The latest update to this website was at 8pm, Tuesday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

0.55  Waiahi RG, Kauai
0.85  Hakipuu Mauka, Oahu
0.28  Honolimaloo, Molokai
0.08  Lanai City, Lanai
0.54  Piiholo, Maui
0.58  Kapapala Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:

18  Lihue, Kauai
14  Palehua 2, Oahu
12  Kalae Hwy, Molokai
12  Lanai 1, Lanai
17 Ulupalakua, Maui
23  Hilo AP, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Thunderstorms south, cold front far northwest…Tropical Cyclone’s Octave and Priscilla are located far east 

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

High and middle level clouds to the south

 

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Showers locally…some quite heavy 

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Tuesday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii.

It’s partly cloudy here in Maui County early this morning. The low temperature at my place was 56.5 degrees…with a relative humidity of 74%.

1241pm, I just got back from playing Pickleball in Haiku, and it just started to rain again here at my place…there are some serious clouds in these leeward slopes of the Haleakala Crater! The temperature is a nice 71 degrees, with the relative humidity 75%.

430pm, cloudy with off and on rain, mostly on, with a temperature of 64.5 degrees and RH 76% here at my Kula weather tower.

510pm, pea soup fog with calm winds and just drips from the eaves as the showers have stopped for the moment.

752pm, it’s still foggy here in upper Kula, although the showers have ended, while the temperature is 63.3 degrees and the RH is 82%.

 

Weather Wit of the day: Meteorologist – An expert who has inside information on outside matters

 

>>> Highest Temperature Tuesday, October 7, 2025 – 100 south of Yuma, Arizona
>>> Lowest Temperature Tuesday, October 7, 2025 – 17 near Silvies, Oregon

 

Monthly Precipitation Summary
State of Hawaii
Month: September 2025

Headline: September rainfall improved upon August’s dismal showing, especially for Kauai, though many parts of the state remain significantly below average for the year so far.

September opened with lingering moisture and a mid-level low northwest of Kauai, which produced enhanced showers on the 1st. The Big Island’s Kona district was hit hardest, with 0.75 to 1.25 inches common and up to 3+ inches at Waiaha Stream near Kailua-Kona, prompting a Flood Advisory for those areas. Smaller totals were observed in the Waianae Mountains of Oahu (up to 0.5 inches) and across Kauai (0.25 to 1+ inches).

Light to moderate trades and drier, more stable conditions returned through the 3rd with modest windward and mountain showers and mostly dry leeward areas, except for afternoon showers along the Big Island’s leeward slopes. By the 6th, a trough north of the islands further weakened the trades, allowing land and sea breezes to take over and ushering in warm, muggy weather.

The second week featured deep tropical moisture from former Tropical Cyclone Kiko, which spread across the state between the 8th and 11th. Most locations received 0.25 to 1 inch of rainfall, while windward Maui and the Big Island were the wettest, picking up 1 to 2 inches on the 11th. The following week saw a return to drier weather with moderate to locally breezy trades. Showers were light and mainly confined to windward slopes, aside from a minor uptick in shower coverage/amounts when weak troughs crossed the islands on the 12th.

Moisture from a weakening front combined with instability from an upper low to produce enhanced showers between the 18th and 22nd with the most notable rainfall over the western half of the state. However, the Kona coast of the Big Island also received 0.75 to 2+ inches on the 21st, resulting in another Flood Advisory that evening.

Trade winds then weakened as a low northeast of the islands shifted winds out of the east-southeast between the 23rd and 26th. Southeast Kau picked up some much needed rainfall on the 24th, enough to trigger a Flood Advisory. By the 25th and 26th, land and sea breezes had become established, leading to light showers in interior and leeward areas. Kauai, however, was the standout, recording widespread 0.75 to 2 inches and nearly 3 inches in some interior spots, which prompted a Flood Advisory on the 26th. The month closed with a rebuilding trade wind pattern, which stabilized the atmosphere, keeping showers light and focused on the state’s windward areas and the Kona side of the Big Island.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview: Weak southeast to east-southeast winds will continue through Friday, with trade winds building back in by Saturday. That means several days of sea breezes during the afternoons and land breezes overnight, and more leeward showers than usual. In addition, a broad band of moisture left over from a decaying cold front will increase showers in the western part of the state through Thursday and perhaps into Friday.

Hawaii’s Weather Details: The previously forecast sea breeze pattern has developed and played a strong role in the development of isolated to scattered showers. The strongest showers were over Lanai and windward Oahu at the time of this writing. Hawaii County had the fewest showers. Coverage and intensity should diminish statewide after sunset.

With noticeable land breezes developing tonight, expect temperatures to be a degree or two cooler than normal in most areas. With a continuation of light southeast winds near the surface, we should see a near repeat of today’s showers on Wednesday. The County with the best chance for showers tomorrow is Kauai, owing to the continued presence of a band of moisture left over from a old frontal boundary. Winds will increase slightly Thursday, limiting the sea breeze for some areas. This, along with the departure of the moisture from the old front, should result in fewer showers statewide.

Friday into Friday night, and certainly by Saturday, trade winds will become reestablished over the area. This will return us to a more typical windward/leeward pattern for showers and clouds. Models are showing increasing confidence in low level moisture increasing Sunday into next Monday…with a slight drying likely for next Tuesday.

Fire weather:  Relatively weak winds and a higher frequency of showers will help keep conditions below critical fire weather thresholds the next several days. Inversion heights across the state will range from as low as 6,000 to as high as 9,000 feet through mid-week.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment:  A trough draped over the coastal waters will slowly drift west over the next several days, bringing light to gentle south or southeast flow across all waters. This flow should also give way to localized land and sea breezes. Moderate easterly trades are forecast to fill back in by this weekend as high pressure builds far northeast of the state.

The current small, medium period, north-northwest (330-340 deg) swell has been coming in slightly above guidance, as noted on the Waimea Bay buoy observations. However, this swell has already peaked and should continue to slowly decline through late this week. Forerunners from the next, more significant moderate, long period, northwest swell are forecast to arrive by late this weekend. During the peak of the event, early next week, surf along north facing shores may approach High Surf Advisory criteria.

Background south-southwest swell energy will bring tiny to small surf along south facing shores through late Wednesday. A small, long period, south-southwest (190-200 deg) swell will fill in Thursday morning and bring a slight bump up to surf along south facing shores through late Friday. Expect below average surf along east facing shores this week as weak flow prevails.

Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through this weekend. Coastal flooding will coincide with the daily peak tide each morning. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all coastal areas through Friday, but may need to be extended.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone Jerry…is located about 950 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands

JERRY RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC

According to the NHC advisory number 3A

Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by late tonight or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

cone graphic

 

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Southwestern Gulf:

>>> A trough of low pressure is emerging over the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula, and continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland again over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent 
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

 

Northeastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Octave)…is located about 750 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA 

OCTAVE IS HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD

According to the NHC advisory number 32

Octave is moving toward the east near 7 mph. This general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn east-northeast and faster forward motion tomorrow into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or two, and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

cone graphic

                

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Priscilla)…is located about 185 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

HIGH SURF EXPECTED AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO

According to the NHC advisory number 14A 

Priscilla is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. A weather station on Socorro island, located about 155 miles south-southeast of Priscilla’s eye, recently reported a wind gust of 36 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

cone graphic

 

South of Southern Mexico:

Invest 90E

>>> Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located around 100 miles offshore of the Guatemala–Mexico border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to localized flooding.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

 

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Halong)…is located approximately 348 NM south-southwest of Camp Fuji

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2825.gif

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Clam Shells Sound Warning of Atlantic ‘Tipping Point’

A study of clam shells suggests Atlantic Ocean currents may be approaching a “tipping point”.

Scientists studied records of quahog clams (which can live for over 500 years) and dog cockles – because shell layers provide an annual record of ocean conditions.

They studied these natural archives to understand long-term patterns in Atlantic Ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG).

Recent studies have debated possible AMOC and SPG tipping points – transitions that would transform climate patterns. For example, AMOC collapse would have far-reaching global effects, from harsher winters in north-west Europe to shifts in global rainfall patterns, while a weakening of the SPG would be less catastrophic but still bring substantial impacts, including more frequent extreme weather in the North Atlantic region.

Read More: University of Exeter