The latest update to this website was at 426pm Wednesday (HST)

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday afternoon:

7.28  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
4.54  Poamoho, Oahu
2.15  Molokai AP, Molokai
2.04  Lanai
2.19  Kula 1, Maui
1.46  Kealakomo, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday afternoon:

25  Lihue, Kauai – SSE
29  Kuaokala, Oahu – SE
21  Molokai 1, Molokai – SE
17  Lanai 1,  Lanai – SE
32  Summit, Maui – SW
27  Mauna Loa Obs, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

A deepening trough of low pressure northwest of the state

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

Increasing clouds moving into the state from the northwest

 

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https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

  Rain bands moving across the state…many are heavy 

 

Please open this link to see details on the current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Wednesday comments:  I’m here at home in upper Kula, Maui

It’s cloudy and raining early this morning here at my location, with a low temperature of 50 degrees, and the relative humidity is 83%.

925am, it’s cloudy and lightly raining, the temperature here at my place 62.6 degrees, and the relative humidity 83%

1pm, the morning clouds and showers have cleared, with mostly sunny to partly sunny conditions in most areas here in Maui County.

308pm, here in upper Kula the wind is going from almost calm to very strong gusts…I mean exceptionally strong!

 

NWS Weather Prediction Center as of Wednesday morning: 

Prolonged and Powerful Kona Storm To Bring Numerous Impacts Across Hawaii This Week into the Weekend

A high-impact and potentially life-threatening weather pattern will continue to unfold across Hawaii into early next week. Model guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution of the powerful Kona storm centered a little over 1,000 miles northwest of the island chain. At the surface, a broad cyclonic circulation with central pressures of 990 millibars will remain positioned to the northwest, tightening the pressure gradient across the islands.

Aloft, a potent, large-scale trough will sharpen as a 120-140 knot jet streak on its western flank digs southeast. This configuration will foster a prolonged period of significant large-scale upper-level divergence and thus deep-layer ascent, which will maintain widespread areas of organized convection with embedded thunderstorms for several days.

Tropical moisture (PWAT values 1.75-2.00″) will continue to expand eastward across the islands Wednesday and Thursday, then peak between 2.00-2.25″+ by Friday and Saturday, during the period of strongest upper forcing. By the weekend, the concern will be with the likely additional heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils, and therefore the risk of significant flash flooding statewide. Saturday and Sunday show PWAT values peaking between 4 and 5 standard deviations above normal, also quite rare for early March.

We could be looking at an extreme to potentially record-breaking rainfall event for this time of year, which provides high confidence in the potential for considerable flash flooding.

 

Weather Wit of the day:  Weekend Forecast – “Rain followed by scattered complaints”

 

>>> Highest Temperature Wednesday, March 11, 2026 – 99 degrees at McAllen, TX
>>> Lowest Temperature Wednesday, March 11, 2026 – minus 10 degrees at Yellowstone Lake, WY

 

>>> I’m going to keep my cell phone and other devices charged up as much as possible, between now and when the worst of this upcoming storm activity is finished with us.

>>> If or when my power goes off, or I lose connectivity, I obviously won’t be able to continue the updating of this website. However, once one or the other returns, rest assured that I’ll immediately begin the normal updating procedures.

 

National Weather Service Update…as of Wednesday 

• Flood watch for all of Maui County through Saturday…western islands see impacts earlier

• Today: continued flash flood threat, occasional inland/offshore strong showers or isolated thunderstorms, breezy south winds

• Thursday: lower flood risk but still thunderstorm chance

• Friday–Saturday: height of storm event—strong damaging south-southwest winds (advisory: 30 mph gusting to 45 mph at low elevations; 45 mph gusting to 80 mph at summit), continued flash floods, thunderstorms, isolated hail or weak tornadoes

• Sunday: lingering threats…Monday returns to typical weather

• Rainfall: 1–2 inches since yesterday on west Maui…up to 3–4 inches in northeast Molokai

• Five-day accumulations: up to 12–24 inches locally (peak areas), generally 6–12 inches in leeward Maui…training bands possible

• Special marine warnings for Mahala Bay, Lanai, Molokai channels…water spout risk

• High wind watch in effect…inland winds from south-southwest may disrupt operations

• Winter storm watch only for Big Island summits…Haleakala possible wind impacts, small chance of frozen precipitation

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview…as of 348pm Wednesday:  A powerful kona storm will impact the state through this weekend, resulting in potential flash flooding, damaging winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms. Impacts will generally be felt over the western end of the state first, and then spread east with time. The peak of this event is forecast to be Friday and Saturday.

Hawaii’s Weather Details…as of 348pam Wednesday:  Tonight. A moisture axis in place over the islands supports ongoing shower activity, as the mid and upper levels slowly destabilize. These showers are anchored along a corridor of weakly confluent southwest flow and will evolve eastward through Maui County tonight. Paltry convergence is likely to limit potential for organization and meaningful heavy rain tonight.

Thursday. The next wave of showers in the sequence is beginning to materialize along the same moisture axis well south of Kauai today. A developing band of showers will intensify as it reaches Kauai and possibly Oahu early Thursday, and may prompt embedded thunderstorms. Despite the increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment, low-level convergence will be lacking for much of the day Thursday. This will likely lead to poorly organized batches of heavy rainfall and/or thunderstorms through at least the first half of the day.

Additionally, local pressure falls will force winds to steadily ramp-up Thursday with winds reaching 40mph by Thursday evening and sustained southerlies in the vicinity of Kauai around 23-29 mph. Strong southerly moisture transport may favor fairly widespread showers by afternoon, but gradually strengthening surface convergence will increasingly place the focus on the developing heavy rain band over Kauai. An increasingly organized band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is expected to be taking shape over Kauai no later than Thursday evening.

Thursday night through Saturday. This represents the period of greatest concern and the potential timing for considerable impacts to life and property. As usual, downsloping potential exists but is uncertain. Suspect power outages and downed trees will be common by late Thursday night into early Friday, particularly where soil is water logged. Of note, a strong punch of mid level dry air and subsidence impinges on Kauai and Oahu during the day Saturday, when the wind field still remains quite strong. This may represent even greater potential for downsloping winds to develop.

Therefore, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the lower elevations beginning Thursday night and continuing through Saturday night for Kauai through Maui. An HWW for the Big Island has likewise been issued with a start time of early Friday. This Watch will later be converted to either a Wind Advisory or a High Wind Warning as downsloping potential becomes more clear, though the aforementioned dry intrusion increases confidence that strong downsloping winds will occur if not during the entire watch period, then at least during Saturday into Saturday night.

This period will also be characterized by intense rain rates, thunderstorms, and the potentially serious flash flooding. The most intense rainfall will be focused along the rapidly strengthening frontal zone as it slowly progresses eastward through the state. This band will develop over Kauai by late Thursday, reach Oahu during Friday and Maui County late Friday into Friday night. The heavy rain axis finally reaches the Big Island on Saturday, focusing heavy rain along leeward areas. Also suspect showers will ramp up during this time frame over the SE slopes of the Big Island potentially resulting in several inches of rain in advance of the heavy rain band.

There is also a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Wind profiles are largely out of the southwest which will favor a primary threat of wind. However, large hail (1″ diameter or greater) is also not out of the question, with any particularly intense thunderstorms. It should be noted that the heavy rain band is forecast to move slowly but still be rather progressive in nature. Should it stall over an island, the threat for severe flooding would drastically increase.

Finally, Big Island and Haleakala Summits will see winds ramp-up Friday into Saturday. Gusts over 100 mph can be expected on the Big Island with lesser gusts of 80-90 mph developing on Haleakala Summit by early Saturday. This will coincide with the period of heaviest precipitation in these areas. Blizzard conditions are therefore anticipated on the Big Island Summits. The High Wind Watch and Winter Storm Watch for the summits remain in effect.

Sunday onward. Moist southwesterly kona wind flow potentially favors continuing showers, though of diminished intensity over Leeward Big Island. The next round of mid-level height falls approaches during the middle of next week, potentially reactivating the lingering band of moisture over the islands.

 

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – Zoom Earth – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment…as of 901am Wednesday: A powerful kona storm will result in heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas to the islands and adjacent coastal waters through the rest of this week. Bands of heavy rainfall are observed on radar imagery moving from south to north, within a southerly wind regime across the Hawaiian waters, especially across leeward waters. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds were observed in a scatterometer pass, and this fresh to locally strong southerly flow will continue. After a brief lull in southerly wind speeds tonight into Thursday, re-intensification will cause winds to approach, or possibly reach, gale-force speeds for portions of the area as early as Thursday night or Friday, lasting into the weekend.

A series of small, medium- to long-period west-northwest swells will bring small surf to north and west facing shores through the rest of the week. The first of these will peak today, resulting in a slight bump in surf along north and west-facing shores. This swell will then decline before the next west-northwest swell arrives on Friday. Additionally, a small, medium-period north swell is also expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday.

Choppy surf along east-facing shores will continue to trend downward, falling below seasonal levels as winds veer southerly. With the shift of wind direction, surf along south-facing shores will increase, becoming rough and choppy. Later this week, another round of stronger southerly winds Friday into the weekend will cause south shore surf to build further, likely reaching advisory levels. A series of small, long-period south swells will also move through.

 

What To Do In Kauai When It Rains



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Northeastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical cyclone 03W (Nuri)…is located approximately 409 NM west-southwest of Andersen AFB

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/03W_111800sair.jpghttps://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/03W_111200sair.jpg

 

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Where Fires Used to be Frequent, Old Forests Now Face High Risk of Devastating Blazes

A new analysis shows that the Pacific Northwest’s mature and old-growth forests are most at risk of severe wildfire in areas that historically burned frequently at lower severity.

The study by scientists at Oregon State University and USDA Forest Service Research & Development is important because those forests are culturally, economically and ecologically significant, supporting biodiversity while storing vast amounts of carbon, and they are under increasing threat of stand-replacing wildfire.

Researchers used state-of-the-art modeling techniques to gain knowledge that can help guide risk mitigation efforts and return forests to healthier fire regimes.

Read more at: Oregon State University