Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the minimums Saturday:

87 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu – the all time record Saturday was 91…set back in 1995
86 – 75  Molokai
89 – 77  Kahului, Maui 
92 – 78  Kailua Kona
80 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:

0.46  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.59  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.20  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.28  Kahakuloa, Maui
1.38  kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:

31  Puu Lua, Kauai – NE
43  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
31  Molokai – NE
35  Lanai – NE
29  Kahoolawe – NE
28  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE 
30  Kamuela AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
We see a former tropical depression falling apart to the south
of the islands… and category 2 Hurricane Guillermo
well to our east-southeast

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP092015W.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms remain offshore to the southwest and
northwest of the islands…along with the low cloud swirl
associated with former tropical depression 08E to the
south of Hawaii…along with hurricane Guillermo
to the east-southeast – Looping version


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy over the islands…with clouds
impacting parts of the Big Island and Maui County
Looping version


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally in our vicinity…mostly along the
windward sides of Maui County and the Big Island
looping radar image

Small Craft Wind Advisory, windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island…
now expanded to Oahu’s waters

High Surf Advisory…east shores – Sunday afternoon
onwards for several days, be careful

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will remain active…although gradually become lighter during the first half of the new week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find moderately strong, near 1027 millibar high pressure system far to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time, we have troughs/low pressure systems to the west, south and southeast of our islands. We’ll see active trade winds this weekend as a low pressure system moves by to the south of the state. As tropical cyclone Guillermo moves closer to the state, our winds will gradually become lighter through the first day or two of the new week…although may become blustery when Guillermo eventually moves closer to the state Wednesday and Thursday.

There will be showers falling along our windward sides locally. This showery episode is what’s left of former tropical depression 08E, which is moving by to the south of the state now…with its northern cloud fringe spreading tropical moisture over parts of the island chain. There will very likely be another area of tropical moisture arriving Wednesday and Thursday, as tropical storm Guillermo moves into our area then. Depending upon just where Guillermo ends up going, will have a large bearing on where the bulk of its rainfall will occur, and what kind of wind conditions will effect our islands.

The deeper tropics remain active with many areas of low pressure. The most notable area at the moment is former tropical cyclone 08E, here’s a satellite image of its location. This area of low clouds is passing south of the Big Island. This in turn is bringing sultry weather to the Aloha State now, with some increase in windward showers, especially over the eastern end of the island chain through Sunday…although a few elsewhere at times too. At the same time, as this low pressure vortex moves by to our south, it will keep our local trade winds going…with small craft wind advisories active around Maui County and the Big Island.

Meanwhile, Hurricane 09E (Guillermo) remains active…moving our central Pacific. Here’s a satellite image of this tempest, along with the looping version…and finally what the computer models are showing. It still looks as if this tropical cyclone will move close to the islands around Wednesday through Thursday. If the current forecast track remains similar to what it will be then, tropical storm Guillermo will bring another round of muggy tropical weather our way then. If this were to occur, as the current forecast suggests, we could find lots of heavy rainfall and a chance of blustery winds then too.

An interesting note:  U.S. Air Force hurricane hunters are scheduled to begin reconnaissance missions into Guillermo this morning…with this NOAA G-IV aircraft conducting atmospheric measurements along the way.

It should be pointed out…that computer models are still showing an array of possible tracks across our area. This continues to suggest at least some degree of uncertainty around the forecast as Guillermo gets closer to Hawaii. Meanwhile, in the marine environment, we’ll be on the outlook for rising surf later Sunday, from swells generated by this approaching hurricane, which will arrive along our east shores into the new week. I suggest that we pay close attention to this upcoming weather event, as it may bring inclement conditions to our state. Finally, and with things so worked-up over tropical storms and such, we can remember that August is the most active month of the year…in regards to tropical cyclones!

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 540am Saturday morning, skies are mostly clear, although there are low clouds along our windward sides. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 57.8 degrees, while it was 77 down at the Kahului airport, and 77 out in Hana…with a cooler 50 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time.

– It’s late afternoon now, under variable clouds, almost all of them of the low cloud variety. The trade winds are whipping up our surrounding ocean pretty good, with gusty conditions extending over our islands too. The windward sides are picking up the bulk of any shower activity, although most of that remains over the Big Island at the time of this writing.

– Totally awesome day, sunny to partly cloudy, warm to very warm temperatures…along with those off and on passing windward showers falling around the edges. / Later, with this still big, not far past full moon rising, across our Hawaiian Skies…the second of a special Full moon month in July.

Friday Evening Film: There are several good films showing, although they are just opening, and will very likely be too crowded at the start of their run. I’m going with Jeff and Svetlana, his girlfriend who is here from Germany again, and another lady friend of ours. We’re going to see what essentially is a teen flick, called Paper Towns, starring Nate Wolff, Cara Delevingne, Halston Sage…among many others. The synopsis: Paper Towns is a coming-of-age story centering on Quentin and his enigmatic neighbor Margo, who loved mysteries so much she became one. After taking him on an all-night adventure through their hometown, Margo suddenly disappears–leaving behind cryptic clues for Quentin to decipher. The search leads Quentin and his quick-witted friends on an exhilarating adventure that is equal parts hilarious and moving. Ultimately, to track down Margo, Quentin must find a deeper understanding of true friendship–and true love.  

This turned out to be a cute film, and I ended up liking it somewhat more than I thought that I might. One of the things that I particularly liked was the sensitivity displayed by the actors for each others well being. These teenagers spoke very openly about their individual vulnerabilities…which was very refreshing. The three of us were the only older adults in the theater audience, which was rather unique, although not embarrassing. My teenage years were so different than what I was seeing on the screen, and made it fun for me personally to witness. The three boys, who were the main actors in the film, had a good chemistry going on, although the two girls in the film, weren’t so well cast in my opinion. They were cute to look at of course, although somehow just didn’t completely fit in as tightly as the boys. At any rate, Svetlana gave it a soft B grade, Jeff and I both rated it a soft B+. If you have any interest, here’s the trailer for this fun film.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.) An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for slow development of this system this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane 09E (Guillermo) remains at category 2 level, with sustained winds of 105 mph, and is located about 1055 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Hurricane Guillermo will peak in strength today, and will gradually start weakening tonight going forward. Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

1.) A weak low pressure area, associated with post-tropical cyclone 08E, was located about 270 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This feature was moving west at 10 to 15 miles an hour. Atmospheric conditions will remain unfavorable for further development over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent

2.) An area of low pressure about 920 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii was moving west northwest at 10 to 15 miles an hour. Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this low remain disorganized. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days.

~~~ Here’s a link to a satellite image …showing these areas above ^^^

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 13W (Soudelor) remains active, located about 8 NM southeast of Saipan, CNMI. Here’s the JTWC graphicaltrack map…and asatellite image…and what thecomputer modelsare showing.
Tropical Storm 14W is now active, located about 382 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map...and a satellite image...and what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Forests take years to rebound from drought – In the virtual worlds of climate modeling, forests and other vegetation are assumed to bounce back quickly from extreme drought. But that assumption is far off the mark, according to a new study of drought impacts at forest sites worldwide. Living trees took an average of two to four years to recover and resume normal growth rates after droughts ended, researchers report today in the journal Science.

“This really matters because in the future droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change,” says lead author William R.L. Anderegg, an assistant professor of biology at the University of Utah. “Some forests could be in a race to recover before the next drought strikes.”

Forest trees play a big role in buffering the impact of human-induced climate change by removing massive amounts of carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere and incorporating the carbon into woody tissues. The finding that drought stress sets back tree growth for years suggests that Earth’s forests are capable of storing less carbon than climate models have calculated.. “We highlight a success story, which provides hope and optimism that ongoing conservation actions can prevail.”

“If forests are not as good at taking up carbon dioxide, this means climate change would speed up,” says Anderegg, who performed much of the work on this study while at Princeton University. He co-authored the study with colleagues at Princeton, Northern Arizona University, University of Nevada-Reno, Pyrenean Institute Of Ecology, University of New Mexico, Arizona State University, U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.

Tree rings tell the story

The rate of recovery from drought is largely unknown for the vast majority of tree species. Anderegg and colleagues carefully measured the recovery of tree stem growth after severe droughts since 1948 at more than 1,300 forest sites around the earth using records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Tree rings provide a convenient history of wood growth and track carbon uptake of the ecosystem in which the tree grew.

The researchers found that a few forests showed positive effects, that is, observed growth was higher than predicted after drought, most prominently in parts of California and the Mediterranean region. But in the majority of the world’s forests, trees struggled for years after experiencing drought.

On average, trunk growth took 2 to 4 years to return to normal. Growth was about 9 percent slower than expected during the first year of recovery, and remained 5 percent slower in the second year. Long-lasting effects of drought were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, and among pines and tree species with low hydraulic safety margins. “These are the species that take risks – they tend to keep using water at a high rate even as drought progresses,” Anderegg says.

How drought causes such long-lasting harm remains unknown, but the researchers offered three possible answers: Loss of foliage and carbohydrate reserves during drought may impair growth in subsequent years. Pests and diseases may accumulate in drought-stressed trees. Lasting damage to vascular tissues could impair water transport.

Worsening droughts

While it remains difficult to predict changes in precipitation, the impact of higher temperatures is certain. “Drought, especially the type that matters to forests, is about the balance between precipitation and evaporation. And evaporation is very strongly linked to temperature,” Anderegg says. “The fact that temperatures are going up suggests quite strongly that the western regions of the U.S. are going to have more frequent and more severe droughts, substantially reducing forests’ ability to pull carbon from the atmosphere.”

The drought that hit the Southwest during 2000-2003 makes the point clear. The deficit in precipitation was comparable to earlier droughts, but the temperature was 3 to 6 degrees F hotter than the long-term average. “It really seemed to make the drought lethal to vegetation where previous droughts with the same rainfall deficit weren’t,” Anderegg says.

The impact of delayed recovery from drought on carbon storage is not trivial. Over a century, carbon storage capacity in semi-arid ecosystems alone would drop by about 1.6 metric gigatons – an amount equal to about one-fourth of the entire U.S. emissions in a year.

“In most of our current models of ecosystems and climate, drought effects on forests switch on and off like a light. When drought conditions go away, the models assume a forest’s recovery is complete and close to immediate,” Anderegg says. “That’s not how the real world works.”