Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday along with the low temperatures Friday:
78 – 59 Lihue, Kauai
78 – 60 Honolulu, Oahu
77 – 57 Molokai AP
79 – 67 Kahului AP, Maui
78 – 66 Kailua Kona
77 – 66 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:
1.38 Kilohana, Kauai
0.51 Kamananui Stream, Oahu
0.02 Molokai
0.01 Lanai
0.10 Kahoolawe
1.23 Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.81 Kahua Ranch, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:
25 Moloaa Dairy, Kauai – NW
24 Bellows, Oahu – SW
25 Molokai – SW
21 Lanai – SW
24 Kahoolawe – SW
32 Kaupo Gap, Maui – N
36 Puu Mali, Big Island – NE
Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
A low pressure system to the north of Hawaii…will keep off and on showers and the possibility of a few thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend into Monday
The unusual low pressure system, spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion to the north of Hawaii, will drop down very close to the state this weekend…bringing weather changes our way
The southern edge of this low pressure system is digging into the islands now, bringing more showers our way into the weekend
Showers locally – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…most coasts and channels statewide
High Surf Advisory…west shores of Oahu, and north shores of the Big Island
High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai and Molokai, north shores of Oahu and Maui
High Wind Warning…Big Island summits / 45-60 with 80 mph gusts
Gale Warning…offshore waters 40-240 Nautical miles out
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Winds will be from the west to southwest and locally gusty. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems northwest, with another stronger high pressure cell located far north-northeast. At the same time, we have a tightly wound low pressure system just to the north. Winds will be locally gusty from the west to southwest as this low pressure system moves closer to the islands this weekend. Then, as the low shifts to the east of the state later Sunday into next Monday, our winds will veer to the southeast, potentially carrying volcanic haze (vog) over the smaller islands. Looking even further ahead, we should see the return of trade winds next Tuesday for several days.
An impressive low pressure system, just to the north of Hawaii is approaching the state…after recently pushing its associated cold front through the islands. We’ll see showers falling locally tonight into Saturday, along with the chance of a few thunderstorms popping up here and there. However, the wettest period over the next several days will likely occur Sunday and Monday…prompting the chance of localized flooding issues. Following this episode of unsettled weather, we should find numerous windward showers returning, brought in on the trade winds beginning later Monday into Tuesday for a few days. We might actually see a more typical trade wind weather pattern, with a drying trend returning by the middle of next week, finally. Thereafter, and this is way out there, some of the models are starting to show a wet looking cold front edging towards the state later next week. I know, I know, that’s the Christmas weekend!
Marine environment details: The morning surface analysis and satellite imagery showed a large gale force low pressure center centered a few hundred miles north of Kauai, which was drifting southward. The overnight satellite pass showed 35 to 40 knot north and northwest winds to its west…pointed at our local marine waters. This general trend will continue across the remainder of the Hawaiian waters today, and will persist through early Saturday morning before beginning to lower.
The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include all of the exposed coastal waters through Saturday. Surf heights for Kauai have been raised to reflect the current observations that are coming in above the predicted levels. A High Surf Advisory is now in effect for the northern/windward coast of the Big Island, which should fill in later today through tonight.
The latest model shows this gale north of the waters, slowly tracking southward toward the Kauai waters over the weekend, then southwest of the marine areas by early next week. All guidance supports a gradual weakening trend as this system approaches and moves through. A cold front associated with this gale is currently over the Big Island waters and is forecast to stall east of the Big Island through the weekend. High pressure will build south early next week, as the low moves away from the waters and weakens further.
Local winds will steadily shift from the northwest to the west-southwest today through Saturday…then toward the south-southeast later in the weekend as the low drifts south-southwest. The best chance for advisory level winds will remain over the typically windier channel waters through tonight.
A combination of the local winds, large surf and higher than normal high tides could translate to overwash onto the typical vulnerable roadways through Saturday morning. This best chance for this will be around the times of high tides.
A new west-northwest swell is expected to fill in locally beginning Saturday night, peak through the day Sunday, then ease into the new week ahead. This source is from a hurricane force low, that was analyzed yesterday morning over the far northwest Pacific near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Surf associated with this source could reach advisory levels along north and west facing shores Sunday if it comes in slightly larger than expected.
Large surf along our north and west shores
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: ‘Chemtrails’ not real, say atmospheric science experts – Well-understood physical and chemical processes can easily explain the alleged evidence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program, commonly referred to as “chemtrails” or “covert geoengineering,” concludes a new study from Carnegie Science, University of California Irvine, and the nonprofit organization Near Zero.
Some groups and individuals erroneously believe that the long-lasting condensation trails, or contrails, left behind aircraft are evidence of a secret large-scale spraying program. They call these imagined features “chemtrails.” Adherents of this conspiracy theory sometimes attribute this alleged spraying to the government and sometimes to industry.
The authors of this study, including Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira, conducted a survey of the world’s leading atmospheric scientists, who categorically rejected the existence of a secret spraying program. The team’s findings, published by Environmental Research Letters, are based on a survey of two groups of experts: atmospheric chemists who specialize in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution.
The survey results show that 76 of the 77 participating scientists said they had not encountered evidence of a secret spraying program, and agree that the alleged evidence cited by the individuals who believe that atmospheric spraying is occurring could be explained through other factors, such as typical airplane contrail formation and poor data sampling.
The research team undertook their study in response to the large number of people who claim to believe in a secret spraying program. In a 2011 international survey, nearly 17 percent of respondents said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric spraying program to be true or partly true. And in recent years a number of websites have arisen claiming to show evidence of widespread secret chemical spraying, which they say is linked to negative impacts on human health and the environment.
“We wanted to establish a scientific record on the topic of secret atmospheric spraying programs for the benefit of those in the public who haven’t made up their minds,” said Steven Davis of UC Irvine. “The experts we surveyed resoundingly rejected contrail photographs and test results as evidence of a large-scale atmospheric conspiracy.”
The research team says they do not hope to sway those already convinced that there is a secret spraying program — as these individuals usually only reject counter-evidence as further proof of their theories — but rather to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse.
“Despite the persistence of erroneous theories about atmospheric chemical spraying programs, until now there were no peer-reviewed academic studies showing that what some people think are ‘chemtrails’ are just ordinary contrails, which are becoming more abundant as air travel expands. Also, it is possible that climate change is causing contrails to persist for longer periods than they used to.” Caldeira said. “I felt it was important to definitively show what real experts in contrails and aerosols think. We might not convince die-hard believers that their beloved secret spraying program is just a paranoid fantasy, but hopefully their friends will accept the facts.”
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