Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

81 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
81 – 74  Molokai
84 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 70  Kailua Kona AP
85 – 67  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:

1.01  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.15  St. Stephens, Oahu
0.04  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Kahakuloa, Maui
0.44  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

15  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
27  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
25  Molokai – ENE
27  Lanai – NE
33  Kahoolawe – NE
27  Kahului AP, Maui – NNE
23  Pali 2, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Cold front moving by north of Hawaii…with
a huge swath of tropical moisture moving out
of the tropics northeast into Mexico and Texas

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms well offshore southwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to cloudy…with low clouds locally, heading
primarily towards windward Kauai and Oahu


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Just a few showers locally – looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will be locally strong and gusty trades. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find moderately strong high pressure systems to the northeast of the state. At the same time, we find low pressure systems far to our north…with a comma shaped cold front draping southwest from its center. This cold front will approach the state over the next day or so, weakening the high pressure ridge to our north slightly, with marginally softer trade wind speeds the result. Thereafter, we’ll find some strengthening by mid-week into Thursday…followed by another slight easing of our trades again later Friday into the weekend.

Just a few showers along our windward sides…leeward areas will remain generally dry. We’ll find generally dry weather continuing over the next several days, especially along our leeward sections…with occasional passing showers over the windward sides. The forecast shows a cold front migrating by offshore to our north over the next few days. This front however will bring no rain our way, with generally fair weather prevailing. Looking further out to Friday and the weekend, yet another weak cold front may approach the state, perhaps sliding by to our north again…with little influence other than softening our trade winds again then.

Here on Maui…It’s clear to partly cloudy across the island early this morning before sunrise. Here in upcountry Kula, it’s calm and clear…after another completely dry night.

– Early afternoon, clear to partly cloudy most areas…cloudy over the mountain slopes as usual. The trade winds are still kicking up their heels in our exposed areas, with the strongest wind gusts reported at 29 mph in gusts…at both the Kahului AP and Kaupo Gap.

– As we head into the sunset hour, skies continue to be clear to partly cloudy, with hardly a shower…even along our windward coasts and slopes. Today was a good example of near perfect late autumn weather down here in the tropics. I see little change over the next several days, and perhaps right on through the rest of this week. At 545pm, and as skies clear overhead, our air temperature here at my Kula weather tower is slipping, and was reading 63.6 degrees, while at the same time the Kahului airport was showing 78 degrees…with a cool 50 degrees atop the Haleakala Crater.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  Why the Paris Climate Summit pledges are so important – More than 190 countries are meeting in Paris next week to create a durable framework for addressing climate change and to implement a process to reduce greenhouse gases over time. A key part of this agreement would be the pledges made by individual countries to reduce their emissions.

A study published in Science today shows that if implemented and followed by measures of equal or greater ambition, the Paris pledges have the potential to reduce the probability of the highest levels of warming, and increase the probability of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

In the lead up to the Paris meetings, countries have announced the contributions that they are willing to make to combat global climate change, based on their own national circumstances. These Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs, take many different forms and extend through 2025 or 2030.

Examples of these commitments include the United States’ vow to reduce emissions in 2025 by 26-28 percent of 2005 levels and China’s pledge to peak emissions by 2030 and increase its share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent. In the study, the scientists tallied up these INDCs and simulated the range of temperature outcomes the resulting emissions would bring in 2100 under different assumptions about possible emissions reductions beyond 2030.

“We wanted to know how the commitments would play out from a risk management perspective,” said economist Allen Fawcett of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the lead author of the study. “We analyzed not only what the commitments would achieve over the next ten to fifteen years, but also how they might lay a foundation for the future.”

Although many researchers have focused on the importance of the 2 degree limit, Fawcett and colleagues assessed uncertainty in the climate change system from an overall risk management perspective. They analyzed the full range of temperatures the INDCs might attain, and determined the odds for achieving each of those temperatures. To determine odds, they modeled the future climate hundreds of times to find the range of temperatures these various conditions produce.

“It’s not just about 2 degrees,” said Gokul Iyer, the study’s lead scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration between the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland. “It is also important to understand what the INDCs imply for the worst levels of climate change.”

In the study, the scientists compare the Paris commitments to a world in which countries don’t act at all or start reducing greenhouse gas emissions only in 2030.

The team found that if countries do nothing to reduce emissions, the earth has almost no chance of staying under the 2 degree limit, and it is likely that the temperature increase would exceed 4 degrees. They went on to show that the INDCs and the future abatement enabled by Paris introduce a chance of meeting the 2 degree target, and greatly reduce the chance that warming exceeds 4 degrees. The extent to which the odds are improved depends on how much emissions limits are tightened in future pledges after 2030.