Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday along with the low temperatures Friday:

83 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 74  Molokai AP
85 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 72  Kailua Kona
82 – 67  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

0.27  Kilohana, Kauai
0.05  Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
 0.03  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.92  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.68  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:

21  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
29  Molokai
27  Lanai
36  Kahoolawe
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui
35  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A storm low pressure system is spinning far to our northeast, with the tail end of an associated cold front pushing south into the tropics, which will bring some showers into the islands

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
The fragmenting cloud band is just north, with thunderstorms (the brighter white clouds) well southwest through south of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Scattered clouds…showery frontal band looming just north

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Showers will be increasing this weekend – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…all Hawaiian coasts and channels


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

The gusty trade wind flow will prevail through the rest of this week into next week, with no end in sight. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems to the north and east of Hawaii. A series of high pressure cells will continue to move west to east, well to Hawaii’s north. This in turn will keep our trade winds very active, especially during the days, while somewhat lighter at night. These trades are stronger and more persistent than normal for this time of year. Perhaps the strongest trade wind speeds through the next week will occur by next Tuesday into Thursday.

Here’s a wind profile of the offshore waters around the islands – and a closer look

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic, showing vog forecast

Windward showers increasing over the next few days, while the leeward sides remain less showery. An autumn trade wind weather pattern will prevail, along with a few windward showers at times locally. As we push into early Saturday, a weakening cold front will be carried into the islands, bringing an increase in showers. The bulk of this moisture will be deposited along the windward sides, although with a few being carried over into the leeward sections on the gusty winds. This off and on shower activity will likely persist into early next week. The long range outlook continues to paint the Thanksgiving holiday rather wet, especially along the windward sides.

Marine environment details: A new northwest swell has arrived this morning and continues to rise at the nearshore buoys. The latest model guidance remains on track and depicts this swell beginning to ease tonight through the weekend.

Impacts from this swell will include hazardous boating conditions, especially around harbor entrances, and dangerous surf along the exposed north and west facing shores. A Small Craft Advisory and High Surf advisory remain in effect for the exposed waters and coastal areas through tonight. If the timing of this event lines up with the latest guidance, surf should drop below advisory-levels by Saturday as this swell steadily eases. This downward trend is expected to continue through the weekend.

In addition to the large swell and surf, advisory-level winds are expected over portions of the marine area through the weekend, due to high pressure building far north of the state in the wake of a dissipating front approaching from the north. The strongest winds will remain over the typically windier channel waters each day. Winds may near gale levels over these windier areas by the middle of next week, as strong high pressure builds north of the region in the wake of another front passing well north of the state.

~~~  An inspiring, although challenging National Geographic film called Before the Flood…with Leonardo DiCaprio (full screen best viewing)


~~~ Friday Evening Film: those of you who were following my recent travelogue know that I’ve been seeing most of the current films, at least the ones that appealed to me. This evening I’m going to see the new one called Arrival, starring Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker, Michael Stuhlbarg, Tzi Ma…among many others! The synopsis, when mysterious spacecraft touch down across the globe, an elite team…lead by expert linguist Louise Banks (Amy Adams)…are brought together to investigate. As mankind teeters on the verge of global war, Banks and the team race against time for answers–and to find them, she will take a chance that could threaten her life, and quite possibly humanity. The critics are being very generous with this film, so I had high hopes. In addition, many of my close friends have seen this film, and are giving high grades as well.

I enjoyed this emotional sci-fi, although it wasn’t an easy film to figure out, and left me wondering about what it all meant in the end. The alien invaders were certainly unique, like nothing else I’ve seen. One critic wrote, “one of the premier extra-terrestrail films of the century.”  I appreciated the fact that this film didn’t blow up Intelligent Life, but rather empathized communication and focused listening instead. It was both robust and delicate in equal measure, which isn’t common in most films I see these days. It asked the audience to imagine how we might respond, emotionally rather than militarily…in the event of an arrival from outer space. In case this strokes your imagination and interest, here’s the trailer.

 

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Windy with waves north, west, and east shores, with showers arriving, mostly along our windward sides into this weekend…although not exclusively


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Corals Survived Caribbean Climate Change – Half of all coral species in the Caribbean went extinct between 1 and 2 million years ago, probably due to drastic environmental changes. Which ones survived? Scientists working at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) think one group of survivors, corals in the genus Orbicella, will continue to adapt to future climate changes because of their high genetic diversity.

“Having a lot of genetic variants is like buying a lot of lottery tickets,” said Carlos Prada, lead author of the study and Earl S. Tupper Post-doctoral Fellow at STRI. “We discovered that even small numbers of individuals in three different species of the reef-building coral genus Orbicella have quite a bit of genetic variation, and therefore, are likely to adapt to big changes in their environment.”

 “The implications of these findings go beyond basic science,” said Monica Medina, research associate at STRI and the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History and associate professor at Pennsylvania State University. “We can look forward to using similar approaches to predict demographic models to better manage the climate change-threatened Orbicella reefs of today.” 

To look back in time, the team of researchers working at the Smithsonian’s Bocas del Toro Research Station and Naos Molecular and Marine Laboratories collected fossils from ancient coral reefs and used high-resolution geologic dating methods to determine their ages. They compared the numbers of fossilized coral species at different time points. One of the best-represented groups in the fossil collections were species in the genus Orbicella. In addition to the fossil collections, they also used whole genome sequencing to estimate current and past numbers of several Orbicella species.

Within a single individual there are two copies of their genetic material, and in some instances, one copy is different than the other and is called a genetic variant. The authors first assembled the full genomic sequence of an individual from Florida and then, using it as an anchor, reconstructed the genetic variation contained within single individuals. Depending on the amount of the genetic variation at certain intervals across the genome, the authors were able to recover the population sizes of each species at different times in the past.

Between 3.5 to 2.5 million years ago, numbers of all coral species increased in the Caribbean. But from 2 to 1.5 million years ago, a time when glaciers moved down to cover much of the northern hemisphere and sea surface temperatures plunged, the number of coral species in the Caribbean also took a nosedive. Sea levels fell, eliminating much of the original shallow, near-shore habitat.

 “Apart from the species that exist today, all species of Orbicella that survived until 2 million years ago suddenly went extinct,” write the authors. When huge numbers of species die out, it makes room for other species to move in and for new species to develop to occupy the space the others held.

Two species that grow best in shallow water doubled in number at about the same time that their sister species and competitor, the organ pipe Orbicella (O. nancyi) disappeared.

When a species declines during an extinction event, it loses more and more genetic variation and sometimes does not have much to work with during the recovery period. Scientists call this a genetic bottleneck. Orbicella was able to recover after the bottleneck.

“It’s incredible how predictions from genetic data correlated so well with observations from the fossil and environmental record,” said Michael DeGiorgio, assistant professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University.

“We see hope in our results that Orbicella species survived a dramatic environmental variation event,” said Prada. “It is likely that surviving such difficult times made these coral populations more robust and able to persist under future climatic change.”