Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

87 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 77  Molokai AP
90 – 77  Kahului AP, Maui – record high 95 Thursday…back in 1949
89 – 76  Kona AP
87 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Thursday evening:

0.07  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.01  Waiahole, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.17  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.18  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday evening:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
50  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
33  Molokai
36  Lanai
44  Kahoolawe
36  Kahului AP, Maui
42  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Considerable high Cirrus clouds southwest and south of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms well south and southwest of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Extensive area of low clouds, all the way back to the west coast of the mainland, moving towards the islands on the trades…generally clear to partly cloudy in most areas nonetheless

 

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A few showers locally – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…all coasts and channels across the state

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Gusty trade wind weather will blow through Friday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1034 millibar high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii. High pressure will gradually build in north of the state Friday and on into the weekend. The trade winds are forecast to decrease slightly Saturday and Sunday…as an upper level low pressure system approaches from the east. The longer range outlook shows the continuation of the normal trade wind flow through the next week. As usual, these refreshing breezes will attain their strongest speeds during the days, calming down some during the relatively cooler nights. On average, the trade winds blow about 95% of the time during the month of July.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Clouds and limited showers will favor windward areas…although should become more active this weekend into early next week. There continues to be a rather extensive field of low clouds extending all the way to the west coast. These clouds, embedded in the trades, cover windward waters and bank-up along the windward slopes at times…leaving most leeward areas with clear skies. This rather placid summertime weather pattern will hold into the weekend, with clouds and light showers favoring windward areas. Meanwhile, an upper low east of the islands is expected to drift west, arriving in the vicinity of the islands later this weekend into early next week. At the same time, there will likely be an increase in leftover moisture from former tropical cyclone Georgette arriving then too. The combination of these two weather features will present the islands with a more active trade shower pattern. Clouds and showers will still favor windward areas…although the leeward sections could get lucky in places too.

Marine environment details: A high pressure system far northeast of the state will maintain breezy trade winds across the area through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all Hawaiian waters through Friday afternoon. Winds will taper off as a weak surface trough arrives from the east Friday night into Saturday. Some or all zones may drop out of the SCA this weekend.

The trade winds will result in choppy surf along east facing shores, but surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels. There will also be a series of small southerly swells through the weekend and into next week.

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World-wide tropical cyclone activity


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving westward at about 25 mph. The associated shower activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any development should be slow to occur. However, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

2.) Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development is possible during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Here’s a satellite image, along with what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Rainforest greener during ‘dry’ season – Although the Amazon Jungle may appear to be perpetually green, a University of Illinois researcher believes there are actually seasonal differences of photosynthesis (the process by which green plants and some other organisms use sunlight to synthesize foods from carbon dioxide and water. Photosynthesis in plants generally involves the green pigment chlorophyll and generates oxygen as a byproduct), with more occurring during the dry season and less during the wet season. Understanding how a rainforest that occupies 2.7 million square miles of South America functions is crucial to the future health of the entire planet.

“With the potential negative effects of climate change, one key question we are trying to answer in the study of tropical ecology is how a tropical forest responds during a long-term drought,” says Kaiyu Guan, an environmental scientist at the University of Illinois. “If we don’t know their daily performance or their seasonal performance, what confidence can we have to predict the forests’ future 20 years, 30 years, or longer?”

Analyzing data from several sources, including individual leaves, camera data from towers above the leaf canopy, and decadal long satellite images, Guan and his colleagues measured the photosynthesis rate over the landscape. Photosynthesis — the process green plants use to convert energy from the sun that plants use to grow — from tropical forests, plays a huge role in determining global atmospheric CO2 concentration, which is closely linked the global temperature and rate of climate change.

“Bringing all of the data together, we find that the dry season in the Amazon has increased photosynthesis,” says Guan. “There may be less photosynthesis in the wet season because of the cloud cover which limits the amount of light the plants can use.”

Guan explains that understanding the seasonality of photosynthesis can help scientists assess whether or not the Amazon is under stress and how it handles and recovers from stress.

“During the dry season, you would think that the plants would be water stressed and photosynthesis would decrease, but looking at multiple sources of data over the years we find that the plants are not stressed because there is ground water carried over from the previous year,” he says.

It does not appear to be just the quantity of leaves driving the higher photosynthesis during the dry season. Guan and his collaborators believe it is actually leaf quality which changes over leaf age that is at work.

“Leaf amount can only explain about 5 percent of all the photosynthesis variations, so what’s really going on? It’s the leaf quality. Putting it in a different way, when you are a baby, you aren’t very productive. When you become more mature, you’re more productive. Then, when you’re older, your productivity goes down again. It’s true for humans and it’s also true for plants. Leaves in tropical forests that are 3 or 4 months old are more productive. As you get to the end of the dry season, the leaves are aging and their productivity decreases again. So the combination of the leaf amount and the leaf quality together can satisfactorily explain the pattern,” Guan says.

Guan cautions that if the forest experiences several droughts, the carryover of water is depleted — the tropical forest responds to the climate.

“The rainforest also absorbs the majority of carbon,” Guan says. “It’s the engine that drives the carbon cycle for the whole world, which makes it important when we discuss climate changes. Global warming is dependent upon the atmospheric CO2 concentration, so we need to care about carbon.

“Most of the climate models are showing a drying down trend in tropical forests, with a longer dry season. That’s a cause for concern for the future of the Amazon,” Guan says. “If we neglect it, it can have consequences around the globe. We need to recognize the importance of this rainforest pattern in which our entire global ecosystem functions. The healthiness of these systems is highly relevant for human beings.”

In addition to being an assistant professor in ecohydrology and geoinformatics in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U of I, Guan has a joint appointment as a Blue Waters professor affiliated with the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA).

Using the same satellite technology, Guan is currently looking at agricultural systems in tropical and temperate regions like the U.S. Corn Belt. “We’d like to build a satellite-based system to monitor the entire United States food productivity in order to predict the crop yield.”