable airmass over the islands, has created fire weather concerns across all leeward areas, as well as central and interior sections of some islands, over the past couple of days. Surface observations show that Red Flag Warning criteria was met this afternoon with relative humidity values dropping into the low 40 percent range. The Red Flag Warning that is currently in effect has been allowed to continue for one more day.

With that being said, latest model guidance suggests that enhanced moisture will begin moving into the eastern end of the state this into Saturday. However, it remains possible that drier air could linger over at least some islands into early Saturday afternoon, corresponding with maximum daytime heating and winds that remain above critical fire weather thresholds. With uncertainty still surrounding the timing of increased humidity levels over the islands, the Red Flag Warning remains unchanged for now, but interests should continue to monitor for any future updates that may be necessary.

Meanwhile, this evening through tonight, a mid- to upper-level low will move westward over the Big Island, and will be located just west of the state around sunrise Saturday morning. Latest satellite imagery shows clouds upstream of the Big Island in the vicinity of the upper low, at this time are beginning to become more robust as they approach the eastern Hawaiian coastal waters. As this cluster of clouds approaches windward areas of the Big Island this evening, it could produce some enhanced showers as it interacts with the Big Island terrain and the low aloft moves overhead.

Further destabilization is expected, therefore, isolated thunderstorms have been included in the forecast for the Big Island and the eastern coastal waters throughout the night, as southerly flow begins to draw moisture northward and precipitable water values begin to increase. The latest rainfall rate probabilities are also hinting that some showers or thunderstorms this evening into tonight could produce rainfall rates in excess of 0.50 inch per hour along windward Big Island. Heavy rain has also been introduced into the forecast, corresponding to the areas of isolated thunder chances.

Of note, although the threat for flash flooding across windward Big Island this evening is very low, it is non-zero. Chances for snow and/or freezing rain have also been introduced for the Big Island summits, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to account for potential snow and ice accumulations for the summits through the next couple of days.

On Saturday, southerly winds aloft, along the east side of the upper low, will pull additional moisture across the eastern islands from the deep tropics, likely creating an abrupt end to fire weather concerns at some point on Saturday. Humidity levels and instability will increase across the state with this passing upper low, resulting in continued enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern end of the island chain, as well as the western edge of the coastal waters.

Trade wind speeds continue to weaken into the light to moderate range from Sunday night through much of next week, as the ridge north of the islands weakens in response to a passing cold frontal system farther to the north. More stable conditions move back into the islands with brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours through Tuesday. By Wednesday another upper low will move over the western islands, enhancing overnight to early morning shower statewide through the end of next week.

Fire weather: Windy trades will continue into Saturday, along with drier humidity levels ahead of a surge of enhanced moisture that will arrive during the day. Confidence in reaching Red Flag Warning criteria on Saturday is lower than it was for today, as it will largely depend on how quickly an upper low moving over the islands begins to increase humidity levels statewide.

Regardless, at this time confidence was not high enough to warrant cancelling the Red Flag Warning for Saturday, as it is possible that at least leeward areas of the western islands could maintain dry conditions well into Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally begin to decrease on Saturday, though they will still remain above critical fire weather thresholds. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning remains in effect through Saturday afternoon. Beyond that, a significant increase in moisture and a decrease in trade wind speeds will mitigate fire weather concerns through the rest of the weekend and into next week.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment: Large surface high pressure located northwest of the state has created a very tight pressure gradient back toward the islands. This has and will result in fresh to near gale force trade winds through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all coastal waters to account for, not only these strong winds, but also for fully-developed seas building to around 10 feet through Saturday afternoon. As the high drifts eastward through the day, fresh trades may pick up a bit more tonight into Saturday morning. The strongest winds will be through Maui County’s channels and bays and south of Big Island where sustained winds will occasionally approach gale force.

Winds will gradually lower from late Saturday through Monday as a cold front impinges on the high as it reaches the East Pacific. Trades are forecast to be back down to gentle to moderate speeds by Monday. Winds should hold at these lighter magnitudes going into the middle of next week.

A reinforcing north-northwest (330 degree) swell, similar in size to the swell that peaked yesterday morning, is timed to reach the islands later this afternoon or evening. This swell will lift north and west-facing shore surf close to High Surf Advisory levels during its peak tonight. This swell will fall from Saturday afternoon into early Monday, followed by a quick hitting smaller pulse Monday.

Fresh to strong trades has produced a rough chop along most eastern facing exposures and these rough conditions will persist through Saturday night. Nearshore PacIOOS buoys are depicting high easterly energy in the lower spectral bands; around 6 feet at under 9 second periods today. Trades may strengthen a touch more later tonight into early Saturday. If so, the local easterly fetch over and just upstream of the islands, in tandem with a northwest swell wrap, may produce elevated near advisory eastern shore surf of near 10 feet. Despite some northerly swell wrap by the middle of next week, weakened trades will allow wind wave surf to subside to seasonable heights next week.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Caribbean Sea: 

Tropical Cyclone Melissa…is located about 245 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT MELISSA IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

cone graphic

According to the NHC advisory number 15

Melissa is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph. A turn to the west is forecast on Saturday, and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected to begin later tonight or on Saturday, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

 

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Northeastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 18E…is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

According to the NHC advisory number 2

The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph. A west to west-northwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. A weakening trend is expected to commence by early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chenge) is located approximately 702 NM north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0426.gif

Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Using Kelp as Fertilizer

Kelp shows great promise for improving soil health and crop production in Alaska. Potential benefits include increased nutrient availability, improved soil pH, increased seed germination rates and increased crop biomass.

In a free webinar, Erin Oliver, a postdoctoral researcher with Washington State University, will discuss the lab and field studies conducted at the Matanuska Experiment Farm to investigate the effects of kelp on soil health and crop production. The webinar is hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks Cooperative Extension Service.

The goal of the lab and field studies is to determine the best method for applying kelp to Alaska soils. Using Alaska-grown kelp in agricultural soils provides both economic benefits for the mariculture industry and an alternative to commercial, inorganic fertilizers produced outside of Alaska. Studies have found that the benefits of kelp vary by soil type and amendment rates, but little research has been done in Alaska on this subject.

Read more at: University of Alaska Fairbanks