Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday along with the low temperatures Saturday:

79 – 67  Lihue, Kauai
78 – 70  Honolulu, Oahu
74 – 71  Molokai AP
74 – 70  Kahului AP, Maui
77 – 71  Kailua Kona
77 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

0.99  N Wailua ditch, Kauai
0.48  Punaluu Pump, Oahu
 0.70  Molokai
0.87  Lanai
2.14  Kahoolawe
1.63  Mahinahina, Maui
1.54  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

12  Waimea Heights, Kauai
17  Kalaeloa, Oahu
13  Molokai
15  Lanai
14  Kahoolawe
28  Kula 1, Maui
15  Ahumoa, Big Island

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Low pressure over the western part of the state…is drawing clouds up over the eastern islands

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Considerable clouds over Maui County and the Big Island, while Kauai and Oahu are digging themselves out from under the forever overcast

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Multi-layered clouds with embedded showers, over Maui County and the Big Island…are slowly moving northeast and east

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Showers, some locally generous over or around Maui County and parts of the Big Island – Looping radar image


Winter Weather Warning…Big Island Summits
webcam

Wind Advisory…Big Island Summits – 25-45 with 70 mph gusts

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Our winds will remain quite light through this weekend…into the new week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a high pressure system far east-northeast. At the same time, we have a weak low pressure system with its associated cold front/trough to our north. As a result, winds will remain light, prompting daytime onshore sea breezes…followed by offshore flowing land breezes during the nights. Meanwhile, the breezes over the open ocean are coming up from the south to southeast, bringing volcanic haze over the smaller islands at times locally.

A long lasting area of low pressure now over the western islands, will keep showers over Maui County and the Big Island…in an off and on manner into Monday. These showers will be hit and miss in nature, while our skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout. The exception will be over Kauai and Oahu, where daytime sunshine will grace those islands going forward. As we get into the later part of the weekend, into the middle of the new week, we should see a more general clearing, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. Thereafter, computer models continue to hint that yet another low pressure system will approach the state to our west, setting up an unusual Kona Low weather pattern…with the chance of very wet weather returning Thursday and Friday.

Marine environment details: A low pressure system is located several hundred miles north of the state. The latest satellite pass showed a fetch of 30-40 knot winds about 150 miles long…aimed at the state. Models show the low weakening this weekend, but moving southward as it does. This will contribute to a north to north-northeast swell through early early in the new week.

A northwest swell associated with a gale currently near the International Dateline is expected to fill in Monday, peak Monday night, then lower Tuesday through Wednesday. Models remain in good agreement showing another gale developing northeast of Japan Sunday, and tracking toward the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. A new northwest swell will likely fill in across the state from this source Thursday, and hold into next weekend before lowering. Although confidence remains low this far out in the forecast, advisory level surf along north and west facing shores is possible from Friday into Saturday.

A possible strong Kona Low developing near or to the west of the area late in the week, could lead to a period of moderate to strong southerly winds. A combination of local winds and the building northwest swell will likely translate to Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning as early as Friday.

Friday Evening Film: A new film just came out, which I hadn’t heard of nor seen a trailer for…as it snuck up on us. It’s called Miss Sloane, starring Jessica Chastain, Mark Strong, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Sam Waterston, John Lithgow, Grace Lynn Kung, and Jake Lacy…among many others. The synopsis: In the high-stakes world of political power-brokers, Elizabeth Sloane (Jessica Chastain) is the most sought after and formidable lobbyist in D.C. Known equally for her cunning and her track record of success, she has always done whatever is required to win. But when she takes on the most powerful opponent of her career, she finds that winning may come at too high a price. / My friend Jeff and I saw this together, and were both surprised at how good it turned out to be. Jessica Chastain gave a wonderful lead performance, stunningly good in fact! The supporting actors surrounding her were outstanding as well. The long and short of it was that we both gave A grades to this very smart and riveting film. Here’s the trailer if you’d like to take a quick look.

Saturday Evening Upcountry Maui: Of course you’ve noticed…the long lasting multi-level cloudiness, with off and on moisture moving up in waves from the deeper tropics to our southwest to southeast. Most of these showers have been generally light, although, they’ve congregated over some areas rather extensively at times. At the moment, all I hear are the eaves dripping off my weather tower roof, here in Kula…rather than the sounds of raindrops hitting my weather deck behind me  ~~~ Finally, and you’ll know what I mean if you live here in the islands. 

The air temperature at ~3,100 feet, around 630pm HST, outside on my weather deck, was 61.5F degrees…not too chilly, rather comfortable in fact. Although, I should tell you that the temperature inside my tower is a warmer 68.9 degrees.

Now at 9pm, what else is new? Yes, it’s raining in a moderately heavy fashion, steadily for the last or so.

 

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This long lasting wet episode doesn’t want to give up…although a gradual improvement is on the horizon now

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 05B (Vardah) remains active in the Bay of Bengal, taking aim on the southeast coast of India. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Sea ice hit record lows in November – Unusually high air temperatures and a warm ocean have led to a record low Arctic sea ice extent for November, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic sea ice extent also hit a record low for the month, caused by moderately warm temperatures and a rapid shift in circumpolar winds.

“It looks like a triple whammy—a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged 3.51 million square miles for November, 753,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for the month. Although the rate of Arctic ice growth was slightly faster than average, total extent actually decreased for a brief period in the middle of the month. The decrease in extent measured 19,300 square miles, and was observed mostly in the Barents Sea, an area of the Arctic Ocean north of Norway, Finland, and Eastern Russia.

NSIDC scientists said the decrease in extent is almost unprecedented for November in the satellite record; a less pronounced and brief retreat of 5,400 square miles happened in 2013. November 2016 is now the seventh month this year to have hit a record low extent in the 38-year satellite monitoring period. The November extent was 3.2 standard deviations below the long-term average, a larger departure than observed in September 2012 when the Arctic summer minimum extent hit a record low.

Arctic sea ice is still in the early stages of winter freeze-up and is expected to continue expanding until it hits its maximum extent around March next year.

NSIDC scientists said unusually high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean, persistent winds from the south, and a warm ocean worked together to drive the record low Arctic extent. Extending from northeast of Greenland towards Svalbard and Severnaya Zemlya, air temperatures at about 2,500 feet above sea level were up to 18 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1981 to 2010 long-term average for the month. Sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Kara Seas remained unusually high, up to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average around Novaya Zemlya and Svalbard, preventing ice formation. These high temperatures reflected a pattern of winds from the south, which also helped to push the ice northward and reduce the ice extent.

NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve was in Svalbard during November and noted the lack of sea ice. “Typically sea ice begins to form in the fjords at the beginning of November, but this year there was no ice to be found,” she said.

In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice surrounding the continent of Antarctica declined very quickly early in the month and set a record low. The average extent for November was 5.61 million square miles, 699,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 average. This was more than twice the previous record departure from average set in November 1986 and was 5.7 standard deviations below the long-term average.

NSIDC scientists said that higher-than-average temperatures and a rapid shift in Antarctic circumpolar winds appear to have caused the rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice.

Air temperatures 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average, and an earlier pattern of strong westerly winds worked to create a more dispersed sea ice pack in the Antarctic. A rapid shift to a more varied wind structure, with three major areas of winds from the north, rapidly compressed low-concentration sea ice around Wilkes Land, Dronning Maud Land, Enderby Land, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Moreover, several very large polynyas (areas of open water within the pack) have opened in the eastern Weddell and along the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea coast.

“Antarctic sea ice really went down the rabbit hole this time,” said NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos. “There are a few things we can say about what happened, but we need to look deeper.”

NASA scientist and NSIDC affiliate scientist Walt Meier said, “The Arctic has typically been where the most interest lies, but this month, the Antarctic has flipped the script and it is southern sea ice that is surprising us.”