Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the minimums Wednesday:

84 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu – broke the record high Wednesday of 90…set in 1977
86 – 73  Molokai
89 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 76  Kailua Kona AP
85 – 71  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Wednesday evening:

0.10  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.43  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.08  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.39  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.43  Hilo AP, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Wednesday evening:

22  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
24  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
21  Molokai – ENE
25  Lanai – NE
36  Kahoolawe – ENE
23  Kahului AP, Maui – NNE
24  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Major Category 3 Hurricane 19E (Olaf) remains
active to the southeast of Hawaii / 115 mph winds

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view


http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP192015W.gif
All of the weather models turn Hurricane Olaf north and then
northeast, offshore to the east of Hawaii…with no current threat –
however we will be having a dangerous high surf event along the
east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/19E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Close up view of Hurricane Olaf…with its faint eye

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Dynamic Hurricane Olaf…well to the southeast, with
thunderstorms far south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to cloudy, showers locally…
mostly along the windward sides


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers falling over the islands locally
looping radar image


Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around the Big Island

High Surf Warning…east shores of the Big Island –
High Surf Advisory…east shores of Maui


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our trade winds will be light to moderately strong, locally a bit more gusty in the near term…continuing through the rest of the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems to the west and northeast of the state. At the same time, we find a gale low pressure systems to our northwest and north. There are associated cold fronts located north and northwest of the state. Our trade wind weather pattern will continue through the weekend, with our local winds becoming slightly lighter Thursday onward.

We’ll find showers falling over the islands, mostly along our windward sides today…with drier weather starting Thursday. The leeward sides will remain nice and sunny to partly cloudy, and warm during the days. The windward sides will find those occasional passing showers, most generously during the night and early morning hours…otherwise quite pleasant too. During the second half of the week, we’ll find generally favorable weather conditions prevailing. Looking further ahead, as we get into the first couple of days of next week, we may see a cold front arriving, ushering in slightly cooler northerly breezes in their wake…in addition to some increased showers then as well.

>>> Here’s a short National Geographic Video that I found special

 

– The information below is from NOAA, thanks to Kevin Kodama of the NWS Forecast office in Honolulu, HI

Summary of the dry season (May through September 2015)

Statewide: Most locations had near to above average rainfall

o Hawaii’s drought completely eliminated from the U.S. Drought Monitor map
o Hawaii is drought free for the first time since April 15, 2008

Wettest dry season in the last 30 years

o 2014 dry season was the wettest in 30 years and this year easily beat it
o Wettest August and September on record at many locations

Some monthly totals more than doubled the previous records

Above average tropical cyclone activity near Hawaii and above average sea
surface temperatures have helped increase rainfall

o Tropical cyclones bring associated rain over the islands and draw up moisture from the deep tropics
o Warm ocean temperatures nearby provide additional moisture for rainfall production

Outlook for the wet season (October 2015 through April 2016)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): El Nino is here and will continue

o Expected to remain in place through spring 2016
o Strongest El Nino since the 1997-1998 event and may end up being the strongest in over 50 years

Probabilities favor below average rainfall through spring 2016

o Significantly below average totals, especially from December through April

Statewide impact

Many areas may see less than 50 percent of average rainfall
Drought development starting in late 2015 and expected to worsen during early 2016

o Summer rainfall has helped delay some impacts
o Sectors sensitive to short term rainfall deficits may start seeing initial effects by the end of 2015

Agriculture: Pasture degradation

Water supply: Catchment systems will run low

o Brush fires: Earlier start to the 2016 fire season
o Widespread moderate drought with embedded areas of severe drought expected by the end of April

Isolated extreme drought possible


Here on Maui…It’s 545am Wednesday morning with clear to partly cloudy skies…with a few showers falling locally along our windward sides.

– Late afternoon, cloudy with a heavy downpour falling at 425pm…77 degrees here in Kula, while it looks sunny to partly cloudy down in Kahului, with an air temperature of 84 in contrast.

– Early evening, the rain stopped, and the sun came partially out here in Kula…and now its just about sunset at near 6pm

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 20E (Patricia) remains active in the northeast Pacific Ocean, located 285 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, with sustained winds of 100 mph. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

1.)  An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south or south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Friday or over the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly toward the east-northeast or northeast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane 19E (Olaf) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located 720 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with sustained winds of 115 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 


Typhoon 25W (Champi) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean, located 75 NM east-southeast of Iwo To, Japan, with sustained winds of 115 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 26W is now active in the northwest Pacific Ocean, located 745 NM northwest of Wake Island, with sustained winds of 30 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the GEM computer model is showing 

>>> South Pacific Ocean:


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  How will rising sea levels impact the Phillippines? –  More than 167,000 hectares of coastland — about 0.6% of the country’s total area — are projected to go underwater in the Philippines, especially in low-lying island communities, according to research by the University of the Philippines.

Low-lying countries with an abundance of coastlines are at significant risk from rising sea levels resulting from global warming. According to data by the World Meteorological Organisation, the water levels around the Philippines are rising at a rate almost three times the global average due partly to the influence of the trade winds pushing ocean currents.

On average, sea levels around the world rise 3.1 centimetres every ten years. Water levels in the Philippines are projected to rise between 7.6 and 10.2 centimetres each decade.

The Philippines government has been forced to take this into consideration. A number of governmental and nongovernmental organizations have sprung up in recent years to address the issue. The Department of Environment and National Resources has its own climate change office, which has set up various programs to educate communities in high-risk areas. One program, for example, teaches communities to adapt to rising sea levels by ensuring that public spaces, such as community halls and schools, are not built near the coast.

But soon, adaptation on a local level won’t be enough. Policy makers need to convince governments to curb their emissions on a global level.

The earth’s oceans were a hot topic at the Common Future Under Climate Change conference held in Paris in July.

According to J.P. Gattuso, senior research scientist at France’s CNRS Laboratory of Oceanography in Villefranche, the discussion of warming oceans rarely featured in previous climate change discussions. “The ocean moderates climate change at the cost of profound alterations to its physics, chemistry, ecology and services,” says Gattuso. “However, despite the ocean’s critical role in global ecosystem processes and services, international climate negotiations have only minimally touched on ocean impacts. Any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts will be incomplete and inadequate,” he says. But this is changing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report 2013 indicated that if emissions continue on their current trend, we could face a “significant increase” in sea level extremes with risks of coastal flooding.

A new study, published in October 2014 in Environmental Research Letters, paints an even scarier picture. Sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimetres (higher than the average person) by the end of the century. Low-lying coastal communities, such as in Bangladesh, could be most at risk.

Research in the journal Science, which was released during the Climate Change conference in July, also emphasizes the importance that research addresses the effects of rising sea levels. In the Science study, researchers compared the fate of the oceans under two scenarios: one a business-as-usual approach and the other involving drastic cuts in emissions.

Their analyses showed that business-as-usual would have an enormous and effectively irreversible impact on ocean ecosystems and the services they provide, such as fisheries, by 2100.

“Our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Studies such as these that improve our understanding of magnitudes of global sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet loss are critical for society,” states Anders Carlson, co-author and associate professor of geology and geophysics at Oregon State University in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report 2013.