The latest update to this website was at 906pm Thursday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

1.98  Hanamaulu, Kauai
3.85  Poamoho, Oahu
4.28  Honolimaloo, Molokai
1.41  Lanai City, Lanai
4.04  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.09  Waikii, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

28  Nawiliwili, Kauai – SE
32  Kuaokala, Oahu – SE
23  Anapuka, Molokai – NNW
23  Lanai 1,  Lanai – SSE
23  Kahului AP, Maui – SW
23  Mauna Loa Obs, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Inclement weather conditions…becoming more serious Friday into the weekend

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

Clouds moving into the state from the west…localized thunderstorms

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

  Heavy duty rain bands moving across the state locally

 

Please open this link to see details on the current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Thursday comments:  I’m here at home in upper Kula, Maui

It’s partly to mostly cloudy early this morning here at my location, with a low temperature of 57 degrees, and the relative humidity is 82%. I just saw a flash of lightning!

735am, we had a brief shower here in upper Kula a few minutes ago. There’s an active thunderstorm over the West Maui Mountains, and I saw lightning and heard thunder just now!

110pm, cloudy with light rain here in upper Kula, with the temperature a fairly mild 68.9 degrees, and the relative humidity 75%

241pm, the rain has stopped with the weather turned foggy here in upper Kula, temperature 66.2 degrees

555pm, cloudy with a light shower here in upper Kula, as I just got back from my final walk of the day as fog and the shower arrived. The temperature here at my place is 62.4 degrees, with the relative humidity 73%

715pm, despite the forecast of these pile driver gusty kona winds, I’m totally calm at my place. It’s cloudy although it’s not raining. I snuck in my last walk of the day, just before the last light shower moved in…along with dense fog.

755pm, it’s been calm all day, and just now I had a gust of wind arrive.

903pm, the wind is definitely picking up here at my place, not radical by any means, although compared to the dead calm all day, there are gusts that are making my windows whistle.

 

 

NWS Weather Prediction Center as of Thursday:

Prolonged and Powerful Kona Storm To Bring Numerous Impacts Across Hawaii into Next Week

A high-impact and potentially life-threatening weather pattern will continue to unfold across Hawaii into early next week. Model guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution of the powerful Kona storm centered a little over 1,000 miles northwest of the island chain. At the surface, a broad cyclonic circulation with central pressures at or below 990 millibars will remain positioned to the northwest of the islands that results in strengthening winds.

A potent, large-scale trough aloft will sharpen as a 120-140 knot jet streak on its western flank digs southeast. This configuration will foster a prolonged period of significant large-scale upper-level divergence and thus deep-layer ascent, which will maintain widespread areas of organized convection with embedded thunderstorms for several days.

Precipitable water values peak between 2.00-2.25″+ by Friday (3 to 5 standardized anomalies greater than climatology for mid-March) and Saturday. The concern will be with the likely additional heavy rainfall on soils that are already near saturation, and therefore the risk of significant flash flooding statewide.

The latest model output continues to underscore the extreme nature of this event, the maximum possible anomaly. Moreover, the 24-hr precipitation return periods for several models over the weekend, when average 24hr rainfall peaks between 3-6+ inches, suggest a 25 to 50 year average recurrence interval.

 

Weather Wit of the day:   If one more person tells me our winters are getting warmer, I’ll hit him with the biggest thing I can find…my heating bill.

 

>>> Highest Temperature Thursday, March 12, 2026 – 99 degrees near North Shore, CA
>>> Lowest Temperature Thursday, March 12, 2026 – minus 3 degrees near Big Bay, MI

 

>>> I’m keeping my cell phone and other devices charged up as much as possible, between now and when the worst of this upcoming storm activity is finished with us.

>>> If or when my power goes off, or I lose connectivity, I obviously won’t be able to continue the updating of this website. However, once one or the other returns, rest assured that I’ll immediately begin the normal updating procedures.

 

>>> Heavy showers approaching Kauai and Oahu from the southwest.
>>> Flood Watch entire state through Saturday, High Wind Warning smaller islands+Big Island summit/Haleakala
>>> Intense showers and thunderstorms arriving soon (Kauai and Oahu), early Friday morning (Maui) and Friday afternoon Big Island
>>> Impacts include major flooding, damaging winds and potentially severe thunderstorms (small hail, isolated waterspouts/tornadoes)

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview…as of 848pm Thursday: A powerful kona storm will near the state producing periods of hazardous weather impacts through the weekend. Expect a combination of threats ranging from significant flash flooding, damaging winds, strong to severe thunderstorms, and snow and ice over the highest Big Island summits. Southerly to southwesterly kona winds will be strongest Friday to Saturday, and will produce damaging wind gusts.

The highest threats for damaging winds remain along north and east of the island mountains. Unsettled wet weather conditions with decreasing southwesterly wind trends will continue into early next week. This kona storm begins to lift northward on Monday, and unsettled weather will start to ease across the Hawaii region. High pressure will build back in north of the state on Wednesday, allowing trade winds to return spreading from north to south down the island chain.

Short Term Update…as of 848pm Thursday: A powerful kona storm remains in place northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The big picture satellite imagery shows several upper level lows and troughs rotating around the larger low pressure complex. The large scale weather threats will pulse up and down as each of these upper level troughs dig into the islands, producing smaller scale convective heavy shower and thunderstorm banding features. The heaviest rainfall rates will fall along these developing small scale heavy rain bands. Additionally, any thunderstorms developing within these bands are capable of reaching up into the upper atmosphere, and pulling down strong winds aloft down to the ground, producing strong and damaging wind gusts potentially ranging from 50 to 70 mph at times.

These larger scale instability related trends will ramp-up with the increasing wind speeds tonight through Saturday. Damaging winds and severe thunderstorm threats will also follow this time line. Flooding threats from heavy rain will continue and may develop at any time at least through Sunday morning. Current weather trends in this pattern will change rapidly, these threats to life and property will develop swiftly and can affect any location in the Hawaiian Islands. Postpone outdoor activities or travel if possible until early next week, as the kona storm begins to drift northward away from the islands, and the threat level across the state diminishes.

Hawaii’s Weather Details…as of 344pm Thursday: Latest satellite imagery shows a complex surface low 1500 miles northwest of Kauai, with bands of widely scattered to numerous moderate thunderstorms along the eastern flank of the complex. One of these bands with isolated moderate thunderstorms is currently moving through the state producing widespread light to moderate showers along the the west Big Island coast, and moving north over the island of Maui.

A brief break in the rain will occur after this band moves through, with another band setting up right behind this one with a north-northeast track. Latest high resolution model guidance shows moderate to heavy showers reorganizing and training from south to north over Kauai early this evening, with the passage of this second band of showers. Increasing probability of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours, as the kona low sags southeast and upper level dynamics intensify, leading to showers intensifying and slowly spreading from Kauai to Oahu overnight and early morning Friday.

Expect a well organized band of moderate to heavy showers to spread state-wide Friday associated with the kona low. In addition, southwesterly kona winds will ramp-up with wind speeds up into the 50 to 70 mph range around the 5,000 foot level, as the kona low inches closer to the state. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the smaller islands and for the summits of Haleakala and the Big Island, as strong southwesterly winds develop around Kauai and then spread through Maui County through the day Friday.

A High Wind Watch for the lower elevations of the Big Island remains in effect as stronger winds may not arrive till Friday afternoon or evening. Already saturated ground conditions and trees unaccustomed to southwest kona winds will fall and likely cause blocked roadways and lead to power outages. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the summits of the Big Island, as increasing chances of precipitation and freezing temperatures aloft will generate periods of heavy snow into the weekend.

High levels of instability, wind shear and atmospheric forcing ingredients are all coming into focus over the islands Friday through Saturday, for a potential severe weather event. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for Friday through Saturday time period. Outside of terrain enhancing wind gusts any strong thunderstorms are capable of producing severe hurricane force wind gusts over islands or coastal waters through Saturday.

From Saturday night to Sunday another upper level trough passes over the islands, leading to another upward pulse in moderate to heavy shower activity. Thunderstorms will also threaten the islands and become more of a flooding threat, as decreasing upper level and surface wind speeds diminish the damaging wind gust threats. The threat for Flash Flooding will continue into the weekend due to both saturated soil conditions, that more easily lead to ground runoff and flooding from even more moderate continuous rainfall rates.

The highest flood threats across the state will favor southern and western slopes of all islands. These are typically the drier sides of the islands, less accustomed to heavy rain and flooding. Driving under these heavy shower bands will become challenging with ponding of water on area roadways. A Flood Watch continues for all Hawaiian Islands into Saturday, this Flood Watch may need to be extended in time as the heavy rainfall threat may linger into Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday, the large kona storm begins to lift northward drifting slowly away from the Hawaiian Islands. This means wet weather continues, however moderate to heavy rainfall rates will decrease and southwest kona winds will gradually weaken through the first half of next week.

By Wednesday, the latest long range guidance shows a high pressure system building back into position just north of the island chain, allowing a return to a typical trade wind weather pattern, with more typical brief passing showers over windward mountain areas.

 

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – Zoom Earth – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment…as of 344pm Thursday: A powerful kona storm will continue to bring heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas to the Hawaiian coastal and offshore waters into the weekend. Southerly winds will strengthen tonight into the weekend, with gale-force winds possible. A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters near Kauai and Oahu with gale-force winds forecast Friday and Friday night. Winds are expected to near Maui County Saturday and Saturday night to near gale-force, so a Gale Watch has been posted for those areas during that time. These strong to gale-force winds will last into the weekend in association with a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms pushing eastward across the forecast area associated with the kona storm.

A series of small, short to medium period west-northwest swells will bring small surf to north and west facing shores through the remainder of the week. Kauai will block some of this swell energy from reaching Oahu and Maui, but it will make it into the west facing shores of the Big Island. The next west-northwest swell is expected to build Friday into the weekend. Additionally, a small, medium period, north swell is expected to arrive tonight and continue into the weekend.

Rough and choppy surf will continue along south-facing shores due to the southerly wind direction. These south winds will intensify tonight into Friday, causing south shore surf to build Friday into the weekend, likely reaching advisory levels. Once southerly winds diminish early next week, a small to moderate, long-period south swell generated by a gale force low east-southeast of New Zealand will arrive along south-facing shores and build into mid-week.

Choppy surf along east-facing shores will continue to trend downward and remain below seasonal levels as south to southeast winds prevail.

 

What to do in Oahu, Hawaii | National Geographic



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Northeastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Marine Plastic Pollution Alters Octopus Predator-Prey Encounters

More than 350,000 chemicals are used worldwide, and many find their way into the ocean through plastic pollution. As plastics accumulate in coastal waters, they continuously leach bioactive additives that can interfere with the chemical cues marine animals rely on to find food, avoid predators, choose habitats and communicate.

One such chemical, oleamide, is an industrial lubricant in plastics like polyethylene and polypropylene. As these plastics degrade, oleamide seeps into the water. But it’s not just industrial: oleamide is naturally produced by many organisms and influences sleep in mammals, acts as a pheromone in some marine species, and closely resembles oleic acid – a cue tied to death and scavenging in arthropods like crabs. By mimicking natural signals, oleamide may quietly alter how marine life senses food and interacts with one another.

To understand these effects, Florida Atlantic University researchers studied how plastic-derived oleamide influences predator-prey behavior. They focused on a common South Florida octopus (Octopus vulgaris), a key mesopredator, and observed its responses to four widespread prey: hermit crabs, free-living crabs, snails and clams.

Read more at: Florida Atlantic University

Madelyn A. Hair returns an octopus to its capture site after participating in the study.