The latest update to this website was at 612am Monday (HST)

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday morning:

9.31  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.71  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.04  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.33  West Wailuaiki, Maui
3.19  Honolii Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Monday morning:

18  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai – SE
29  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – SE 
27  Makapulapai, Molokai – ESE
18  Lanai 1,  Lanai – NE
22  Na Kula, Maui – E 
23  Lalamilo, Big Island – NE 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

A deepening trough of low pressure northwest of the state…along with a cold front

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

Variable low clouds…increasing clouds moving into the state from the west

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

  Showers locally 

 

Please open this link to see details on the current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Monday comments:  I’m here at home in upper Kula, Maui

It’s mostly clear early this morning here at my location, with a chilly low temperature of 49 degrees, and the relative humidity is 80%.

 

Hydrologic Outlook as of 310m Monday – National Weather Service Honolulu HI:

POWERFUL KONA STORM EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE STATE THIS WEEK

A large kona low developing northwest of the state over the next couple of days will draw a very moist southerly air mass northward across the islands. This will bring periods of heavy rain And thunderstorms along with an increasing risk of considerable flash flooding.

A Flood Watch has been issued for Kauai County and Oahu beginning Tuesday as the surge of deep tropical moisture arrives. As the storm strengthens and spreads eastward, the flooding threat will expand down the island chain and the Flood Watch will likely be extended to include Maui County and the Big Island by midweek.

Additional surges of deep moisture are possible Friday into the weekend, which would prolong the flooding threat across the state. While it is still too early to determine specific rainfall totals, confidence is increasing that considerable flooding impacts are possible.

Now would be a good time to clear storm drains, culverts, and other drainage areas of debris to help reduce localized flooding.

NWS Weather Prediction Center as of Monday: 

Prolonged and Powerful Kona Storm To Bring Numerous Impacts Across Hawaii This Week into Next Weekend

A high-impact and potentially life-threatening weather pattern will unfold across Hawaii this week, as a powerful and slow-moving Kona Low develops northwest of the state. This system is forecast to bring a prolonged period of torrential rainfall, areas of flash flooding, damaging “Kona” winds, and potentially severe thunderstorms with large hail. The combination of a deep upper-level trough and a plume of deep tropical moisture will result in statewide impacts beginning Tuesday across the western islands, spreading eastward and persisting through the upcoming weekend.

In terms of the guidance, the global models and their respective ensembles remain in remarkably good agreement regarding the large-scale evolution of this event.   Kauai will experience the initial arrival of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, with the activity spreading eastward to Oahu and Maui by Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday. Flash flooding is a primary concern as rainfall rates may exceed 2-3″ per hour within the strongest bands.

During Days 4-7 (Friday through Monday), the concern will be with the likely additional heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils. While the guidance suggests a potential brief lull on Thursday, a second, more vigorous trough is expected by Friday. Friday into Saturday also appears to be the window with the greatest severe weather risk, with potentially damaging southerly winds (50+ mph gusts) on northern and eastern slopes. Lastly, the latest model output continues to indicate an extreme to climatologically rare event for the month of March in Hawaii.  These values suggest that the high-end potential of this Kona storm is significantly outside the realm of “normal” wet season weather.

 

Weather Wit of the day:  Weather Forecasting – The courage of our confusions

 

>>> Highest Temperature Sunday, March 8, 2026 – 94 degrees Laguna Beach, CA
>>> Lowest Temperature Monday, March 9, 2026 – 8 degrees near Stehekin, WA

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview…as of 320am Monday:  A powerful kona storm is expected to impact the state this week into the weekend, bringing numerous hazards across the islands. A combination of the potential for considerable flash flooding, damaging winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms will threaten Hawaii Tuesday through at least Saturday.

The risk for flash flooding could begin as early as Tuesday and Tuesday night over Kauai and Oahu, as deep tropical moisture spreads into the western end of the state. This threat will expand eastward across the state by the latter half of the week, with the likelihood for severe thunderstorms increasing late this week into the weekend.

Hawaii’s Weather Details…as of 320am Monday: A significant transition in the large-scale weather pattern is expected to unfold across the Hawaiian Islands over next couple of days, and continuing through the upcoming weekend. The current dry and relatively stable regime, characterized by moderate east-southeast flow, will persist today. Conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight into Tuesday as a deep upper-level trough amplifies northwest of the islands.

Deterministic models and their respective ensembles remain in strong agreement regarding the evolution of this system. A powerful jet streak with core winds of 100 to 140 knots is forecast to dig southward along the western flank of the trough. As this occurs, the trough will gradually expand toward the island chain through the week.

At the surface, model guidance depicts a broad area of low pressure consolidating northwest of the islands. Central pressures could fall to near 990 millibars while remaining well northwest of the state. The resulting pressure pattern will shift winds across the islands out of a southerly direction, drawing a plume of deep tropical moisture northward across our area.

Precipitable water values are expected to increase into the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range beginning Tuesday across the western islands, then spread eastward across the remainder of the state through mid-week. This pattern will then persist through the upcoming weekend, with precipitable moisture values potentially rising into the 2.0 to 2.3 inch range statewide later this week.

The combination of strong upper-level forcing for ascent, deep tropical moisture, and persistent southerly flow will create a favorable environment for periods of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms. Repeated rounds of convection may occur as smaller disturbances rotate through the broader upper trough, increasing the potential for training rainfall bands along terrain-favored areas.

Flooding concerns are expected to increase statewide as the week progresses, particularly where the heavier rainfall persists over the same areas for multiple days. By late week and next weekend, soils will already be saturated, increasing the likelihood that additional rainfall will produce rapid runoff and dangerous flooding conditions.

In addition to the rainfall threat, strengthening south to southwest kona winds may develop during the latter portion of the week and upcoming weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens between the developing low to the northwest and high pressure to the east. If this materializes, strong and damaging kona winds and localized downslope winds capable of downing trees and power lines will be likely.

While thunderstorms are certainly possible earlier in the event, the environment will become increasingly favorable for severe storms by mid-week.

For the summits of the Big Island, periods of heavy snow with significant accumulations will become possible later in the week through the weekend, likely requiring the issuance of a winter storm watch/warning.

While uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall and storms, confidence continues to increase that the islands will experience a prolonged period of unsettled and potentially impactful weather this week. Residents and interests across the state should continue to monitor forecasts as details regarding the timing and location of impacts become clearer.

 

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – Zoom Earth – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment…as of 320am Monday:  A powerful kona storm is expected to impact the state as heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas are expected to accompany this storm system starting Tuesday into the weekend. Currently, strong high pressure far northeast of the state will drift east, as fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds slowly decline through the day. Winds will begin to veer southerly and increase to fresh to locally strong speeds Tuesday through late this week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. An SCA will likely be issued for western waters later this week as this kona low develops.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually trend downward, then fall below normal levels Tuesday through late this week. A series of small long period west-northwest swells will keep some small surf in place along north and west facing shores during the forecast period. A small medium period north swell is possible late this week.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with the exception of areas exposed to wind swell wrap. Rough and choppy conditions will develop Tuesday and continue through late week, as southerly winds increase in advance of a cold front. A series of small long-period south swells will impact shorelines through late this week.

 

Top 5 Beaches on Maui | Maui Resorts by Sullivan Properties



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Northeastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Study Reveals Climatic Fingerprints of Wildfires and Volcanic Eruptions

Volcanoes and wildfires can inject millions of tons of gases and aerosol particles into the air, affecting temperatures on a global scale. But picking out the specific impact of individual events against a background of many contributing factors is like listening for one person’s voice from across a crowded concourse.

MIT scientists now have a way to quiet the noise and identify the specific signal of wildfires and volcanic eruptions, including their effects on Earth’s global atmospheric temperatures.

In a study appearing this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers report that they detected statistically significant changes in global atmospheric temperatures in response to three major natural events: the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the Australian wildfires in 2019-2020, and the eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific in 2022.

Read More: Massachusetts Institute of Technology