Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

79 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 72  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 65  Kahului AP, Maui
81 – 68  Kailua Kona AP
78 – 65  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

1.46  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.98  Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
 0.51  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.12  Kahoolawe
2.15  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.87  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

23  Port Allen, Kauai
33  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
28  Molokai
35  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
35  Maalaea Bay, Maui
29  Waikoloa, Big Island

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Winter storms remain well north of Hawaii

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A cold frontal cloud band will stall and weaken north and northwest of Hawaii

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Clear to partly cloudy…along with some cloudy areas

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Showers locally – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channels statewide

Gale Warning…Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Big Island leeward and southeast waters

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui, north and east shores of  the Big Island

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui

Wind Advisory…Maui County and the Big Island / 25-35 with gusts over 50 mph


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Merry Christmas!

 

Trade winds remain active over the state…which will continue through this Christmas Holiday weekend and beyond. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system located to our northeast, with a second cell moving into place north of Hawaii. At the same time, we have a cold front northwest, which is in the process of weakening and losing its forward motion. As a result, the trade winds will be the primary weather influence well into the future, which are expected to become blustery Sunday into Tuesday. This especially windy episode will finally ease around the middle of the new week, although the trade winds are expected to continue unabated through the remainder of 2016.

Our Hawaii weather will remain rather uneventful, except for the blustery winds on tap Christmas Day…which will hold firm through the middle of the new week. The outlook through this Christmas Holiday weekend shows a trade wind weather pattern continuing, along with a fairly normal amount of windward showers…continuing into the new week. This prolonged trade wind weather pattern will likely last through the end of the year, with a cold front possibly knocking the winds down a notch or two, with increased windward showers towards the New Years holiday weekend.

Marine environment details: A strong high pressure system passing north of the state will drive strong to gale force trade winds over all coastal waters through the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all coastal waters.

Beginning Sunday morning, a Gale Warning is in effect for the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island due to accelerating winds around Maui and the Big Island. The remaining coastal waters will remain under the SCA. Both highlights will continue through Tuesday. Models show a slight decrease in wind speeds Tuesday night.

The winds, combined with an easterly fetch pointed towards the islands, will boost surf to advisory levels along exposed east facing shores beginning early Sunday morning. Also, a large northwest swell will arrive early Sunday morning, then peak late in the day Sunday and Sunday night. Surf is expected to remain just under warning level heights along north and west facing shores.

A High Surf Advisory has been posted for many north, west and east facing shores from Sunday through Monday night.

In the long term, a moderate northwest swell will arrive Monday night and continue into Wednesday morning. Another large north swell may impact the state around Thursday night.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for coastal waters around Maui County and the Big Island and now includes most marine zones around Oahu as well. Trade winds are expected to ramp up further Sunday into Tuesday. The winds, combined with an easterly swell, will boost surf to advisory level along east facing shores Sunday and continue through at least Tuesday.

A northwest swell will continue to decline. However, another large northwest swell will arrive tonight, then peak Sunday night. Surf will potentially near warning levels along north and west facing shores.

 

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World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) remains active over the Philippine Sea headed towards the Philippines and Manila. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting Researchers Found Local Experiences and Temperatures Drive Belief or Non-Belief in Climate Change – A new study finds local weather may play an important role in Americans’ belief in climate change. The study, published on Monday, found that Americans’ belief that the earth is warming is related to the frequency of weather-related events they experience, suggesting that local changes in their climate influence their acceptance of this worldwide phenomenon.

“One of the greatest challenges to communicating scientific findings about climate change is the cognitive disconnect between local and global events,” said Michael Mann, associate professor of geography at George Washington University and co-author of the paper. “It is easy to assume that what you experience at home must be happening elsewhere.”

The researchers found that Americans who experience more record highs than lows in temperature are more likely to believe the earth is warming. Conversely, Americans who live in areas that have experienced record low temperatures, such as southern portions of Ohio and the Mississippi River basins, are more skeptical that the earth is warming.

The study notes that part of this dichotomy may be because of the early terminology used to describe climate change that suggested the earth was simply warming – not changing in innumerable but measurable ways. This might have led residents living in areas that experienced an unusually cold winter to doubt that climate change is occurring.

“Who do Americans trust about climate change; scientists or themselves?” said Robert Kaufmann, professor in the department of geography and the Center for Energy & Environmental Studies at Boston University and lead author of the paper. “For many Americans, the answer seems to be themselves.”

The researchers also found that a recent period of lower-than-average temperatures offset the effect of a long warming period, further supporting their findings that people’s belief in climate change is local and experiential.

The scientists note the importance of differentiating between weather, the temperatures of a relatively short period of time such as a season, and climate, the average temperatures over a period of 25 or 30 years. Emphasizing the difference between weather and climate may help scientists more effectively communicate about climate change.

The paper, “The Spatial Heterogeneity of Climate Change: An Experiential Basis for Skepticism,” was published in Proceedings National Academy of Sciences.