Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:
81 – 73 Lihue, Kauai
84 – 71 Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 61 Molokai AP
85 – 59 Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 63 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday evening:
0.38 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.20 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.01 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.00 Maui
0.00 Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:
17 Mana, Kauai – SE
15 Kuaokala, Oahu – NW
20 Molokai – ESE
08 Lanai – NW
35 Kahoolawe – ENE
25 Kapalua, Maui – NNE
27 Pali 2, Big Island – ENE
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
The Pacific storm track is riding along in the Prevailing
Westerlies…well north of the Hawaiian Islands
Scattered low clouds in our area…with the next
cold front approaching to the northwest…and
thunderstorms far south of the islands
Clear to partly cloudy areas…which are the remnants
of a recent cold front for the most part
A few showers, mostly offshore…although not exclusively
looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channels from Maui
County down through the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Trade winds, although lighter over the Kauai end of the state…then increasingly strong trade winds again by the holiday on Monday for several days. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a high pressure system to our northeast, moving away towards California, with a trailing ridge to the north. In addition, there are several low pressure systems far to the northeast through northwest of Hawaii. One of these low pressure systems, to the north, has an associated long cold front stretching southwest into the tropics. While still quite a distance to our northwest…it will be approaching the state over the next few days. The forecast shows trade winds continuing, faltering a bit over Kauai and Oahu Saturday into Sunday. Thereafter, as this cold front arrives Monday into Tuesday, gusty northeasterly winds will move over the state for a few days…becoming locally rather strong and gusty.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast
An old cold front continues falling apart, which will contribute a few showers along our windward sides…especially over Maui County and the Big Island. Meanwhile, the leeward sides, and especially the beaches, should have nice weather Saturday, with mostly dry conditions, and plenty of warm sunshine beaming down during the days into the weekend. Meanwhile, as we push into the holiday on Monday into Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move into the state, which should bring showers and stronger winds our way into the middle of next week. These trade winds will carry showers into our windward sides, with the models now pointing out drier than normal conditions returning to the state as we get into the second part of next week…at least through the work week.
Here in Maui County…It’s mostly clear early this Friday morning, with a few minor clouds riding along in the trade winds…over the windward coasts and slopes. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 45.1F degrees well before sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 62 degrees down in Kahului, 70 out in Hana…and 50 atop the Haleakala Crater. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 70 degrees, 62 at Lanai City, with 67 at the Molokai airport. / The temperature has risen to 54.5 degrees at 850am, with 63 down at sea level in Kahului at the same time.
– We’re into the mid-afternoon, with sunny to partly cloudy skies…with the most compact clouds over and around the mountains and along the windward sides.
– Not long before sunset, clear to partly cloudy, with some cloudy areas around the edges.
I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located 396 NM east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia, with sustained winds of 109 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active in the Coral Sea, located 307 NM west of Noumea, New Caledonia, with sustained winds of 58 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) is now active in the South Indian Ocean, located 160 NM west of Cocos Island, Australia, with sustained winds of 40 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Are we impacting the future of our planet for thousands of years? – The Earth may suffer irreversible damage that could last tens of thousands of years because of the rate humans are emitting carbon into the atmosphere.
In a new study in Nature Climate Change, researchers at Oregon State University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and collaborating institutions found that the longer-term impacts of climate change go well past the 21st century.
“Much of the carbon we are putting in the air from burning fossil fuels will stay there for thousands of years — and some of it will be there for more than 100,000 years,” said Peter Clark, an Oregon State University paleoclimatologist and lead author on the article. “People need to understand that the effects of climate change on the planet won’t go away, at least not for thousands of generations.”
LLNL’s Benjamin Santer said the focus on climate change at the end of the 21st century needs to be shifted toward a much longer-term perspective.
“Our greenhouse gas emissions today produce climate-change commitments for many centuries to come,” Santer said. “Today’s actions — or inaction — will have long-term climate consequences for generations of our descendants.”
“The long-term view sends the chilling message what the real risks and consequences are of the fossil fuel era,” said Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern in Switzerland, who is past co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Working Group I. “It will commit us to massive adaptation efforts so that for many, dislocation and migration becomes the only option.”
Sea level rise is one of the most noticeable impacts of global warming, yet its effects are just starting to be seen, according to the article. The latest IPCC report calls for sea level rise of one meter by the year 2100. In the new study, however, the authors look at four different sea level-rise scenarios based on different rates of warming, from a low rate that could only be reached with massive efforts to eliminate fossil fuel use over the next few decades, to a higher rate based on the consumption of half the remaining fossil fuels over the next few centuries.
With just two degrees (Celsius) warming in the low-end scenario, sea levels are predicted to eventually rise by about 25 meters. With seven degrees warming at the high-end scenario, the rise is estimated at 50 meters, although over a period of several centuries to millennia.
“It takes sea level rise a very long time to react — on the order of centuries,” Clark said. “It’s like heating a pot of water on the stove; it doesn’t boil for quite a while after the heat is turned on — but then it will continue to boil as long as the heat persists. Once carbon is in the atmosphere, it will stay there for tens or hundreds of thousands of years, and the warming, as well as the higher seas, will remain.”
For the low-end scenario, an estimated 122 countries have at least 10 percent of their population in areas that will be directly affected by rising sea levels, and some 1.3 billion people — or 20 percent of the global population — may be directly affected. The impacts become greater as the warming and sea level rise increases.
The new paper makes the fundamental point that considering the long time scales of the carbon cycle and of climate change means that reducing emissions slightly or even significantly is not sufficient. “To spare future generations from the worst impacts of climate change, the target must be zero — or even negative carbon emissions — as soon as possible,” Clark said.
The researchers’ work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the German Science Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation
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