Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 6-7, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

86 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 74  Molokai
90 – 74  Kahului, Maui
87 – 76  Kailua Kona
87 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:

0.21  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.23  St. Stephens, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.07  Hana AP, Maui
0.34  Pahoa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

20  Poipu, Kauai – NE
30  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
24  Molokai – ENE
30  Lanai – NE
32  Kahoolawe – NNE
32  Maalaea Bay, Maui – N
35  Puu Mali, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

The east and central Pacific have active tropical disturbances, moving
east to west…with possible migrations northward later this week
<more information on them below>

Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over the state, a few cloudy
areas locally…northern fringe of cirrus southwest through southeast
Looping version

Some showers, mostly over the nearby ocean…with a few
over the islands – looping radar image

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island 

High Surf Advisory…South shores of all islands

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our summertime trade winds are well established now. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a moderately strong, near 1028 millibar high pressure system far to the north-northeast of the state…with an associated ridge extending down into the area north of the islands. At the same time, there’s a trough of low pressure to the northwest…with a cold front just northwest of it. Meanwhile, there are numerous low pressure cells along the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the south of Hawaii…moving more or less westward. Our trade winds will gain some additional strength going forward…remaining well established for the time being. Many of the computer models continue to insist that a tropical system will move by close to, or just north of the islands during the upcoming weekend…which could cut off our trade winds then. The wind direction and strength this weekend will depend upon how close, or far away this tropical system gets to the islands…stay tuned.

As the trade winds ramp-up in speed going forward…there will be the usual off and on windward showers. As the trade winds get stronger, there’s always that chance that a few showers will be carried over into the leeward sides here and there too. Meanwhile, computer models continue to suggest rainy weather arriving over some parts of the state later this week. It appears that Friday into the weekend would have the greatest chance of a pronounced change in our local weather conditions. I’ll keep an eye on this developing weather situation…stay tuned. I’ll also be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

A tropical disturbance remains active in the eastern Pacific…which is very likely to cross over into our central Pacific with time. This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 96E. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving it a high 90% chance of developing over the next two days…maintainging this high 90% chance through the next five days. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this area. By the way, here’s what the National Hurricane Center suggests will be happening within 5-days.  A NOAA Gulf stream jet is tentatively scheduled to sample the environment around this disturbance today, to help computer model forecasts. 

Meanwhile, we have 2 tropical disturbances here in our Central Pacific as well. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), there are showers and thunderstorms about 775 miles south-southeast of Hilo, on the Big Island…and another area located about 1100 miles south-southwest of Honolulu. Here’s a satellite image of these areas, both marked with a yellow X, in addition to the area to the east of it (still in the eastern Pacific), marked with an red X, having a high chance of developing. By the way, I’m not worrying about either of these two tropical systems currently in our area…as far as becoming a threat to the islands. The area with a high chance of developing, may eventually become somewhat of a problem for the islands.

Here on Maui…it’s 545am Monday morning, with mostly clear skies, along with some low clouds banked-up against the windward sides. At the same time, there’s some high cirrus clouds to the northwest  and west of the island. This cirrus lit up a nice pink and orange cooler around sunrise! The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 52.7 degrees, while it was 75 down at the Kahului airport, 73 out in Hana…and 46 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.

– We’re into the afternoon period now, with clear to partly cloudy skies for the most part. It’s 80 degrees up here in Kula, while it was 87 down at the Kahului airport, 86 in Kapalua, 82 out in Hana, and a cooler 54 atop the Haleakala Crater…all at about the same time. The atmosphere is totally clear of volcanic haze, and the visibilities here on Maui are excellent today!

– It’s 830pm on this Monday evening, and just glancing out across the night sky, from here in Kula, it looks quite clear, as I can see lots of stars and planets. The air temperature here at my weather tower was 63.3 degrees, while down at the Kahului AP, it was a warmer 80 degrees, with a 77 out in Hana, and 48 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii have continued to become better organized, and satellite wind data indicate that the surface circulation has become a little better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the system moves west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a satellite image showing this tropical disturbance

2.)  An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of southern Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low moves west- northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms persist near a weak, nearly stationary surface low located about 750 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for significant development in this area during the next two days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

2.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii increased in coverage, and have become slightly better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system as it moves slowly toward the north or northeast over the next couple of days

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…40 percent

Elsewhere, there are no tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM computer models are showing.

Tropical storm 10W (Linfa) remains active in the South China Sea. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model are showing.

Typhoon 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GEFS computer model is showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  How rain can enhance food safety – To protect consumers from food borne illness, produce farmers should wait 24 hours after a rain or irrigating their fields to harvest crops, according to new research published in the journal Applied and Environmental Microbiology.

Rain or irrigation creates soil conditions that are more hospitable to Listeria monocytogenes, which when ingested may cause the human illness Listeriosis. Waiting to harvest crops reduces the risk of exposure to the pathogen, which could land on fresh produce.

Cornell scientists, along with other agricultural researchers from around the country, are conducting more food safety research in order to set rules, standards and guidelines for the Food Safety Modernization Act, which became law in 2011.

“We’re looking at the science that helps governmental entities, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and private entities create policies that keep our food supply safe,” said Daniel Weller, a doctoral student in the field of food science and the lead author of the new work, “Spatial and Temporal Factors Associated With an Increased Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Spinach Fields.” The other authors are Martin Wiedmann, Cornell’s Gellert Family Professor in Food Safety, and Laura Strawn, assistant professor at Virginia Tech.

Factors such as proximity of a field location to water and other landscape features also play important roles in the presence of Listeria. The researchers tested fields in a variety of locations throughout New York and found that after rains or irrigation, the chances of finding Listeria were 25 times greater. But, after the fields dried at least 24 hours, the chances of detecting Listeria dropped dramatically, to levels similar to baseline.

Currently, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has proposed rules allowing farmers to apply “wait periods” after application of irrigation water. This would allow for “potentially dangerous microbes to die off,” said the FDA.

Through a combination of weather data, GIS technology and data driven information, technology allows farmers and producers to take a systems approach managing food safety.

Said Wiedmann: “Current technology tools are improving food safety and increasing consumer confidence in food products.”