Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

88 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 77  Molokai AP
87 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui 
90 – 78  Kona AP
83 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Wednesday night:

0.85  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.11  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.78  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
4.00  Puu Kukui, Maui
9.21  Waiakea Uka, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Wednesday night:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
61  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
35  Molokai
35  Lanai
42  Kahoolawe
39  Kaupo Gap, Maui
40  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Tropical Storm Madeline is moving by south of the Big Island, while category 2 Hurricane Lester has moved into our central Pacific…on a weakening trend

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2016/graphics/EP142016W.gif

 http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2016/graphics/EP132016W.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical Storm Madeline is moving by south of the state, with Hurricane Lester following in its wake…although taking a more northerly track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Showers are active over the Big Island…then the other islands with time


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14E/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif
Tropical Storm Madeline is on a weakening trend…as wind shear increases aloft

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Heavy rains are offshore just to the south of the Big Island – Looping radar image

Wind Advisory…until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaii islands

High Surf Advisory…until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Windward, Oahu Koolau, Olomana, Molokai Windward, Maui Windward West, Windward Haleakala, South Big Island, Big Island North and East

Flash Flood Watch…through this afternoon for Big Island

Gale Warning…until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters

Small Craft Advisory…until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

I’d like to point out that we have possible inclement weather conditions on the horizon here on Maui, and I may lose my power, which would cut off my ongoing weather updates…just so you know.

Tropical Storm Madeline is moving by to the south of the Big Island…bringing tropical storm conditions locally. Madeline will depart west of the Big Island, and track south of the other islands through the night, bringing a breezy to windy trade wind pattern to portions of the state. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1031 millibar high pressure system north-northeast of Hawaii, in contrast with Madeline…which has a 1003 millibar low pressure rating. This large pressure gradient will cause locally strong and gusty trade winds across parts of the state.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Deep tropical moisture will remain near the Big Island, with the rain becoming heavy at times particularly tonight. Some heavier showers will also be possible over Maui, with a breezy to windy trade wind pattern expected across the remainder of the island chain. This moisture will provide a wet period of late summer weather…with localized flooding issues. Rainfall estimates run as high as 5-15 inches over parts of the Big Island, with 4 inches over the windward parts of Maui County. Then, during the second half of the upcoming weekend, we may find another round of wet weather. This will be in response to Hurricane Lester, potentially sliding by not far offshore to our north. Finally, on a more positive note, our weather is expected to improve beginning next Monday onward, which of course is the Labor Day holiday.

HAZARDS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS –

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over Hawaii County and portions of Maui County tonight. Winds will be strongest over mountains and where winds blow downslope from higher terrain.

SURF: Large swells generated by Madeline will peak in Hawaiian waters overnight, and could be damaging along east facing shores of Hawaii County, especially in the Puna and Kau Districts.

RAIN: Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across Hawaii County, especially over windward areas and the Kau District. Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 4 inches, can be expected in the islands of Maui County, mainly over windward terrain. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Marine environment details: The combination of winds and seas resulting from Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester will result in hazardous boating conditions in most marine zones through the weekend.

High surf can be expected along east facing shores in association with Madeline. The largest waves will be along east facing shores of the Big Island, with heights becoming lower as you go up the island chain. There will also be a bit of an increase along some south and west facing shores once the system moves west of the Big Island.

Surf along east facing shores associated with Madeline will ease or lower today for a brief period, before rising once again in response to Hurricane Lester approaching the region from the east. Surf will likely reach warning levels along the exposed east facing shores of all islands by the weekend.

Winds, seas and surf will diminish after the passage of Lester…with a typical trade wind pattern setting up.

 

  http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/736x/e9/e1/0d/e9e10de4d455970899994fc45c61532e.jpg
Larger than normal surf for the summer season


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

 

https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about a 650 miles to the west of the central Azores…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0716W5+gif/203810W_sm.gif

1.)  A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic ocean located about 700 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce only limited shower activity. This wave is expected to be in an environment of very dry air for the next few days, which should prevent significant development during that time. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the wave is near the Lesser Antilles early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: 

Tropical Storm 09L (Hermine) remains active in the Gulf of Mexico, located about 220 miles west of Tampa, Florida…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5+gif/205108W_sm.gif

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

1.) Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy rain, flash floods and mud slides are possible in those areas starting tomorrow and continuing through the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is expected to drift westward during the next few days, and any development should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm Madeline remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 325 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

Hurricane Lester remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 750 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer model are showing

1.) A surface low about 930 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, is moving west at 10 to 15 mph. Widely scattered thunderstorms occurring near the low show no signs of increasing organization. Environmental conditions are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone formation over the next two days.

Here’s a satellite image of Invest 92C

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 20 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 15W (Namtheun) remains active, located approximately 158 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image …and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate change has less impact on drought than previously expected – As a multiyear drought grinds on in the Southwestern United States, many wonder about the impact of global climate change on more frequent and longer dry spells. As humans emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, how will water supply for people, farms, and forests be affected?

A new study from the University of California, Irvine and the University of Washington shows that water conserved by plants under high CO2 conditions compensates for much of the effect of warmer temperatures, retaining more water on land than predicted in commonly used drought assessments.

According to the study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the implications of plants needing less water with more CO2 in the environment changes assumptions of climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, wildfire risk, and plant growth.

The study compares current drought indices with ones that take into account changes in plant water use. Reduced precipitation will increase droughts across southern North America, southern Europe and northeastern South America. But the results show that in Central Africa and temperate Asia — including China, the Middle East, East Asia and most of Russia — water conservation by plants will largely counteract the parching due to climate change.

“This study confirms that drought will intensify in many regions in the future,” said coauthor James Randerson, UCI professor of Earth system science. “It also shows that plant water needs will have an important influence on water availability, and this part of the equation has been neglected in many drought and hydrology studies.”

Recent studies have estimated that more than 70 percent of our planet will experience more drought as carbon dioxide levels quadruple from pre-industrial levels over about the next 100 years. But when researchers account for changes in plants’ water needs, this falls to 37 percent, with bigger differences concentrated in certain regions.

The reason is that when Earth’s atmosphere holds more carbon dioxide, plants actually benefit from having more of the molecules they need to build their carbon-rich bodies. Plants take in carbon dioxide through tiny openings called stomata that cover their leaves. But as they draw in carbon dioxide, moisture escapes. When carbon dioxide is more plentiful, the stomata don’t need to be open for as long, and so the plants lose less water. The plants thus draw less water from the soil through their roots.

Global climate models already account for these changes in plant growth. But many estimates of future drought use today’s standard indices, like the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which only consider atmospheric variables such as future temperature, humidity and precipitation.

“New satellite observations and improvements in our understanding hydrological cycle have led to significant advances in our ability to model changes in soil moisture,” said Randerson. “Unfortunately, using proxy estimates of drought stress can give us misleading results because they ignore well-established principles from plant physiology.”

Planners will need accurate long-term drought predictions to design future water supplies, anticipate ecosystem stresses, project wildfire risks and decide where to locate agricultural fields.

“In some sense there’s an easy solution to this problem, which is we just have to create new metrics that take into account what the plants are doing,” said lead author Abigail Swann, a University of Washington assistant professor of atmospheric sciences. “We already have the information to do that; we just have to be more careful about ensuring that we’re considering the role of the plants.”

Is this good news for climate change? Although the drying may be less extreme than in some current estimates, droughts will certainly increase, researchers said, and other aspects of climate change could have severe effects on vegetation.

“There’s a lot we don’t know, especially about hot droughts,” Swann said. The same drought at a higher temperature might have more severe impacts, she noted, or might make plants more stressed and susceptible to pests.

“Even if droughts are not extremely more prevalent or frequent, they may be more deadly when they do happen,” she said.