Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:
77 – 70 Lihue, Kauai
84 – 72 Honolulu, Oahu
80 – 67 Molokai AP
86 – 64 Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 73 Kailua Kona
90 – 66 Hilo AP, Hawaii – broke the high temperature record of 87…set back in 1986
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:
4.36 Kokee, Kauai
2.28 Poamoho, Oahu
0.55 Molokai
0.11 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.18 Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.09 Glenwood, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:
42 Mana, Kauai – NNE
42 Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
33 Molokai – NE
35 Lanai – NW
22 Kahaloowe – SW
28 Kaupo Gap, Maui – NE
25 Puu Mali, Big Island – NW
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
A cold front moving through the state…with high
cirrus clouds moving up from the southwest
High cirrus clouds moving over the Big Island and eastward…
along with a 200-250 mile wide frontal cloud band
Streak of high cirrus…and the leading edge of the cold front
has passed over Kauai, Oahu and Maui County, now on to
the Big Island
Showers are moderately heavy over Maui County…
heading towards the Big Island – looping radar image
Gusty north and northeasterly winds are expected into Thursday –
winds reaching 45 mph locally
Small Craft Wind Advisory…all coasts and channel waters
Gale Warning..windiest coasts and channels around Maui County
and the Big Island (34-47 knots)
High Wind Warning..Big Island summits above 8,000 feet / winds
50-60 mph with gusts to 75 at summits
High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Kauai, north shores
of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and west shores of Oahu and Molokai
Wind Advisory…windiest areas Maui County and the Big Island /
25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph, especially around Kona, the
Kohala District and the north Kau District on the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Winds becoming stronger from the north and northeast…in the wake of a cold front into Thursday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find high pressure systems far northeast and northwest of the state. At the same time, there’s a ridge of high pressure being pushed offshore to the south by the cold front. In the wake of the cold front we’ll see strong and gusty north to northeast winds for several days. This wind direction will bring cooler weather into the state, along with blowing the vog away. The outlook calls for lighter or easterly trade winds later this week…into the weekend.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Expect showers along the cold front…some of which may be briefly generous. The models go on to point out a notable period of chilly and windy weather in the wake of this cold front…keeping passing shower activity along our north and northeast coasts and slopes for several days. The leeward sides should be in better shape, although locally windy and cool, with an occasional shower being carried into those areas on the gusty winds. Fairly typical, late winter trade wind conditions will return later in the week…with the usual passing windward showers into the weekend.
Marine environment details: The small craft advisory remains posted near Kauai and Oahu and will expand to the remainder of the coastal waters. A gale warning has been posted for some of the windier locations beginning tomorrow. The stronger winds will likely come in behind the cold front, as the strong high pressure area moves closer to the islands. The small craft advisory is for a combination of winds and seas…due to the incoming north-northwest swell.
The low pressure system far north, that is associated with the cold front will generate elevated north-northwest swell, that may bring near advisory level rough surf along north…and possibly west facing shores through Wednesday. A moderate south-southwest swell will bring just below advisory level surf for south facing shores. This swell will gradually diminish through Thursday.
Strong and gusty trade winds will generate rough and choppy surf along the east facing shores later this week into the weekend, but surf will likely remain below advisory levels. Another a north-northwest swell is anticipated later this weekend, bringing possible advisory levels surf for north facing shores.
Here in Maui County...It was partly to mostly cloudy early this Tuesday morning…and there’s still extensive volcanic haze in the air. The high cirrus clouds will light up a nice pink color again this morning, and then likely again at sunset…like yesterday. Here in upcountry Kula, at my place, the air temperature was 49.2F degrees well before sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 65 degrees down in Kahului under partly cloudy skies, 68 out in Hana under clear skies, 64 at Maalaea Bay, and 46 atop the Haleakala summit. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 66 degrees, 65 at Lanai City, with 70 at the Molokai airport…with light rain falling.
– Mid-afternoon, with lots of clouds around on Maui, although with still some sunny spots here and there too. The winds are rather gusty from the south and southwest, and the vog remains over us as well. It’s so voggy, that I can’t see out and about from here in Kula, trying to spot any showers…riding in on these kona winds. The cold front’s main shower line is approaching Molokai at the time of this writing, after having brought some generous showers to Kauai and parts of Oahu.
– Early evening under cloudy and foggy skies, with light to moderately heavy rain falling here in upcountry Kula. The air temperature is falling quickly, after a rather warm day, despite the cloudy and voggy skies. Speaking of the vog, I’m thinking that we should wake up to a much clearer day Wednesday, as the strengthening northerly winds, will have cleared most of the vog out…finally! I see that Kahului and Kapalua are receiving heavy rain at the time of this writing!
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Study suggests impact of climate change on agriculture may be underestimated – Studies of how climate change might affect agriculture generally look only at crop yields — the amount of product harvested from a given unit of land. But climate change may also influence how much land people choose to farm and the number of crops they plant each growing season. A new study takes all of these variables into account, and suggests researchers may be underestimating the total effect of climate change on the world’s food supply.
One of the most critical questions surrounding climate change is how it might affect the food supply for a growing global population. A new study by researchers from Brown and Tufts universities suggests that researchers have been overlooking how two key human responses to climate — how much land people choose to farm, and the number of crops they plant — will impact food production in the future.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, focused on the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, an emerging global breadbasket that as of 2013 supplied 10 percent of the world’s soybeans. The researchers used variations in temperature and precipitation across the state over an eight-year period to estimate the sensitivity of the region’s agricultural production to climate change. Those historical comparisons can help in making predictions about the sensitivity of agriculture to future climate change.
The study found that, if the patterns from 2002 to 2008 hold in the future, an increase in average temperature in Mato Grosso of just 1 degree Celsius will lead to a nine to 13 percent reduction in overall production of soy and corn. “This is worrisome given that the temperature in the study region is predicted to rise by as much as 2 degrees by mid-century under the range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios,” said Avery Cohn, assistant professor of environment and resource policy at Tufts, who led the work while he was a visiting researcher at Brown.
But the study’s broader implications stem from the mechanisms behind the changes in agricultural output. Most studies of this kind look only at the extent to which climate shocks affect crop yield—the amount of product harvested from a given unit of agricultural land. But by only looking at that single variable, researchers can miss critical dynamics that can affect overall output, says Leah VanWey, professor of sociology at Brown and senior deputy director of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society (IBES).
“If you look at yields alone, you’re not looking at all of the information because there are economic and social changes going on as well,” said VanWey, one of the study’s senior authors. “You’re not taking into account farmers’ reactions to climate shocks.”
For example, farmers may react to decreasing yields by putting less land area into production because it’s simply not profitable. Farmers may also vary the number of crops they plant in a growing season. Double cropping—the planting of two successive crops in the same field in the same growing season—is common in Mato Grosso. If the weather is bad, farmers may alter their decision to plant a second crop.
For this new study, the researchers looked not only at crop yield, but also at year-to-year variation in crop area and double cropping. To develop those additional datasets, Cohn and VanWey worked with Jack Mustard, professor of earth, environmental and planetary sciences at Brown, and graduate student Stephanie Spera. Mustard and Spera gathered imagery of the Mato Grosso region from NASA’s MODIS satellite, which monitors land cover and land use all over the world.
In the satellite data, cropland is identified as areas that turn green during the growing season, and then quickly become brown, indicating a harvest. Two green-ups in the same growing season indicate the land is being double-cropped.
“The changes in cropping that we quantified with remotely sensed data were stunning,” Mustard said. “We can use those satellite data to better understand what’s happening from a climate, economic, and sociological standpoint.”
The study showed that temperature increases of 1 degree Celsius were associated with substantial decreases in both total crop area and double cropping. In fact, those decreases accounted for 70 percent of the overall loss in production found in the study. Only the remaining 30 percent was attributable to crop yield.
“Had we looked at yield alone, as most studies do, we would have missed the production losses associated with these other variables,” VanWey said.
Taken together, the results suggest that traditional studies “may be underestimating the magnitude of the link between climate and agricultural production,” Cohn said.
That’s especially true in places like Brazil, where agricultural subsidies are scarce compared with places like the U.S.
“This is an agricultural frontier in the tropics in a middle-income country,” VanWey said. “This is where the vast majority of agricultural development is going to happen in the next 30 to 50 years. So understanding how people respond in this kind of environment is going to be really important.”
VanWey said a next step for this line of research might be to repeat it in the U.S. to see if increased subsidies or insurance help to guard against these kinds of shocks. If so, it might inform policy decisions in emerging agricultural regions like Mato Grosso.
“We may need to figure out a way to create incentives — credit products or insurance — that can reduce farmers’ responses to climate shocks,” VanWey said.
Funding for the research was provided by NASA
Email Glenn James: 
