The latest update to this website was at 919pm Monday (HST)

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:

8.36  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.39  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.01  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.18  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.23  Honolii Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Monday evening:

21  Barking Sands, Kauai – SE
15  Kii, Oahu – SE 
21  Makapulapai, Molokai – ESE
07  Lanai 1,  Lanai – NE
25  Na Kula, Maui – ENE 
18  South Point, Big Island – ENE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

A deepening trough of low pressure northwest of the state…along with a cold front west

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

Increasing clouds moving into the state from the northwest

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

  Showers locally, especially near Kauai…some are heavy 

 

Please open this link to see details on the current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Monday comments:  I’m here at home in upper Kula, Maui

It’s mostly clear early this morning here at my location, with a chilly low temperature of 49 degrees, and the relative humidity is 80%.

106pm, partly cloudy with a mix of low and higher level cirrus clouds, along with the typical afternoon haze of late.

6pm, it’s gotten very cloudy early this evening here on Maui, and there’s the usual haze. I played pickleball in Makawao this morning, which was very fun! The rain is getting very close to Kauai early this evening, which is locally heavy in spots.

 

Hydrologic Outlook as of 310pm Monday – National Weather Service Honolulu HI:

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY, OAHU, AND MAUI COUNTY

Latest forecast models continue to indicate that considerable flash flooding is possible this week beginning as early as Tuesday, as a powerful kona storm develops northwest of the state, and draws deep tropical moisture across the islands. Higher confidence in the heavy rainfall and flooding threat has led to the issuance of a Flood Watch for Kauai County, Oahu, and Maui County.

This will be the final Hydrologic Outlook issued for this event. Further hydrologic threat information will be covered by flash flood watches, flash flood warnings and flood advisories as conditions warrant.

 

NWS Weather Prediction Center as of Monday morning: 

Prolonged and Powerful Kona Storm To Bring Numerous Impacts Across Hawaii This Week into Next Weekend

A high-impact and potentially life-threatening weather pattern will unfold across Hawaii this week, as a powerful and slow-moving Kona Low develops northwest of the state. This system is forecast to bring a prolonged period of torrential rainfall, areas of flash flooding, damaging “Kona” winds, and potentially severe thunderstorms with large hail. The combination of a deep upper-level trough and a plume of deep tropical moisture will result in statewide impacts beginning Tuesday across the western islands, spreading eastward and persisting through the upcoming weekend.

In terms of the guidance, the global models and their respective ensembles remain in remarkably good agreement regarding the large-scale evolution of this event.  Kauai will experience the initial arrival of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, with the activity spreading eastward to Oahu and Maui by Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday. Flash flooding is a primary concern as rainfall rates may exceed 2-3″ per hour within the strongest bands.

During Days 4-7 (Friday through Monday), the concern will be with the likely additional heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils. While the guidance suggests a potential brief lull on Thursday, a second, more vigorous trough is expected by Friday. Friday into Saturday also appears to be the window with the greatest severe weather risk, with potentially damaging southerly winds (50+ mph gusts) on northern and eastern slopes. Lastly, the latest model output continues to indicate an extreme to climatologically rare event for the month of March in Hawaii.  These values suggest that the high-end potential of this Kona storm is significantly outside the realm of “normal” wet season weather.

 

Weather Wit of the day:  Weather Forecasting – The courage of our confusions

 

>>> Highest Temperature Monday, March 9, 2026 – 95 degrees near Linn, TX
>>> Lowest Temperature Monday, March 9, 2026 – 8 degrees near Stehekin, WA

 

>>> I don’t know about you, but I’m going to start keeping my cell phone charged up as much as possible, between now and when the worst of this upcoming storm activity is through.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview…as of 908pm Monday:  A powerful kona storm is expected to affect the state this week and into the weekend, bringing several potential hazards to the islands. The combination of deep tropical moisture, strong winds, and increasing instability could produce periods of heavy rainfall with significant flash flooding, damaging winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday through at least Saturday.

Flooding concerns may begin as early as Tuesday and Tuesday night over Kauai and Oahu, as deep moisture spreads into the western end of the state, then expands eastward across the island chain later in the week. The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to increase late in the week into the weekend.

Short Term Update…as of 903pm Monday:  Current observations show winds have veered to a southeast direction and radar shows some showers with embedded thunderstorms approaching the coastal waters west of Niihau. These thunderstorms are expected to continue their eastward track through the night. There are some light to moderate showers developing over the Koolau mountains.

Hawaii’s Weather Details…as of 908pm Monday: The weather regime heading into the night is expected to be rather typical of a veered east-southeast flow for the eastern half of the state, with showers generally favoring the southeast and east facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui. For the western end of the state, showers with embedded thunderstorms will begin to move in from the west. Forecast confidence continues to increase regarding the wet and unsettled pattern that is expected to develop Tuesday through the rest of the week and weekend.

Forecast confidence continues to increase regarding the wet and unsettled pattern that is expected to develop tomorrow through the rest of the week and weekend. Impacts, including the potential for significant flash flooding, damaging winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms, will initially be felt across the western end of the state and will gradually expand eastward over the next several days. While this is a long duration event, it looks like the overall evolution can be broken into two primary stages.

The initial stage is expected to start Tuesday or Tuesday night and potentially last through Thursday. As a broad low deepens to the northwest of the state, winds will veer southerly for the western half of the state, and southeasterly for the eastern half heading into Tuesday. A broad swath of deep atmospheric moisture with precipitable water values (PWats) ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches, which can be seen as an area of showers and thunderstorms west-northwest of Kauai, will be drawn up in this southerly flow and move over the western end of the state Tuesday into Wednesday.

At the same time, a surface trough will round the base of a potent upper level trough to the northwest, providing instability, and upper level jet dynamics will support large scale ascent across the area. Together, these ingredients will support periods of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds. Impacts during this stage are expected to be focused primarily across the western half of the state.

The second stage looks to start on Friday and persist into the weekend. The upper level trough to the northwest will continue to sharpen as a jet streak on its western flank strengthens, and another trough will round the base of this trough. The axis of deep atmospheric moisture will shift eastward and spread out across the island chain, with model guidance showing PWats exceeding 2 inches.

By late week and into the weekend, soils may already be saturated, increasing the likelihood that additional rainfall will produce rapid runoff and dangerous flooding conditions, increasing flooding concerns statewide, particularly where heavier rainfall persists over the same areas for multiple days. While thunderstorms embedded within showers are possible mid-week as mentioned above, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will increase Friday into the weekend, as the environment becomes increasingly unstable, moisture increases and the upper level jet dynamics become even more favorable for large scale ascent.

In addition to the rainfall threat, south to southwest kona winds may strengthen later in the week into the weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens between the developing low to the northwest and high pressure to the east. If this materializes, strong kona winds and localized downslope winds on north through east facing sides of the islands may be capable of downing trees and power lines.

For the Big Island summits, increasing moisture and colder air associated with the upper trough may support periods of heavy snowfall with significant accumulations later in the week into the weekend, potentially requiring the issuance of a winter storm watch/warning.

While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall and strongest storms, confidence continues to increase that the islands will experience a prolonged period of unsettled and potentially impactful weather this week. Residents and interests across the state should continue monitoring forecasts, as details regarding the timing and location of impacts become clearer.

 

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – Zoom Earth – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment…as of 356pm Monday:  A powerful kona storm is expected to impact the state as heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas are expected to accompany this storm system starting Tuesday into the weekend. Currently, strong high pressure far northeast of the state will drift east, as fresh to locally strong east to east-southeast winds slowly decline through the day. Winds will begin to veer southerly and increase to fresh to locally strong speeds Tuesday through late this week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. An SCA will likely be issued for western waters later this week as this kona low develops.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually trend downward, then fall below normal levels Tuesday through late this week. A series of small long period west-northwest swells will keep some small surf in place along north and west facing shores during the forecast period. A small medium period north swell is possible late this week.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with the exception of areas exposed to wind swell wrap. Rough and choppy conditions will develop Tuesday and continue through late week, as southerly winds increase in advance of a cold front. A series of small long-period south swells will impact shorelines through late this week.

 

KAUAI WEATHER FORECAST AND SURF REPORT



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Northeastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Study Reveals Climatic Fingerprints of Wildfires and Volcanic Eruptions

Volcanoes and wildfires can inject millions of tons of gases and aerosol particles into the air, affecting temperatures on a global scale. But picking out the specific impact of individual events against a background of many contributing factors is like listening for one person’s voice from across a crowded concourse.

MIT scientists now have a way to quiet the noise and identify the specific signal of wildfires and volcanic eruptions, including their effects on Earth’s global atmospheric temperatures.

In a study appearing this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers report that they detected statistically significant changes in global atmospheric temperatures in response to three major natural events: the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the Australian wildfires in 2019-2020, and the eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific in 2022.

Read More: Massachusetts Institute of Technology