Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

85 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 75  Molokai
92 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui – the record for Thursday was 94…set back in 2005
90 – 77  Kailua Kona
89 – 73  Hilo, Hawaii 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

0.81  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
3.09  Aloha Tower, Oahu
1.35  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.88  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.49  Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.30  Pohakuloa Kipuka Alala, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

24  Barking Sands, Kauai – SE
18  Palehua, Oahu – E
12  Molokai – SE
08  Lanai – SE
22  Kahoolawe – NE
13  Hana, Maui – SE
25  Kealakomo, Big Island – E

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Tropical Storm Ignacio remains active over the ocean far to the
north of Hawaii, with Hurricane Jimena to the east…while
Tropical Storm Kevin remains active towards Mexico, and
Typhoon Kilo is located far to the west-northwest of Hawaii

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP132015W.gif
Hurricane Jimena is well east of Hawaii…posing no
threat to the Hawaiian Islands

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Hurricane Jimena is losing a bit of its classic signature

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical Storm Ignacio moves away from the islands,
Hurricane Jimena and Typhoon Kilo…are well
east and west

Here’s a wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
these tropical cyclones


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around…some heavy over the ocean
 looping radar image

 

High Surf Warning…east shores of all the islands – until
6pm Saturday / High Surf Advisory all south shores from
6am Friday through 6pm Saturday

Small Craft Advisory…Big Island windward and southeast
waters, northwest Kauai waters, windward waters, Oahu
windward waters, and the Kaiwi Channel, Pailolo Channel,
Maui County windward waters…and Alenuihaha Channel

Flash Flood Watch…for all islands – through 6pm today

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds are coming in from the southwest through southeast…keeping muggy weather over us into Friday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system far to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we see Tropical cyclones far to our west, closer to our north-northwest, and further to the east…and finally offshore from Mexico. Our winds continue to come to us from the uncommon southerly direction, keeping sultry conditions in place. We should see the return of light trade winds later Friday into the weekend, which will give a slight relief from the hot and humid conditions. As we move into early next week, we will see the trade winds faltering again, as Jimena’s presence over the ocean to the northeast interrupts the wind flow then. This in turn will bring back very muggy conditions for many days.

Spotty heavy showers will continue Friday…along with a possible thunderstorm to.  As Ignacio continues to move further away, we’ll see showers continuing, as tropical moisture lingers in our island vicinity. As the winds remain quite light during this time, we will see heavy downpours over the interior sections of the islands during the afternoon and early evening hours…triggered by daytime heating of the islands. Showers will likely form over the warm ocean during the night and early mornings too, and spread onto the islands locally. This unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend. As the light trade winds try and get going later Friday into the weekend, we may see the return of a few windward showers…although with still those afternoon downpours locally. As the trades falter again early next week, thanks to hurricane Jimena, we’ll get right back into a convective weather pattern, with locally heavy afternoon showers in the upcountry areas.

Tropical Storm 12E (Ignacio) continues to move away from Hawaii…posing no threat. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. Based on the most recent advisory, Ignacio has 70 mph winds near the center, and has dropped down from its brief return to the hurricane level. The forecast has this storm remaining at about 75 mph for the next 12 hours or so. As it migrates further north, it will pass over the progressively colder waters of the north Pacific Ocean…and become a post-tropical cyclone within two days. 

Incoming east swell from hurricane Jimena continued to require a high surf warning for east-facing shores of most islands. East-shore surf will remain near warning levels through the weekend, and likely into early next week.

A small craft advisory also remained in effect through this afternoon for hazardous seas produced by the swells from Ignacio and Jimena. Winds are expected to remain below the advisory threshold this week.

Meanwhile, Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active well to our east. This hurricane is maintaining sustained winds of near 85 mph as of the latest advisory. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. This is still a strong hurricane, although will be gradually losing power as it heads northwestward. There continues to be a chance that hurricane Jemina will stay away from our area, well to the east, northeast and then north of the state later this weekend into next week. Looking at the latest track map, it looks like this tropical cyclone will take a turn westward…and hopefully remain well away from our islands

Here on Maui…It’s 555am Thursday morning, and it’s mostly clear towards the west, and partly to mostly cloudy to the east. The clouds to our east, have flickering lightning this morning, lots of it. However, at least from here in Kula, I can only hear a very faint thunder far in the distance…once in a while. There is a flood advisory over on the windward side of east Maui, so we know it’s getting very wet out near Hana, Nahiku, and Kipahulu. In addition, there’s a flash flood watch for the entire state today, which suggests that the atmosphere is very unstable and moist…and of course shower prone with thunderstorms here and there. / At 605am, around sunrise, the anvil top of a huge thunderstorm offshore to the south, lit up an incredible pink color! / I just got back from my fast walk, and while I was out there, I was amazed at how many towering cumulus clouds, and thunderstorms there are in our skies this morning! I’ve live here in the islands for 40 years, and this is one of the most spectacular days that I can remember for thunderstorm displays…they’re in almost every direction. This will be an usual day, especially as the daytime heating of the island kicks in, which is happening now, very likely triggering some heavy duty, flooding downpours in some areas. Already there is some big flooding issues over on the windward side of east Maui at the moment. / A little while later, and those early morning puffers have diminished some, although there are still lots of them mostly centered to the north, northeast and east. / Now at 1015am the flood advisory for Maui has been discontinued, looking around, the thunderstorm activity has rather quickly dissipated, although I can still see one or two around the edges. We’ll see what happens this afternoon, as the sunshine continues to bake the island. / Just like bread rises when baked, the air rises when heated from below, as well as sea breezes begin to swagger up hill, all of which prompts clouds to grow taller…and raindrops to fall from their moisture laden bellies…time will tell. / At 1110am, glancing down the mountain from here in Kula, it’s looking like moderately thick volcanic haze (vog) has returned…it’s good an voggy all the sudden.

– Alright here we go into the early afternoon period, under totally cloudy skies. I can’t see out anymore, as the clouds have closed in over me here in Kula. At the same time, we just had our first brief shower of the day, one of those big drops kind that don’t last long, followed by thick fog! Why an exclamation mark? I’m not sure, it just snuck by my good reasoning…my only excuse is that I get excited by the weather I suppose. Oh, did I mention that I’m hearing thunder, closer now, which of course means there’s lightning around too.

– We’re into the early evening hours now, and I can’t see down the mountain here in Kula…as its cloudy and foggy too. There have been several little showers today, although there was no downpour, like we’ve seen up here over the past several afternoons. The air temperature is right around 70 degrees at 535pm, which is more comfortable than it has been lately. At about the same time, down at the Kahului airport, it was 83 degrees. The fog just cleared up slightly, enough so that I can see what looks like pretty thick volcanic haze (vog) in our skies.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 06L (Fred) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean, with sustained winds of 35 mph…and is located about 1275 miles southwest of the Azores. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.)   A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles off the west coast of Africa is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands tonight and Saturday. This system continues to show signs of organization and has the potential for some development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 14E (Kevin) remains active in the northeast Pacific, with sustained winds of 60 mph…and is located about 360 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.)  Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the next several days as the low moves northwestward and gradually merges with another disturbance to its west.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm Ignacio remains active in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 75 mph…and is located about 860 miles north-northwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active now in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 85 mph…and is located about 650 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 03C (Kilo) remains active now in the western Pacific, with sustained winds of 86 mph, and is located about 565 miles east-northeast of Wake Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate Change will Cost Trillions – The economic ramifications of continuing the 20th century’s economic model, where unsustainable extraction and pollution conveys competitive advantage, are coming into sharp focus. Citigroup now projects a staggering $72 trillion global cost tied to man-made climate change during the 21st century. This is an almost incomprehensible scale of economic damage that is equal to losing four years of the United States’ entire gross domestic product.

The agriculture and food manufacturing industries also confront similar staggering economic consequences. The industrial fast food complex is directly tied to a global obesity and diabetes epidemic that now costs $2 trillion annually, or almost 3 percent of world gross domestic product. If this cost remains constant it will represent $170 trillion in economic cost through the rest of the 21st century.

These staggering economic costs don’t even take into account human suffering and premature death. A telling example is that 4,000 people per day, or 1.6 million per year, are estimated to die prematurely in China due to air pollution. This is a morbidity population that is 33 percent larger than the entire population of San Diego. In terms of the morbidity rate tied to our food system, in the U.S. alone over 75,000 people die each year due to diabetes.

Consumers, markets, politics and sustainable economics

The scale of the numbers tied to unsustainable human and environmental impacts are now too large to be wrong or ignored. Continued purchases of fossil fuels in the quantities now being consumed is an exceedingly poor economic decision. Health research now documents that sugary drinks are the 21st century’s tobacco, in terms of negative human health and cost consequences. The question is why consumers and the political system are comparatively unresponsive to numbers that can only be described as staggering.

The answer is based on the distinction between traditional economics and behavioral economics. Traditional economics is based on the concept of rational consumers and markets. It assumes that people will not borrow more than they can pay back and that lenders will not optimize short-term profits by aggressively promoting high risk, highly leveraged loans. Based on these assumptions, traditional economics would not forecast the 2007-2008 Great Recession. But it did happen because people and markets are not rational. The study of behavioral economics is based on the assumption that people and markets make decisions that reward themselves in the short term by ignoring or grossly underestimating long-term consequences until they become too large to ignore any longer.

The irrational consumer, market and voter now define our economy. For example, it is political suicide to propose raising pump prices to discourage the scale of fossil fuel consumption that is projected to create $72 trillion of climate change costs. Raising gasoline prices was also political suicide in 1974 when it was proposed as a solution to an OPEC oil embargo and continued entanglement in Middle Eastern wars. Imagine our national history if we had the economic will to accept higher pump prices as a cost alternative to Middle Eastern wars and pollution.

Another example is the attempt to regulate sugary drink consumption through public policy, taxes or both. Politically, such actions garner consumer and political responses that appear tantamount to a “live free or die” defense of the U.S. Constitution. But public policy designed to limit consumption of sugary drinks to reduce obesity levels is proving to work in Mexico, where a 10 percent tax on soda generated a 6 percent drop in first-year consumption. The economics appear compelling. Taxing sugary drinks will reduce consumption, and reduced consumption is the solution to reducing the staggering cost of obesity and diabetes. Fundamentally the consumer and political issue is not knowing what to do but rather having the consumer and political will to act on behalf of our economic, human health and environmental long-term interests.

The implications of adopting sustainable economics


The sobering reality is that issues like removing lead from gasoline, mandating automobile seat belts and limiting tobacco sales have historically taken approximately 50 years to move from initial activism for change to the adoption of change. Applying this same time-scale to the issues of climate change and obesity would create staggering losses in human health and economics.

We are now at a decision-making crossroads. The study of behavioral economics recognizes that consumers, politicians and businesses will make decisions resulting in substantial economic loss and human health costs based on a bias toward maintaining the status quo. It recognizes that consumers and voters will make decisions that reject science and statistics to protect strongly held beliefs. People and businesses will delay or procrastinate in taking actions that will advance their long-term welfare because change can be hard or discomforting. These behavioral economics factors are now threatening to generate staggering economic and human suffering damage.

In economics there is no such thing as a free lunch, and the pain from not adopting sustainability will eventually be overwhelming. This level of pain will generate mega-shifts in stock valuations, a restructuring of market share away from companies that gain competitive advantage through pollution, and the emergence of new companies that win customers by delivering price competitive and sustainable solutions.