Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

82 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 62  Molokai
86 – 63  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 71  Kailua Kona AP
85 – 69  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:

0.12  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.04  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.01  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Hana AP, Maui
0.05  Glenwood, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

14  Mana, Kauai – NW
14  Kii, Oahu – SE
24  Molokai – E 
15  Lanai – SW
18  Kahoolawe – NE
14  Kaupo Gap, Maui – SE
22  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
The Pacific storm track remains well north of our islands…
with associated cold fronts staying north of us as well

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Active thunderstorms well offshore southwest through
south of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Off and on increasing low clouds…mixed with mostly clear skies


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Just a few showers falling locally…otherwise continued dry
looping radar image


High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu and
Molokai through Wednesday / north shore of Maui
same time period

Small Craft Advisory…for large northwest swells creating
hazardous seas, along with increasing trade winds – Kauai to
Maui through Wednesday


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Lighter southeasterly breezes remain in place…with trade winds returning mid-week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a moderately strong high pressure system far to our east-northeast…with its associated ridge running west to near Kauai. At the same time, we find numerous storm and gale low pressure systems far to our north. The trade winds are easing up in strength, and veering to the southeast now…which will bring volcanic haze our way locally. The models show the trade winds picking up again Wednesday through Thursday. An approaching cold front will tamp down our trade winds again Friday into the weekend, potentially with southeast breezes bringing more vog…then strengthening trade winds returning again early next week.

A few showers will fall locally…although most areas will remain generally dry. This drier than normal weather pattern is being supported by a ridge of high pressure aloft over the state…in addition to surface ridge near the Kauai side of the island chain. The combination of these two ridges will work together to keep stable and relatively dry conditions in place over us. Meanwhile, the lighter winds, and the daytime heating of the islands, will prompt increasing clouds during the days into Tuesday…along with cool early morning temperatures. We see a cold front moving by north of the state, although it won’t reach the Hawaiian Islands…as has been the case with these fronts over the last several weeks. The long range models are suggesting that our drier than normal weather conditions will extend through this work week. A new cold front may approach the islands during the upcoming weekend, and may finally bring a few more showers our way then…then again maybe not.

Here on Maui…It’s mostly clear to partly cloudy across the island early this Monday morning. Here in upcountry Kula, it’s calm and clear…with an air temperature of 48.2F degrees at my place here in upcountry Kula. This temperature is in contrast to the 63 degree reading down near sea level in Kahului, with a warmer 77 in Hana, 63 at Maalaea Bay…and 54 in Kaupo Gap.

– We’re into the middle of the afternoon, and as previously thought, clouds have formed and gathered quite extensively over the island. In addition, as I glance down into the central valley, it looks like some moderately thick volcanic haze has snuck in over the island. The clouds over my Kula weather tower look a little menacing, although with the atmosphere remaining so dry and stable…no water is falling from their bases.

– We’re pushing into the early evening now, although still a bit before sunset. The volcanic haze (vog) has thickened up since earlier today. It’s definitely a presence now, and will likely remain in place through much if not all of Tuesday. As the trade winds return early Wednesday, they should be able to sweep the vog away, at least for a few days. As the winds take on a southeasterly orientation again this coming weekend…the vog may come right back over us again then. / I want to let you know I very recently got invited to take a trip to the Hudson River Valley of New York, then on to Germany…ending up in the Swiss Alps for several days too. I’ll be leaving this coming Wednesday, and coming back December 22nd, I’ll have more to say about this again before I depart Wednesday afternoon. By the way, you will continue to have the latest weather forecasts for the entire state…updated four times each day in my absence.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Global food system faces threats from climate change – Climate change is likely to have far-reaching impacts on food security throughout the world, especially for the poor and those living in tropical regions, according to a new international report that includes three co-authors from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The report, issued today at the Paris 2015 United Nations Climate Conference (also known as COP21) warns that warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns can threaten food production, disrupt transportation systems, and degrade food safety, among other impacts. As a result, international progress in the past few decades toward improving food security will be difficult to maintain.

The report, Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System, provides an overview of recent research in climate change and agriculture. Led by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and published under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, it includes contributors from 19 federal, academic, nongovernmental, intergovernmental, and private organizations in the United States, Argentina, Britain, and Thailand.

“If society continues on a path of high emissions of greenhouse gases, there is no way around the fact that climate change is going to be a primary challenge for producing and distributing food,” said NCAR scientist Claudia Tebaldi, a co-author of the report. “If society lowers emissions, climate change will still be a stressor on food security, but other factors such as socioeconomic conditions could be more critical.”

Two other NCAR scientists—Caspar Ammann and Brian O’Neill—also served as co-authors. The report was produced as part of a collaboration between NCAR, the Department of Agriculture, and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages NCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation.

The report focuses on identifying climate change impacts on global food security through 2100. The authors emphasize that food security – the ability of people to obtain and use sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food – will be affected by several factors in addition to climate change, such as technological advances, increases in population, the distribution of wealth, and changes in eating habits.

“Changes in society and changes in climate will both be critically important to food security in the coming decades,” O’Neill said. “This means we have to do a better job of anticipating possible changes in income, governance, inequality, and other factors, and a better job understanding how they interact with food security and climate change.”

Among the report’s key findings:

  • The impact of climate change on crop and livestock productivity is projected to be larger for tropical and subtropical regions such as Africa and South Asia, although there will be regional variations. Wealthy populations and temperate regions are less at risk, and some high-latitude regions may temporarily experience productivity increases, in part because of warmer temperatures and more precipitation. However, if society continues to emit more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that cause climate change, even those regions will face damaging outcomes during the second half of this century.

 

  • Climate change has important implications for food producers and consumers in the United States. The nation is likely to experience changes in the types and cost of food available for import. It can also expect to face increased demand for agricultural exports from regions coping with production difficulties.

 

  • Climate change risks extend beyond agricultural production to critical elements of global food systems, including processing, storage, transportation, and consumption. For example, warmer temperatures can have a negative impact on food storage and increase food safety risks; higher sea levels and changes to lake and river levels can impede transportation.

 

  • Risks to food security will increase with a higher magnitude and faster rate of climate change. In a worst-case scenario based on high greenhouse gas concentrations, high population growth, and low economic growth, the number of people at risk of undernourishment would increase by as much as 175 million by 2080 over today’s level of about 805 million. This would reverse recent gains, as the number of people at risk of undernourishment has dropped from about 1 billion since the early 1990s.

 

  • Society can take steps to reduce the food system’s vulnerability to climate change, ranging from more advanced growing methods to cold storage, improvements in transportation infrastructure, and other strategies. Such adaptations, however, may be difficult to implement in some regions due to availability of water, soil nutrients, infrastructure, funding, or other factors.