Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

87 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 76  Molokai AP
90 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui 
87 – 77  Kona AP
84 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Monday evening:

2.43  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.54  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Haiku, Maui
1.55  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Monday evening:

27  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Kuaokala, Oahu
31  Molokai
33  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
33  Maalaea Bay, Maui
31  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Tropical Storm Lester continues moving further away from the state

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Tropical Storm Lester far offshore north Hawaii…with a weak tropical disturbance well southwest of the state

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Lester is spinning away steadily

 

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Just a few showers…mostly offshore – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island


Celebrating Labor Day

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

A trade wind flow will prevail this week into early next week…as high pressure remains to the north through northeast of the islands. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1029 millibar high pressure system, the source of our local trades now. The models suggest that this high pressure cell will weaken a little towards the end of the week…with trade winds easing slightly then as well.

In the wake of departing TS Lester, we’ll find a late summer, trade wind weather pattern through the rest of the week. A weak upper level feature is forecast to move near the islands…towards the later part of the week. This may result in the overlying atmosphere becoming slightly less stable. This in turn could prompt trade showers to become a little more active Friday into the weekend.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the animation of the volcanic emissions from the Big Island vents…and where they’re headed

Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windier marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island, and will likely be required for the majority of this week. Decreasing winds late in the week will likely allow the SCA to be dropped.

Although not large, the surf over the next couple of days will break along the south and east facing shores. Along east facing shores, trade wind swells will provide small to moderate surf. A pair of lows joined forces about a week ago to the east of New Zealand, resulting in a fetch that generated a south-southwest swell. While the bulk of the swell energy will miss the islands to the east, some of it will spread toward the islands the next few days. Peak surf heights along south facing shores are expected to remain below advisory levels, although elevated surf is expected from Tuesday into Friday…with peak surf heights around Wednesday.

 

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Pleasant weather…with refreshing trade winds


World-wide tropical cyclone activity..

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine) is over Atlantic Ocean, located about 110 miles south of the eastern tip of Long Island, New York…here’s a satellite image

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5+gif/205108W_sm.gif


1.) A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. A low pressure area is expected to form in association with the wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system after that time while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

1.)  Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development of this system is unlikely as the wave moves across the Caribbean Sea this week. Periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds could occur over Hispaniola today and over Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Wednesday in association with this disturbance.

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 92L, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 15E (Newton), remains active and about to move over Baja California, located about 110 miles northwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP1516W5+gif/205132W_sm.gif

1.) Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it drifts eastward, and then turns northward later in the week.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 91E, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible after that time while it moves westward or west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm Lester remains active in the Central Pacific, located about 960 miles north-northwest of Honolulu, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer model are showing

1.) A disturbance centered about 1050 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, is moving west around 10 mph. Isolated thunderstorms in the area remain sparse and disorganized. Atmospheric conditions are only slightly favorable for further development of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate change could make coffee extinct by 2080 – The sun may be setting on a popular morning brew. According to a new report issued by the Climate Institute, global warming will underpin an estimated 50 percent drop in coffee production by 2050. Bad news for coffee lovers, but catastrophic for the 120 million people in dozens of mostly developing nations who depend on the coffee trade to make ends meet.

The report predicts that worldwide coffee production will drop by half over the next three decades due to climbing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, rendering regions historically suited for coffee cultivation unable to meet global demand. Production may be forced to move away from low-level equatorial regions and higher up into forested mountains causing new negative ecological impacts. Significantly altered micro-climates will affect both coffee quality and yield sizes.

“It’s not just the heat, which is a big factor which is driving some of the regions where coffee is produced uphill,” John Connor, Climate Institute’s chief executive officer, told ABC. “We’re also seeing extra diseases increasing and being able to go up into those areas.”

The overall outlook is bleak, although earlier studies had indicated that Honduras, Indonesia and Vietnam are producing more coffee than usual. Mexican coffee fields will become “nonviable” first,  followed quickly by Nicaragua; both regions are expected to lose commercial productivity by 2050.  Brazil, the world’s largest coffee grower, has been crippled by heat waves since 2014, which have devastated harvests and prompted retail price hikes.

Beans most affected have been popular Robusto and Arabica, the latter requires sequential rainy and dry seasons to mature. This is noteworthy since Arabica beans, which originated in mountainous regions of Ethiopia and Yemen, are the basis for 75 percent of the world’s coffee. Robusta – so named as it is more tolerant of climactic differences – is expected to become extinct in the Congo (its birthplace) by 2050.

Currently, according to the folks at Climate Institute, we drink about 2.25 billion cups of coffee daily, and global demand is rising. The report concludes that unless climate change is addressed, wild coffee could become extinct worldwide by 2080.

“We have a cloud hovering over our head. It’s dramatically serious. Climate change can have a significant adverse effect in the short term,” Mario Cerutti, a director at Lavazza, one of Italy’s top coffee roasting companies, told Think Progress. “It’s no longer about the future; it’s the present.”

Industry officials have been issuing warnings for years. In 2011, Starbucks director of environmental affairs, Jim Hanna told the Guardian, “What we are really seeing as a company as we look 10, 20, 30 years down the road?—?if conditions continue as they are?—?is a potentially significant risk to our supply chain.”  Hanna pointed out that farmers were already seeing how climate change was creating severe hurricanes and more resistant bugs.

While big business forms coalitions to press governments to tackle a changing climate, what can the individual coffee drinker do? The report urges consumers to choose carbon-neutral brands and also demand action from companies and governments to ensure all products, business models, and economies are carbon neutral or carbon negative. Green Prophet suggests you also cultivate an appreciation for plain water.

“Our concern is primarily for the 25 million farmers out there whose entire livelihoods depend on this incredibly important global commodity,” Molly Harriss Olson, chief executive of Fairtrade Australia and New Zealand, which commissioned the report, told ABC. “We’ve got to build a new economy that doesn’t threaten things in our lifestyle such as our coffee.”

Consider coffee brand Maxwell House and its iconic slogan, Good to the Last Drop!, which may turn out to be the world’s most prescient advertising motto.