Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:

87 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 74  Molokai
92 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui – the record for Tuesday was 95…set back in 1968
90 – 79  Kailua Kona
92 – 73  Hilo, Hawaii – broke the record for Tuesday of 88…set back in 1987

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:

3.18  Kilohana, Kauai
0.51  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.26  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.76  Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.79  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:

27  Barking Sands, Kauai – NNW
24  Honouliuli FWS, Oahu – NW
15  Molokai – WNW
20  Lanai – NW
10  Kula 1 – NW
14  Hana, Maui – NW
20  Pali 2, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Tropical Storm Ignacio remains active over the ocean to the
north-northeast of Hawaii, with Hurricane Jimena following
further behind to the east-southeast…while Tropical
Depression 13E remains active towards Mexico /
Typhoon Kilo is located far to the west of Hawaii

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP122015W.gif
Tropical storm Ignacio…is moving by offshore to the
north and northeast of Hawaii as a Hurricane (H )

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Tropical storm Ignacio still looks impressive, although
just far enough offshore to save the islands from
an attack

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical storm Ignacio has an eye feature, as does Hurricane
Jimena, with Typhoon Kilo…out in the western Pacific

Here’s a wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
these hurricanes


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around…some heavy over the ocean –
the showers to the north of Maui County and Oahu are the
outer rain bands associated with this passing tropical storm
looping radar image

 

Tropical Storm Warning…offshore waters beyond 40 miles

High Surf Warning…east shores of all the islands – until
6pm Thursday

Small Craft Advisory…Big Island windward and southeast
waters, northwest Kauai waters, windward waters, Oahu
windward waters, and the Kaiwi Channel, Pailolo Channel,
Maui County windward waters…and Alenuihaha Channel

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds are turning lighter from the south…as Ignacio moves by to our north and northeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system far to the north of the state. At the same time we see Tropical cyclones far to our west, much closer to our northeast, and further to the east-southeast…and now even another system well offshore from Mexico. Ignacio will move by offshore to the north and northeast of the islands through the next couple of days. Our winds are now shifting around to a southerly direction through the rest of the week, keeping unusually humid conditions in place…uncomfortably so at times!

Spotty heavy showers, mainly during the afternoon hours will fall over our area…as Tropical Storm Ignacio migrates by offshore. We’ll see some showers…a few of which will be locally heavy with a possible thunderstorm. As Ignacio moves further away during the second half of the week, we could see showers increasing some, as tropical moisture associated with Ignacio may linger in our island vicinity. As the winds will be quite light during this time, we may see heavy downpours over the interior sections of the islands during the afternoon and early evening hours…triggered by daytime heating of the islands.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_feature/public/thumbnails/image/4stormsgoes9115labeled.jpg?itok=7BvHH3L8 Picture of all four tropical cyclones here in the Pacific Ocean now


Tropical Storm 12E (Ignacio) is moving towards the northwest…and is passing by Hawaii over the offshore waters. As of the latest CPHC advisory, the closest point of approach, from the center of Ignacio…it will pass 218 miles from Kaneohe, Oahu, and 237 miles offshore from Lihue, Kauai. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. Based on the most recent advisory, Ignacio has dropped down a level…with 70 mph sustained winds. Going forward from here, it looks like we’ll find a very gradually weakening tropical storm well offshore of the islands.

Large swells from tropical storm Ignacio will affect the state now, with reinforcing swells from distant hurricane Jimena coming in during the rest of the week. The large swell from hurricane Ignacio caused problems in a number of locations, with debris washed across roads on the Big Island and Oahu and reports of up to 20 foot surf along east facing shores of Kauai. This swell has backed more northerly through the day and also lowered in height and period. This new Jimena swell ill take us back to a nearly easterly direction, which will impact southeast sections of the Big Island and Maui most directly. Guidance shows this swell building through the night, peaking into Wednesday night and remaining steady through Thursday. Late in the week, we should see the direction start to back to a more east-northeast direction as Jimena gains more latitude, and even see an increase in height as it moves closer to the state. Because of the new swell, the high surf warning has been extended. The new warning runs through Thursday, but it may end up being extending through the weekend or longer.

Meanwhile, Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains in our central Pacific. This hurricane came into our central Pacific as a major category 3 tropical cyclone (111-129 mph)…and remains at that strength this evening. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. This is still a strong hurricane, although will be gradually losing power as it heads west-northwestward and then northwestward. There’s a very good chance that hurricane Jemina will stay away from our area…well to the east and northeast of the state later this weekend into early next week.

Here on Maui…It’s 550am Tuesday morning, and it’s mostly clear…with a beautiful start to our day! / Now at 835am, after my fast morning walk, I can see 3-4 thunderstorms, actually the anvil tops, far off the north shore of Maui. Looking at the latest satellite image, I can see that these are the very outer edge of the clouds associated with hurricane Ignacio, probably about as close as I’ll be to this hurricane…as it continues to pass by. / Now at 1110am, there are more clouds around, with even a few towering cumulus as well. It can see the large surf pounding the beaches on the north shore from here in Kula, and I know its even somewhat larger out along the east facing shores. This is the unusual surf that was generated by hurricane Ignacio, unusual in terms of being so large during our summer months. During the winter of course, the north shores can get huge…these waves are only large.

– It’s a hot early afternoon, and it’s gonna be feeling hotter through the rest of this week. We still have northerly breezes blowing, at least for the most part, which is giving us a little relief from the heat and humidity. However, as the winds become light and shift to the south, oh my gawd, it may become almost unbearable. Looking out of my Kula weather tower windows right now, with no air conditioning by the way, I can see the outer edges of hurricane Ignacio far offshore to our north. It’s pretty amazing that these tropical cyclones continue to whiz past us, with nary ah bump…not that I’m complaining mind you!

– The sun just set, and I must admit, even up here at 3000+ feet on the leeward slope of the Haleakala Crater…I’m relieved. I remember each summer up here in the past, through the last 11-12 years that I’ve lived in Kula, that I sort of dread the heat. This summer, however, is really getting to me, and I’ve actually had the thought, I’m going to have to get out of the tropics…it’s too much. I’ll admit that thought has crossed my mind in years past, although I’ve forgotten about it as soon as the cooler weather of autumn arrives. There’s a very good chance that that will happen again this year too. The early evening is beginning just like the early morning began today, mostly clear and lovely. I can still see the high cirrus clouds far to the north, which are streaming off the thunderstorms closer to the center of now tropical storm Ignacio. These high clouds are lighting up a nice pinkish orange at the moment, I’m gonna go out and enjoy them now.  Oh my gosh…there’s a really large towering cumulus cloud/thunderstorm over the Haleakala Crater at sunset…which is lighting up a glorious pink – wow!

<Chocolate is the Answer…who cares what the Question is>

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 06L (Fred) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean, with sustained winds of 45 mph…and is located about 525 miles west-northwest of Cape Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Depression 14E remains active in the northeast Pacific, with sustained winds of 35 mph…and is located about 570 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm Ignacio remains active in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 70 mph…and is located about 335 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active now in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 110 mph…and is located about 815 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 03C (Kilo) remains active now in the western Pacific, with sustained winds of 86 mph, and is located about 762 miles east-northeast of Wake Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate Change will Cost Trillions – The economic ramifications of continuing the 20th century’s economic model, where unsustainable extraction and pollution conveys competitive advantage, are coming into sharp focus. Citigroup now projects a staggering $72 trillion global cost tied to man-made climate change during the 21st century. This is an almost incomprehensible scale of economic damage that is equal to losing four years of the United States’ entire gross domestic product.

The agriculture and food manufacturing industries also confront similar staggering economic consequences. The industrial fast food complex is directly tied to a global obesity and diabetes epidemic that now costs $2 trillion annually, or almost 3 percent of world gross domestic product. If this cost remains constant it will represent $170 trillion in economic cost through the rest of the 21st century.

These staggering economic costs don’t even take into account human suffering and premature death. A telling example is that 4,000 people per day, or 1.6 million per year, are estimated to die prematurely in China due to air pollution. This is a morbidity population that is 33 percent larger than the entire population of San Diego. In terms of the morbidity rate tied to our food system, in the U.S. alone over 75,000 people die each year due to diabetes.

Consumers, markets, politics and sustainable economics

The scale of the numbers tied to unsustainable human and environmental impacts are now too large to be wrong or ignored. Continued purchases of fossil fuels in the quantities now being consumed is an exceedingly poor economic decision. Health research now documents that sugary drinks are the 21st century’s tobacco, in terms of negative human health and cost consequences. The question is why consumers and the political system are comparatively unresponsive to numbers that can only be described as staggering.

The answer is based on the distinction between traditional economics and behavioral economics. Traditional economics is based on the concept of rational consumers and markets. It assumes that people will not borrow more than they can pay back and that lenders will not optimize short-term profits by aggressively promoting high risk, highly leveraged loans. Based on these assumptions, traditional economics would not forecast the 2007-2008 Great Recession. But it did happen because people and markets are not rational. The study of behavioral economics is based on the assumption that people and markets make decisions that reward themselves in the short term by ignoring or grossly underestimating long-term consequences until they become too large to ignore any longer.

The irrational consumer, market and voter now define our economy. For example, it is political suicide to propose raising pump prices to discourage the scale of fossil fuel consumption that is projected to create $72 trillion of climate change costs. Raising gasoline prices was also political suicide in 1974 when it was proposed as a solution to an OPEC oil embargo and continued entanglement in Middle Eastern wars. Imagine our national history if we had the economic will to accept higher pump prices as a cost alternative to Middle Eastern wars and pollution.

Another example is the attempt to regulate sugary drink consumption through public policy, taxes or both. Politically, such actions garner consumer and political responses that appear tantamount to a “live free or die” defense of the U.S. Constitution. But public policy designed to limit consumption of sugary drinks to reduce obesity levels is proving to work in Mexico, where a 10 percent tax on soda generated a 6 percent drop in first-year consumption. The economics appear compelling. Taxing sugary drinks will reduce consumption, and reduced consumption is the solution to reducing the staggering cost of obesity and diabetes. Fundamentally the consumer and political issue is not knowing what to do but rather having the consumer and political will to act on behalf of our economic, human health and environmental long-term interests.

The implications of adopting sustainable economics


The sobering reality is that issues like removing lead from gasoline, mandating automobile seat belts and limiting tobacco sales have historically taken approximately 50 years to move from initial activism for change to the adoption of change. Applying this same time-scale to the issues of climate change and obesity would create staggering losses in human health and economics.

We are now at a decision-making crossroads. The study of behavioral economics recognizes that consumers, politicians and businesses will make decisions resulting in substantial economic loss and human health costs based on a bias toward maintaining the status quo. It recognizes that consumers and voters will make decisions that reject science and statistics to protect strongly held beliefs. People and businesses will delay or procrastinate in taking actions that will advance their long-term welfare because change can be hard or discomforting. These behavioral economics factors are now threatening to generate staggering economic and human suffering damage.

In economics there is no such thing as a free lunch, and the pain from not adopting sustainability will eventually be overwhelming. This level of pain will generate mega-shifts in stock valuations, a restructuring of market share away from companies that gain competitive advantage through pollution, and the emergence of new companies that win customers by delivering price competitive and sustainable solutions.