Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

82 – 67  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 67  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 65  Molokai AP
85 – 64  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 70  Kailua Kona
84 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:

0.31  Hanapepe, Kauai
0.19  Palisades, Oahu
0.01  Molokai
0.15  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.15  Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.39  Kapapala Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

24  Port Allen, Kauai – WSW
24  Kii, Oahu – SW
25  Molokai – NNE
20  Lanai – SW
20  Kahaloowe – SW
29  Kahului AP, Maui – NNE
24  Ahumoa, Big Island – SE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
A large storm low pressure system far north…along with an
approaching early spring cold front northwest of the islands


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
A thin and weakening cold front, which is only about
100 miles wide…is approaching from the northwest

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Mostly clear…with patchy clouds around locally

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
A few showers falling here and there…mostly around
the central islands – looping radar image


High Wind Warning…summits on the Big Island of Hawaii –
30-55 with 65 mph gusts

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels most areas
around the state

High Surf Warning…north and west facing shores of Kauai, Oahu,
Molokai, and north shore of Maui

 

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



South to southwest Kona winds ahead of a cold front into Tuesday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find high pressure systems far to the northeast and west-northwest of Hawaii. Looking further out to sea, we see a storm low pressure far to the north-northwest.  Finally, we see a weakening cold front quickly approaching the islands from the northwest…which will pass down through the state tonight into Tuesday. Our local winds locally strong and gusty from the south and southwest ahead of this cold front. We’ll likely see another short period of light winds…in the wake of the cold front. It looks as though we will return to light to moderately strong trade winds during the later part of this week into early next week.

Marine environment details: A northwest swell is expected to arrive in the islands Tuesday, peaking Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This swell is expected to bring high surf warning level surf to north and west facing shores. The swell is then expected to slowly subside through the end of the week. A small south swell will arrive Tuesday then linger through Wednesday.

A small craft advisory has been posted beginning Tuesday morning as seas will increase with the incoming swell. Expect additional areas to be added to the advisory as the swell builds.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Generally decent weather today, with a cold front approaching the state…bringing some showers. We’ll find the next cold front arriving over Kauai tonight, then pushing down through Oahu to Maui County on Tuesday. It’s likely to crawl down over the Big Island Tuesday night…where it will slowly dissipate Wednesday. This frontal boundary will bring a period of showers to the island chain, although it will have little upper level support…so showers aren’t expected to be very impressive. The longer range outlook then shows relatively drier weather returning during the later part of the week, with fairly routine windward showers at times into the weekend. The leeward sides should have nice weather during this extended forecast period, with few showers if any…and lots of daytime sunshine.

 

   http://www.myhawaiivacationguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/windy.jpg
Locally windy


Here in Maui County…We’re seeing a mostly clear start to this first day of the week over east Maui, although the west side of Maui, including Molokai and Lanai are quite cloudy in contrast. It’s still well before sunrise as I write these words, although it looks as though the volcanic haze is not around this morning. It’s clear and calm here in upcountry Kula, with the air temperature 47.1F degrees. The temperature at near the same time was 64 degrees down in Kahului under mostly cloudy skies, 64 out in Hana, and 43 atop the Haleakala summit. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 71 degrees, 64 at Lanai City with cloudy skies, with 71 at the Molokai airport…with cloudy skies. / Now at 835am, there are southerly breezes blowing, ahead of this next approaching cold front. / 1015am, it’s getting much windier around the state…certainly up here in Kula!

– Monday afternoon, with mostly clear skies, and locally strong wind gusts. There are only a few puffy clouds around, although almost the entire Maui County region is cloud free and sunny. Winds ahead of the next cold front remain strong and gusty, at least locally. Here on Maui, the winds are gusting up over 30 mph to almost 35 mph at times.

– Early evening, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The clouds are found mostly along our leeward, southwest facing slopes…thanks to the southwest kona winds. These winds have been, and continue to be strong and gusty…almost up to 40 mph in a few exposed locations. There are clouds being carried along in these kona winds, which are dropping a few showers over the central islands, including a couple over Maui. These are what we can call pre-frontal showers, although they aren’t likely to amount to all that much. Speaking of showers, the actual cold front won’t bring all that many showers either. It’s weakening, and is thin too, and with hardly any upper level support…don’t expect much precipitation from this thing.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: 

Tropical Cyclone 17S remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located approximately 726 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Winds are 40 knots sustained, with gusts to 50 mph. Here’s a satellite image, along with the JTWC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: The past, present and future of African dust – So much dust is scattered across the planet by the winds of the Sahara that it alters the climate. However, the emission and transport of this dust, which can reach the poles, fluctuate considerably. Although many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, no unambiguous relationship between this dust and the climate had been established until now. According to research carried out by a French-US team of researchers, meteorological events such as El Niño and rainfall in the Sahel have an impact on dust emission, by accelerating a Saharan wind downstream of the main mountain massifs of Northwest Africa. The scientists have also developed a new predictive model showing that emissions of Saharan dust will decline over the next hundred years. Their work is published in the March 2016 issue of the journal Nature.

The Sahara desert emits more dust than any other desert in the world. More than half of the dust deposited in the oceans originates in North Africa. This Saharan dust affects the climate: among other things, it contains nutrients that fertilize both land and water, it blocks or reflects sunlight, and it affects the formation of clouds and hurricanes. The dust consists mainly of aerosols measuring between 0.1 and 20 microns, which remain wind borne until they are deposited by their weight or by rainfall. Emission and dispersion of the dust is affected by a number of meteorological phenomena, such as El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation, rainfall in the Sahel, the Sahara Heat Low, and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. They depend in particular on the strength of a Saharan wind called the Harmattan, which accelerates when it blows across the mountain massifs of Northwest Africa. If its speed is high enough and it blows over dust source regions, it lifts the dust and disperses it.

In order to elucidate these complex relationships, the researchers carried out a statistical analysis of reconstructed twentieth-century data of winds ten meters above the surface, which is the meteorological standard. Combined with the study of dust deposits in the coral reefs of Cape Verde, the wind data were used to estimate fluctuations in dust emissions since the 1850s. The results obtained reproduce several well-known events, showing that the North Atlantic Oscillation caused important dust emissions in the years 1910-1940, as did the Sahel drought of the 1980s. Moreover, the researchers showed that in North Africa, the regions where the Harmattan is preferentially accelerated are located over dust source regions. According to them, the meteorological phenomena mentioned above are able to modify the intensity of the Harmattan, and hence of Saharan dust emissions, over time scales ranging from a few days to several years.

Since this method successfully reproduced past events, it was then applied to future climate projections with the aim of establishing trends until the end of the twenty-first century. The method predicts a decrease in dust generation. Although this could have beneficial effects on the health of human populations, it might also increase warming of the tropical North Atlantic, making it more suitable for hurricane formation and growth.