Glenn James
Hawaii Weather Today
Creator, Author, and Administrator for 30 years

 

The latest update to this website was at 1208pm Tuesday afternoon HST


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the island Tuesday afternoon: 

0.20  Hanalei, Kauai
0.47  Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.54  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.01  Lanai 1, Lanai
1.20  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.59  Kawainui Stream, Big Island


The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday afternoon:

18  Port Allen, Kauai – ENE
28  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – E
29  Molokai AP, Molokai – E 
37  Na Kula, Maui – ESE 
39  Puuloa, Big Island – NW 


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the (~10,023 feet high) Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Tropical systems remain active in the eastern Pacific…including Tropical Storm Odalys and Category 5 Major Hurricane Polo 


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/hi/14/20262650850-20262651920-GOES18-ABI-HI-14-600x600.gif

Variable low clouds are present over the island chain…thunderstorms southeast

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Localized Showers 

 

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/hfo.png

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above




~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Tuesday comments:  I’m at home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii

445am, it’s mostly clear here at my place, with the low temperature 59 degrees, relative humidity is 82%…with calm winds

 

The latest update:

>>> Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

(Former TD 15E)

The remnants of Tropical Depression 15E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, has produced an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the last few hours. The environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

 

>Flash flooding potential increases Wednesday through Friday as moisture associated with remnants of 15-E tracks just south of the Big Island.
> Southeast Big Island will likely see the highest rainfall totals 15 to 20”. Leeward areas in the 4 to 8″ range.
>East Maui, potential for 4 to 8″

 

undefined



Hawaii’s Weather Highlights…as of Tuesday afternoon: Moderate trades will gradually strengthen each day over the next several days, with widespread strong trades expected by Thursday, and very windy conditions possible on Friday. The main focus for the weather this week will be the tropical cyclone development southeast or south of the Big Island over the next few days. While the potential wind impacts remain uncertain, the threat for flash flooding will increase over the Big Island during the second half of the week.

Short Term Update: Radar and satellite showed the usual for a trade wind regime…with mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers windward and mauka, and mostly sunny skies leeward. Winds were averaging 5 to 15 mph in most areas, with the typical windiest spots blowing 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph.

The latest guidance has not really changed the overall expectations for TD 15E (future Nolo). Ensembles still show a wide variety of solutions, with some moving over part(s) of the state, but most missing a direct landfall. Showers and/or isolated thunderstorms may begin to bring heavy rain to the Big Island and windward Maui potentially beginning late Wednesday. There is higher confidence in having precipitation ramp up Wednesday night.

Once it begins, the track will determine how long it will last and how much rain we see. And at this time, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the forecast track. Because the storm is expected to begin to form today, we should see some convergence in solutions tonight and tomorrow, but with weak steering flow, there will continue to be a large uncertainty in the track as we work through the next few days. For now, the main concerns are heavy rain and increasing winds. A flood watch will likely be issued this afternoon, and wind advisories or warnings may be needed later in the week.

Weather Narrative…as of Tuesday afternoon: Satellite and radar imagery shows some scattered showers riding in with the moderate trades over windward and mauka areas. For today, while conditions are stable, we are seeing higher than normal moisture levels. This will allow for some brief downpours at a few windward and mountain areas. Otherwise, we should see a fairly typical trade wind day with breezy trades returning by later this afternoon.

This week`s forecast remains very challenging, and will be highly dependent on the formation of a tropical cyclone near the Big Island over the next several days. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center has a high chance of formation over the next 48 hours. While strong shear has been keeping the system from getting organized, the models do show a decrease of wind shear over the next 24 to 36 hours. So the expectation is for the thunderstorms southeast of the Big Island to become better organized with a tropical depression likely to form over the next day or two.

Around Thursday, global models are showing the potential tropical cyclone drifting northward towards the Big Island, as it reaches the western periphery of a subtropical ridge of high pressure. At this time, there is still high uncertainty on the strength and position of this potential tropical cyclone as it slowly drifts northward. While there is a great deal of uncertainty, there is a significant potential for a prolonged heavy rain event over windward and southeast Big Island, due to the deep tropical moisture and weak steering flow.

While there is a lot of moisture available, due to the high uncertainty on the intensity of the potential tropical cyclone, rainfall rates remain very uncertain. While tropical moisture could begin impacting windward and southeast Big Island as early as Wednesday, the heavier rain rates looks to be more Thursday into Friday, thus a Flood Watch for the Big Island is on hold for now. A Flood Watch will be issued for the Big Island eventually, as the models get a better handle on the potential tropical cyclone development.

As for the potential wind impacts, while there is high uncertainty as well, however, there is a high likelihood of at least windy trades by Friday of this week, with gusts of 50 mph to even 60 mph possible over the typical windy areas around the eastern half of the state. The potential for stronger wind gusts will be highly dependent on the tropical cyclone development.

 

Fire Weather:  Breezy trades will return by this afternoon and steadily strengthen each day over the next several days. With winds strengthening, moderate fire weather conditions will be possible this week mainly over drier leeward areas. The inversion is around 5,000 feet, but will rise over the eastern end of the state Wednesday as deeper moisture moves in.

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif


Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Looping Surface Precipitation…through the next 8-days / Vog Map

 

Marine Conditions…as of Tuesday afternoon: The gradient between high pressure to the northeast and an approaching trough that may develop into a tropical cyclone to the southeast, will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typical windy waters of Maui County and the Big Island through early Wednesday evening, with the possibility of it being extended as well as expanded. Wind speeds will strengthen during the latter half of the week, as the trough or potential tropical disturbance moves near the islands. Shower coverage will also increase, along with the potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly across the eastern waters.

Surf along south facing shores will gradually drop heading into mid-week as the current south-southwest swell fades. A slightly smaller, long-period south-southwest swell will fill in late this week into the weekend generated by a series of lows near New Zealand. West facing shores will experience a bit of the southerly wrap through most of the week.

Breezy trade winds will maintain moderate surf along east facing shores for the next several days. Surf along north facing shores will see a rise today into Wednesday as a small, medium-period, north-northwest swell fills in from an Aleutian low. Then a small, long-period west-northwest swell generated by Typhoon Dujuan as it curves northeast near Japan, will build locally Friday into the weekend, increasing surf along north and west facing shores.

 

>>> Highest Temperature Monday, September 21, 2026 – 105 degrees near La Puerta, Texas


>>> Lowest Temperature Monday, September 21, 2026 – 22 degrees at Peter Sinks, Utah

 

Hawaiian Vibes


World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 



>>> Here’s a link to the latest Pacific Disaster Center’s Weather Wall




Atlantic Ocean: 

Post-Tropical cyclone 06L (Fay) – Last Advisory

FAY DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph. A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

cone graphic

 

>>> Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of western Africa tomorrow. Although upper-level winds are not very conducive, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves generally northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there by the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent 

 

Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones


Gulf of America: There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Northeast Pacific:

Tropical cyclone 16E (Odalys) is located about 1415 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

ODALYS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

According to the NHC advisory number 11

Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph and this motion is expected to continue through the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the northeast late this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

cone graphic

 

Tropical cyclone 17E (Polo) is located about 355 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico

POLO IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE …EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

According to the NHC advisory number 9

Polo is nearly stationary, but a slow northwestward motion is expected tonight followed by a generally west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 892 mb (26.34 inches).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP17/EP172026_5day_cone.png

 

>>> South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:

An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

 

Central North Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

(Former TD 15E)

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, have changed little in organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Heavy rains associated with this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian Islands starting on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent 

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 24W (Dujuan)…is located approximately 424 NM east of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2426.gif

 

Southwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Here’s the link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:  Drought in the Northeastern United States Has Decreased

Study finds increased precipitation outpaces water loss from warmer temperatures.

As climate change continues to impact the U.S., many regions throughout the country, especially the West, are experiencing more drought.

But over the last century, the Northeast has experienced something different—less frequent and less intense droughts due to increased precipitation, according to a new Dartmouth study.

The findings are published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology.

Read More: Dartmouth College