The latest update to this website was at 922pm Wednesday (HST)

 

Here are the highest temperatures Wednesday…and the lowest Wednesday:

84 – 73  Lihue AP, Kauai
82 – 71  Molokai AP, Molokai
86 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 71  Kona AP, Big Island
83 – 67  Hilo, AP, Big Island

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:

1.21  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.63  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.30  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.25  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.70  Waiaha Stream, Big Island

>>> There are lots of new locations that measure rainfall and winds now, here’s a map of all areas for your reference (the map is clickable to zoom in closer)

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:

17  Port Allen, Kauai
38  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24  Makapulapai, Molokai
25  Lanai 1, Lanai
36  Kealaloloa Rg, Maui
29  Kawaihae Rd, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES17-TPW-13-900x540.gif 

 Low pressure system west…thunderstorms in the deeper tropics


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/hi/GEOCOLOR/GOES17-HI-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Low clouds being carried our way on the trade winds

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/hi/13/GOES17-HI-13-600x600.gif

High clouds moving by to our south and north…clipping the Big Island and soon Kauai

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

Localized showers

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Kauai_VIS_loop.gif

Kauai and Oahu (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

Kauai and Oahu (Radar)

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Oahu-Maui_VIS_loop.gif

Oahu and Maui County (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHMO_loop.gif

Oahu and Maui County (Radar)

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_VIS_loop.gif

 Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai, and the Big Island (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Maui County and the Big Island (Radar)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHWA_loop.gif

Big Island (Radar)

 

Model showing precipitation through 8-days (you can slow this animation down)

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Wednesday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii.

It’s mostly clear and with clouds locally along the windward side here in Maui County this morning. The low temperature here at my place was 53 degrees.

906am, and the clouds appear to be gathering force quickly here in some parts of Maui.

415pm, skies are mostly clear down country, although partly cloudy upcountry, at least here on Maui. It’s a mild mannered day in terms of winds, and here in upper Kula, the temperature is a comfortable 75.5 degrees at the time of this writing

7pm, it’s cloudy here in upcountry Maui, and we just had a light shower here in upper Kula.

Weather Wit of the day:  Mostly Sunny – A pretty fair description of the sky

 

>>> 2025 Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Climate Prediction Center announced a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season. The 2025 outlook also indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal.

In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for 1-4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

 

>>> Dry season (May through September 2025) Outlook

— Probabilities (74%) favor ENSO-neutral conditions to persist through the summer and a 50% chance of continuing through October.

— NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s forecast probabilities and model consensus favor above normal precipitation across Kauai and Oahu, below normal precipitation for Big Island, and equal chances of above, below, and near normal precipitation across Maui County through much of the dry season. Toward the end of the dry season and into the start of the 2025–2026 wet season, the forecast shifts towards equal chances of above, below, and near normal precipitation as signals in forecast guidance weaken.

— Precipitation is inherently difficult to forecast during ENSO-neutral conditions due to a lack of a significant driver (El Niño or La Niña) directing the path of weather systems and more predictable impacts.

— April rainfall on Kauai and Oahu may help delay the onset of significant drought and significant wildfire risk. All of Maui County and the Big Island enter the dry season in moderate drought (D1) or worse, with a higher risk for drought continuing or worsening and a higher chance for significant wildfires.

— Impacts are expected to be the worst for non-irrigated agriculture, water systems dependent on surface water diversions, and residents relying on rainfall catchment.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview:  High pressure will meander around far northwest of Hawaii through Saturday, keeping breezy trades blowing. A low aloft approaching the islands from the north will enhance incoming trade wind showers starting tonight, and continuing through Friday. A few downpours are possible, and a rumble or two of thunder can’t be ruled out, mainly for Kauai and Oahu ,which will be closest to the upper low. The holiday weekend will see us trend to much drier and more settled trade wind weather as the upper low moves away.

Hawaii’s Weather Details:  Breezy trade winds over the islands are being generated by a relatively strong and large high, located far north-northwest of Kauai. Models show this high will meander around the same general area through Saturday. Meanwhile, a mid- to upper- level low located much closer, to the north-northwest of Kauai is pushing south-southwest. Global models are in good agreement that this low will settle in near or over the main Hawaiian Islands Thursday.

The low will be accompanied by fairly impressive cold air aloft. However, at the same time, models insist that trades will continue in the boundary layer with bands of low-level moisture riding through from time to time, with one of those noteworthy bands arriving during the day Friday.

This setup will help to enhance incoming bands of clouds and showers riding in on the trades, and might even lead to a couple of brief thundershowers as well (a pattern sometimes known as “thunder trades”). The latest thunder guidance maxes out below 10 percent near Niihau Thursday night, then fades quickly. However, our locally guidance shows probabilities from 10-20 percent over and around Kauai and Oahu, lingering into Friday before dropping as the upper low starts to move away.

Usually in patterns like this, the most favorable areas for thunder are in the ribbons of low-level convergence downwind of the islands, but it’s not impossible to get hefty downpours and a rumble or two windward and mountains too, as trade wind shower areas move in from the east-northeast.

Based on a blend of this data and pattern recognition, there will be a mention of thundershowers in the forecast for portions of Kauai and Oahu tonight through Fri. Interior Big Island will also continue to have a small chance for a couple of upslope thundershowers Thursday afternoon, just like we saw today over the south flank of Mauna Loa where there was a single lightning strike there.

The southern end of the chain should not see as much shower enhancement from the rather compact upper low, but trades will still be somewhat wet from time to time, due to the proximity of the upper low, as any more organized pockets of moisture ride in.

The airmass stabilizes by the holiday weekend as the upper low moves quickly away. Wet trades will become much drier, with fewer clouds and showers, and more sunshine. Trade wind speeds will eventually ease some as the high to the north weakens to a much weaker subtropical ridge by the middle of next week.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Vog map animation

Hawaii’s Marine Environment:  Surface high pressure building in far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trades through at least Friday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui has been extended through late Thursday, but will likely need to be extended through this weekend, as moderate to locally strong trade winds persist.

Surf along south facing shores will remain just below seasonal average through Thursday. A small, long period, south-southwest swell will filter into the area late Thursday, bringing surf near the summer average along south facing shores through Saturday. Surf will then slowly decline Sunday through early next week.

East shore surf will remain near seasonal average during the next couple of days. Tiny surf will prevail along north facing shores this week into the weekend.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Gulf of Mexico:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Northeastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:

>>> An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

North Central Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Glaciers Will Take Centuries to Recover Even if Global Warming Is Reversed, Scientists Warn

New research reveals mountain glaciers across the globe will not recover for centuries – even if human intervention cools the planet back to the 1.5°C limit, having exceeded it.

The research, led by the University of Bristol in the UK and the University of Innsbruck in Austria, presents the first global simulations of glacier change up to 2500 under so-called ‘overshoot’ scenarios, when the planet temporarily exceeds the 1.5°C limit up to 3°C before cooling back down.

The results, published today in Nature Climate Change, show that such a scenario could result in glaciers losing up to 16% more of their mass compared to a world that never crosses the 1.5°C threshold.

Corresponding author Dr Fabien Maussion, Associate Professor in Polar Environmental Change at the University of Bristol, said: “Current climate policies are putting the Earth on a path close to 3°C. It’s clear that such a world is far worse for glaciers than one where the 1.5°C limit is held.

Read more at University of Bristol

Image: Langjökull Ice Cap, Iceland