Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

84 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 74  Molokai
88 – 69  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 78  Kailua Kona AP
86 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Thursday evening:

0.11  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.40  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
1.04  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.73  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.67  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

18  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
17  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
20  Molokai – NE
30  Lanai – NE
23  Kahoolawe – NE
27  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE 
27  Pali 2, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Category 3 Major Hurricane 19E (Olaf) remains active
to the east-southeast of Hawaii / 120 mph winds

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view


http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP192015W.gif
All of the weather models keep Hurricane Olaf going north and then
northeast, offshore to the east of Hawaii…with no current threat –
other than having a dangerous high surf event along the
east facing shores of islands into the weekend

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/19E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Close up view of Hurricane Olaf…with its eye

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Dynamic Hurricane Olaf…well to the southeast, with
a cold front to the north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy, just a few showers locally…mostly
along the windward sides – northwest fringe of hurricane
Olaf to the southeast and east of the Big Island


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Just a few showers – looping radar image


Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around the Big Island

High Surf Warning…east shores of the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Maui – south
shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the
Big Island

             SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE OLAF WILL PRODUCE
          LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF ALONG
      EAST FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THIS WEEKEND




 
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~






Our trade winds will be light to moderately strong…gradually weakening into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find our primary high pressure system far to the northeast of the state. At the same time, we find a gale low pressure systems to our north and northwest. There are associated cold fronts located well north and northwest of the state as well. Our trade wind weather pattern will continue through the weekend, with our local winds becoming lighter going forward. As we push into the new week ahead, our winds will become breezy from the north to northeast…bringing somewhat cooler air into the state.




We’ll find just a few showers falling over the islands, mostly along our windward sides…with relatively dry weather through the rest of the week. The leeward sides will remain nice and sunny to partly cloudy, and warm during the days. The windward sides will find those occasional passing showers, most generously during the night and early morning hours…right on into the upcoming weekend. Looking further further ahead, as we get into the first couple of days of next week, we’ll see a weak cold front arriving, ushering in cooler north to northeasterly breezes in its wake for a day or two…with some passing showers. The latest models suggest we may see another cold front approaching the state later next week.




>>> Here’s a short National Geographic Video that I found entertaining




 


– The information below is from NOAA, thanks to Kevin Kodama of the NWS Forecast office in Honolulu, HI


Summary of the dry season (May through September 2015)


Statewide: Most locations had near to above average rainfall


o Hawaii’s drought completely eliminated from the U.S. Drought Monitor map

o Hawaii is drought free for the first time since April 15, 2008


Wettest dry season in the last 30 years


o 2014 dry season was the wettest in 30 years and this year easily beat it

o Wettest August and September on record at many locations


Some monthly totals more than doubled the previous records


Above average tropical cyclone activity near Hawaii and above average sea surface temperatures have helped increase rainfall


o Tropical cyclones bring associated rain over the islands and draw up moisture from the deep tropics

o Warm ocean temperatures nearby provide additional moisture for rainfall production


Outlook for the wet season (October 2015 through April 2016)


NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): El Nino is here and will continue


o Expected to remain in place through spring 2016

o Strongest El Nino since the 1997-1998 event and may end up being the strongest in over 50 years


Probabilities favor below average rainfall through spring 2016


o Significantly below average totals, especially from December through April


Statewide impact


Many areas may see less than 50 percent of average rainfall

 Drought development starting in late 2015 and expected to worsen during early 2016


o Summer rainfall has helped delay some impacts

o Sectors sensitive to short term rainfall deficits may start seeing initial effects by the end of 2015


Agriculture: Pasture degradation


Water supply: Catchment systems will run low


o Brush fires: Earlier start to the 2016 fire season

o Widespread moderate drought with embedded areas of severe drought expected by the end of April



Isolated extreme drought possible



Here on Maui…It’s 535am Thursday morning with clear to partly cloudy skies. / Now it’s 1045am, and we have yet another gorgeous day on our hands. The daily battle between sunshine and clouds…is easily being won by the sunshine today!




– Now at 255pm, what I’d call mid-afternoon…it’s still so sunny! There are just a few puffy clouds around, although sunshine is the dominant weather feature today here on Maui.


– It’s now 555pm, just about sunset, and overall, this was yet another near perfect autumn day! There was lots of sunshine, not many clouds, hardly any showers if any…and the trade winds weren’t too strong or too light. I anticipate that Friday, and probably right through the upcoming weekend will be similar.


I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.





World-wide tropical cyclone activity:




>>>  Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones




Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean


>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones




>>> Gulf of Mexico:  There are no active tropical cyclones 


Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico 


Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)


>>> Eastern Pacific: 




Hurricane 20E (Patricia) remains active in the northeast Pacific Ocean, located 125 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, with sustained winds of 200 mph – which qualifies as a very unusual category 5 hurricane…the first to ever hit the Mexican coast at this strength! Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


1.)  An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves slowly toward the east-northeast or northeast.


* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent 

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent


Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:




Hurricane 19E (Olaf) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located 640 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with sustained winds of 120 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


>>>  Northwest Pacific Ocean: 





Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean, located 643 NM north of Saipan, with sustained winds of 93 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing


Tropical Depression 26W is now dissipating in the northwest Pacific Ocean, located 759 NM northwest of Wake Island, FSM, with sustained winds of 30 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system – Final Warning






>>> South Pacific Ocean: 







>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting: How will rising sea levels impact the Phillippines? – More than 167,000 hectares of coastland — about 0.6% of the country’s total area — are projected to go underwater in the Philippines, especially in low-lying island communities, according to research by the University of the Philippines.


Low-lying countries with an abundance of coastlines are at significant risk from rising sea levels resulting from global warming. According to data by the World Meteorological Organisation, the water levels around the Philippines are rising at a rate almost three times the global average due partly to the influence of the trade winds pushing ocean currents.


On average, sea levels around the world rise 3.1 centimetres every ten years. Water levels in the Philippines are projected to rise between 7.6 and 10.2 centimetres each decade.


The Philippines government has been forced to take this into consideration. A number of governmental and nongovernmental organizations have sprung up in recent years to address the issue. The Department of Environment and National Resources has its own climate change office, which has set up various programs to educate communities in high-risk areas. One program, for example, teaches communities to adapt to rising sea levels by ensuring that public spaces, such as community halls and schools, are not built near the coast.


But soon, adaptation on a local level won’t be enough. Policy makers need to convince governments to curb their emissions on a global level.


The earth’s oceans were a hot topic at the Common Future Under Climate Change conference held in Paris in July.


According to J.P. Gattuso, senior research scientist at France’s CNRS Laboratory of Oceanography in Villefranche, the discussion of warming oceans rarely featured in previous climate change discussions. “The ocean moderates climate change at the cost of profound alterations to its physics, chemistry, ecology and services,” says Gattuso. “However, despite the ocean’s critical role in global ecosystem processes and services, international climate negotiations have only minimally touched on ocean impacts. Any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts will be incomplete and inadequate,” he says. But this is changing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report 2013 indicated that if emissions continue on their current trend, we could face a “significant increase” in sea level extremes with risks of coastal flooding.


A new study, published in October 2014 in Environmental Research Letters, paints an even scarier picture. Sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimetres (higher than the average person) by the end of the century. Low-lying coastal communities, such as in Bangladesh, could be most at risk.


Research in the journal Science, which was released during the Climate Change conference in July, also emphasizes the importance that research addresses the effects of rising sea levels. In the Science study, researchers compared the fate of the oceans under two scenarios: one a business-as-usual approach and the other involving drastic cuts in emissions.


Their analyses showed that business-as-usual would have an enormous and effectively irreversible impact on ocean ecosystems and the services they provide, such as fisheries, by 2100.


“Our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Studies such as these that improve our understanding of magnitudes of global sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet loss are critical for society,” states Anders Carlson, co-author and associate professor of geology and geophysics at Oregon State University in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report 2013.