Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

81 – 69  Lihue, Kauai
84 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 75  Molokai AP
84 – 65  Kahului AP, Maui
82 – 71  Kailua Kona
82 – 67  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

0.01  Kapahi, Kauai
0.04  Moanalua RG, Oahu
 0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Hana AP, Maui
0.11  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:

25  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
35  Molokai
32  Lanai
37  Kahoolawe
37  Maalaea Bay, Maui
33  Kealakomo, Big Island

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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High pressure to our northeast will dominate our local weather  

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No lack of clouds in our central Pacific

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Clear to partly cloudy in general…some minor windward showers into Wednesday 

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Showers locally…not many however – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…most coastal and channel waters

High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Kauai and Molokai, and north shores of Oahu and Maui


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Tonight is the Winter Solstice here in Hawaii, actually very early Wednesday morning…at 12:44am.

The December solstice happens at the same instant for all of us, everywhere on Earth. This year the solstice occurs on Wednesday December 21st at 10:44 GMT (Universal time).

On the off chance you live near the Arctic Circle, you’ll barely get any daylight during the solstice (if you live north of the Arctic Circle, you’ll get none). The time lapse below shows the eerie scene in Fairbanks, Alaska, which only gets three hours of sunlight on the solstice — the sun basically skims the horizon for a a brief while and then vanishes: Here’s a video showing this happening in Fairbanks, Alaska

The winter solstice happens every year when the Sun reaches its most southerly declination of -23.5 degrees. In other words, when the North Pole is tilted farthest – 23.5 degrees – away from the Sun, delivering the fewest hours of sunlight of the year.

The Sun is directly overhead of the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere during the December solstice and is closer to the horizon than at any other time in the year, meaning shorter days and longer nights.

The shortest day of the year lasts for 7 hours 49 minutes and 41 seconds in Britain. This day is 8 hours, 49 minutes shorter than on June Solstice.

The day after the winter solstice marks the beginning of lengthening days, leading up to the summer solstice in June.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Dawn comes early, and dusk comes late. The sun is high and the shortest noontime shadow of the year happens there. In the Southern Hemisphere, people will experience their longest day and shortest night.

Does the winter solstice always occur on December 21st?

While it more often than not falls on December 21st, the exact time of the solstice varies each year.

In the Northern hemisphere the winter solstice is the shortest day of the year, because it is tilted away from the sun, and receives the least amount of sunlight on that day.

However, the earliest sunset does not occur on the solstice, because of the slight discrepancy between ‘solar time’ and the clocks we use.

The shortest day of the year often falls on December 21st, but the modern calendar of 365 days a year – with an extra day every four years – does not correspond exactly to the solar year of 365.2422 days.

The solstice can happen on December 20, 21, 22 or 23, though December 20 or 23 solstices are rare.

The last December 23 solstice was in 1903 and will not happen again until 2303.

What does ‘solstice’ mean?

The term ‘solstice’ derives from the Latin word ‘solstitium’, meaning ‘Sun standing still’.

On this day the Sun seems to stand still at the Tropic of Capricorn and then reverses its direction as it reaches its southernmost position as seen from the Earth.

Some prefer the more teutonic term ‘sunturn’ to describe the event.

The December solstice marks the ‘turning of the Sun’ as the days slowly get longer. Celebrations of the lighter days to come have been common throughout history with feasts, festivals and holidays around the December solstice celebrated by cultures across the globe

 

Trade winds have moved over the state…and will continue into the Christmas Holiday weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1033 millibar high pressure system located to our northeast, with a near 1026 millibar cell to the north. At the same time, we have a trough of low pressure well offshore to the west of the state, moving away. As this trough is far away, the trade winds have filled into our area from the east. They will be the primary weather influence well into the future, and are expected to become locally strong and gusty at times…through this week into next week.

We’re now into a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern. As we enter tonight and the middle of the week, we’ll likely find a minor increase in windward showers, with a few meandering over into the leeward sides locally. The outlook for the Christmas Holiday weekend shows that this trade wind weather pattern will remain well established over the Aloha State, along with the usual off and on periods of windward showers…continuing into next week. In sum, nothing too unusual on the weather horizon through the weekend into at least early next week.

Marine environment details: High pressure northeast of the state will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for most coasts and channels. A front passing far north of the state Friday will provide a slight decrease in trade winds, before new high builds north of the state and ramps trade winds up again…likely introducing SCA winds again to most coastal waters.

A north-northwest swell continues to fill in at the far northwest buoys. The observations have been running higher than the predicted by a few feet. The swell is forecast to peak and then hold through late Wednesday night, with a possible bump up Wednesday night. The larger than expected swell at the northwest buoys has prompted the issuance of a High Surf Advisory through Wednesday night for the north and west facing shores.

The combination of the breezy trade winds and the incoming north-northwest swell will help boost seas to SCA level for exposed waters.

Another larger north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive late Saturday and peak Sunday night. This swell is expected to bring advisory level surf to possible low end warning level surf to the exposed north and west facing shores.

 

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Despite Wednesday being the first day of winter…our weather will remain nice

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 02S remains active in the South Indian Ocean, headed towards the NW coast of Australia. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting Scientists: Strong evidence that human-caused climate change intensified 2015 heat waves – Human-caused climate change very likely increased the severity of heat waves that plagued India, Pakistan, Europe, East Africa, East Asia, and Australia in 2015 and helped make it the warmest year on record, according to new research published today in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The fifth edition of Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective, presents 25 peer-reviewed research papers that examine episodes of extreme weather of 2015 over five continents and two oceans. It features the research of 116 scientists from 18 countries analyzing both historical observations and changing trends along with model results to determine whether and how climate change may have influenced the event.

The strongest evidence for a human influence was found for temperature-related events — the increased intensity of numerous heat waves, diminished snowpack in the Cascades, record-low Arctic sea ice extent in March and the extraordinary extent and duration of Alaska wildfires.

“After five years of the BAMS Explaining Extreme Events report, we’re seeing mounting evidence that climate change is making heat waves more extreme in many regions around the world,” said lead editor Stephanie C. Herring, a scientist with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.  “As we get better at distinguishing the influence of climate change from natural variability, the local significance and impacts of this global phenomenon are becoming clearer.”

Evidence of climate change in 2015 flooding, fires – and sunshine

Numerous other events of 2015 were made more extreme by climate change, the report found.  The probability of “sunny day” tidal flooding events in the Miami area, like the one that inundated coastal areas that September, has risen 500 percent since 1994, according to one study.  Human-induced climate change likely contributed to the record high intensity of west North Pacific typhoons and the record amount of winter sunshine in the United Kingdom.

But researchers found no evidence of an overall climate change signal in the delayed onset of the Nigerian spring rainy season or in the extreme daily rainfall totals that inundated Chennai, India in December.  There was likewise no evidence that the extreme cold winter conditions over the northeast United States in 2015 were made more likely by human-induced climate change.

Lessons learned over the past five years

More than 100 papers examining extreme events have been accepted for publication in this special report since its inaugural issue in 2012.  These studies take a place-based and event-specific approach to identifying the role of climate change, and answer the question of how much a particular recent event’s likelihood of recurrence or intensity has changed relative to the past.

While there’s mounting evidence in the role of climate change in amplifying the severity of heat waves, evidence of a climate change signal has not been found in a majority of extreme precipitation studies published in this special edition, Herring said.

However, she cautioned that the lack of clear evidence of a climate signal did not necessarily mean climate change played no role in an event. A “null” result could mean the event fell within the bounds of natural variability. It could also mean that the framing of the research question or the method of analysis chosen requires further refinement and development.

Identifying analytical methods that work better than others

Contributing authors choose the event they wish to study, so the new studies are neither a random sample nor a comprehensive survey of extreme weather events.  They do illustrate how various methods can be applied to extreme event analysis, she said, and in cases where multiple groups look at the same event, the relative skill of different approaches can be compared.

“With this report, we continue to document scientists’ growing ability to identify how climate change influences today’s weather,” said Jeff Rosenfeld, editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, which independently conducts the peer reviews for studies included in this special report. “These accessible and brief papers show the scientific community and the public that once seemingly impossible insights about climate impacts are now within the capability of timely, rigorous science.”