The latest update to this website was at 422am Saturday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday morning:

0.28  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.29  Kamananui Stream, Oahu
0.01  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.57  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.27  Spencer, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday morning:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
36  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
33  Makapulapai, Molokai
32  Lanai 1, Lanai
53  Kealaloloa Rg, Maui
46  Puuloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

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Thunderstorms in the deeper tropics…cold front far northwest 

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

 Mostly clear to partly cloudy…along with high and middle level clouds near the Big Island

 

 

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https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

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Showers locally 

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Saturday comments:  I’m here at my friend’s house in Corte Madera, Marin County, California

It’s cloudy with light showers here in Marin County early this morning. The low temperature was 48 degrees, although the temperature has risen to 57.3 before dawn.

>>> Be careful, as this windy and dry weather is dangerous for fire outbreaks…especially in the afternoon hours.

Weather Wit of the day: Fall Blizzard – When you go out and rake your snow

Interesting Blog: Mauka Showers – Flash Floods in Hawaii – NWS Short Lead Time Products

>>> Highest Temperature Friday, October 24, 2025 – 98 at Rio Grande Village, Texas
>>> Lowest Temperature Saturday, October 25, 2025 – 12 near Davis, WV

 

2025 Dry Season Rainfall Summary for Hawaii (May through September 2025)

> The dry season forecast favored above normal precipitation across Kauai and Oahu, below normal precipitation for the Big Island, and equal chances of above, below, and near normal precipitation across Maui County.
> Rainfall totals for the season were mostly below average for Maui County and the Big Island (except the Kona district, which has a typical summer rainfall maximum), near to below average for Oahu, and near to slightly above average for Kauai.
> Drought conditions (D1 or greater) changed little in terms of areal coverage through the dry season, with around 70% of the state affected. Drought severity increased most significantly over the Hamakua and Kau districts of the Big Island, as well as the windward and leeward coasts of Oahu.
> Overall, the 2025 season ranked as the 3rd driest in the last 30 years (average rankings from 8 representative sites around the state)
> 2010 was the driest in the last 30 years, with 2007 coming in 2nd.

 

Wet Season (October 2025 through April 2026) Outlook

> From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): La Niña Advisory in effect. La Niña conditions emerged in September 2025 and are expected to continue through the January – February 2026 period, with a transition to ENSO neutral likely in the January – March 2026 period (55% chance). Probabilities favor a weak La Niña event (Niño-3.4 index value at or between -0.5°C and -0.9°C).
> Rainfall forecast: Consistent with a cold-season La Niña event, the climate model consensus supports enhanced probabilities for above normal rainfall through early spring 2026, with the greatest probabilities over the northwestern half of the state.
> Rainfall amount and distribution can be influenced by the strength of La Niña
> Weaker La Niña events have generally favored above normal rainfall during winter in Hawaii in recent decades (since 1980s), with the potential for more weather systems capable of producing widespread significant rainfall.
> However, weak La Niña events do not necessarily result in Hawaii’s wettest wet seasons on record.
> Moderate to strong events have favored below normal rainfall in general, with greater trade wind frequency, focusing rain on windward slopes.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview: An upper-level low will drift westward across the Big Island this morning, bringing enhanced shower activity and isolated thunderstorms across windward Big Island and the eastern coastal waters. This will increase humidity and help suppress fire weather concerns for much of the state.

Trades will remain breezy through the morning, gradually decreasing this afternoon. Another upper-level low moves into the vicinity of the islands by next Wednesday, once again enhancing shower activity across the windward and mountain portions of the state.

Hawaii’s Weather Details: Latest model guidance continues to support an upper-level low propagating west over the Big Island early this morning, and meandering northwestward away from the islands later this weekend. This low will enhance shower activity and possible produce isolated thunderstorms this morning, especially along the windward and mountain areas of the Big Island, extending as far north as Maui.

The heaviest shower activity developed last night, however, heavy showers remain possible along the Hamakua coastline of the Big Island throughout much of the day. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in affect for the Big Island summits to account for potential snow and ice accumulations through Sunday night.

The extent of the Red Flag Warning was trimmed to the leeward areas of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu, and is in effect through today to account for 45 percent or lower relative humidity within those areas. Latest model guidance continues to suggest enhanced moisture will begin to move into the eastern end of the state today, which will increase relative humidity above critical fire weather thresholds.

Observations from Mauna Kea showed trade winds across the Hawaiian Islands have decreased below advisory levels. Therefore, the Wind Advisory for Maui County, Big Island, and the Big Island summits has been cancelled.

Trade wind speeds continue to weaken to a more light to moderate pattern from Sunday night through much of next week, as the ridge north of the islands weakens in response to a passing cold front well north of the islands. More stable conditions move back into the islands with brief passing showers favoring predominately windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours through Tuesday.

Latest model guidance showcases another wet and unstable trade wind pattern by mid-week. This will enhance overnight to early morning shower coverage statewide, just in time to add a little more spooky ambiance right before Halloween weekend.

Fire weather:  Enhanced shower activity associated with a passing upper-level low, meandering across the Big Island, has resulted in an increase of humidity, suppressing the Red Flag Warning for much of the state. The Red Flag Warning continues for Niihau, and leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu, and was canceled for all islands in Maui County and Big Island due to increased humidity.

Trade winds across the state remain breezy, however, will gradually trend lower tonight to a more light to moderate speeds. Increased humidity values and decreasing winds will help maintain below critical fire weather thresholds for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Temperature inversion heights near Maui and the Big Island will range from 6,500 to 7,500 feet elevation for the time being.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment: Large surface high pressure north of the state maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the islands is resulting in fresh to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all coastal waters to account for these winds and for elevated seas. As the high drifts eastward this weekend, fresh trades will drop off to more water-wide moderate magnitudes.

SCA-level winds will hold through Sunday in Maui County`s channels and bays as well as south of Big Island. Winds will significantly lower to gentle to moderate speeds from late Sunday through Monday, as a cold front impinges on the high as it moves into the eastern Pacific. Moderate winds through the middle of the week may strengthen back to more fresh speeds over western waters as a cold front approaches the northwestern offshore waters.

A reinforcing north-northwest (330 degree) swell, similar in size to the swell that peaked Thursday morning, will be passing around the islands. This swell will provide a slight boost to north and west-facing shore surf, but heights will remain under advisory criteria during its morning peak. This swell will fall from this evening through early Monday. A quick hitting moderate size, short period north (360-010 degree) swell Wednesday, originating from post-frontal strong breezes over the far north offshore waters, will hold head high north-facing shore surf.

Fresh to strong trades has kept short period easterly wind wave chop alive along most east-facing exposures. Moderate to fresh easterly fetch over and just upstream of the islands, in tandem with some northwest swell wrap, will hold elevated sub-advisory eastern shore surf. Despite some northerly swell wrap on Wednesday, weakening trades will allow rough surf to subside to more seasonable heights next week.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Caribbean Sea: 

Tropical Cyclone Melissa…is located about 235 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti

MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

cone graphic

According to the NHC advisory number 16A

Melissa is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to begin over the next 24 hours. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane shortly and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure measured by Air Force and NOAA aircraft dropsonde data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

 

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Northeastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 18E (Sonia)…is located about 835 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SONIA

According to the NHC advisory number 3

Sonia is moving toward the west near 9 mph. The storm is expected to continue moving westward today, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the weekend, followed by gradual weakening beginning by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 04S (Chenge) is located approximately 706 NM north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0426.gif

Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Researchers Tackle Growing Threat of ‘Forever Chemicals’

A new project led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology will transform our understanding of a group of manufactured chemicals that can last hundreds of years in the environment, posing long-term risks to ecosystems and potentially human health. This will result in improved assessments of what happens to these so-called ‘forever chemicals’ in habitats, including their impacts on wildlife.

PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) are a group of thousands of chemically diverse, man made compounds that are used in common products ranging from non-stick cookware and firefighting foam to cosmetics and food packaging. Their resistance to environmental breakdown means they can accumulate in air, water, soils and living organisms.

This new UKRI-funded project will look at a wider range of PFAS compounds than has been previously investigated in the UK, to tackle critical knowledge gaps. UKCEH will be partnering with Lancaster University, the University of Birmingham and the British Geological Survey on the project, in collaboration with the Environment Agency.

Read More at: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Firefighting foam is one of the many common products that contain PFAS.