Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday:

84  Lihue, Kauai
85  Honolulu, Oahu
88  Molokai
88  Kahului, Maui
85  Kona, Hawaii
82  Hilo, Hawaii


Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 743pm Monday evening:


Kailua Kona – 82
Hilo, Hawaii – 74


Haleakala Summit –   43  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 32 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.

 


Aloha Paragraphs



http://cdnstatic-2.mydestination.com/hawaii/Pictures/PageEditor/in_use/Waimanalo.JPG

Our trade winds will be light to moderately strong, showers will be
active into Tuesday, locally heavy, especially around
Kauai and Oahu…chance of a thunderstorm

Flash Flood Warning…Kauai / Flash Flood Watch… Oahu




The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Monday evening:

18  Port Allen, Kauai – SE
25  Kahuku Trng, Oahu – SE
23  Molokai -NE
23  Lanai – NE
35  Kahoolawe – E
25  Kapalua, Maui – NE
25  South Point, Big Island – NE


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:

4.47  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
4.87  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.07  Molokai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.02  Lanai
0.43  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.65  Piihonua, Big Island


We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will be light to moderately strong…although locally stronger in gusts at times. Here’s a weather chart showing a near 1026 millibar high pressure center far to the north, moving eastward. Fairly steady trade winds during the next 5-days or so. A surface trough of low pressure near Kauai, is veering our winds to the southeast locally according to weather maps. This could bring some volcanic haze (vog) over the smaller islands…locally.

There will be a windward showers, some leeward too, more active than normal into mid-week, locally heavy…chance of a thunderstorm over Kauai and Oahu. Satellite imagery shows low clouds over many parts of the island chain. At the same time, we see an area of brighter white, towering cumulus or thunderstorms over the ocean to the north of Kauai…and southeast of the Big Island. Here’s the looping radar image, showing light to moderate, and even a few heavy showers moving by, mostly over the offshore waters, arriving over the islands locally too. Showers will be more numerous today into Wednesday, a few of which will be rather generous…perhaps even a thunderstorm locally.


In sum: The presence of an low pressure trough near Kauai, will prompt locally heavy showers…perhaps even a thunderstorm here and there over the next day or two. There will be showers falling along our windward sides at times, although the leeward and interior sections will find some shower activity too, a few of which will be generous. At the same time, our winds will remain light to moderately strong during this week. This unsettled weather pattern will continue into Tuesday, with the threat of heavy showers or a thunderstorm. As we push into mid-week, the heavy showers will likely back off, leaving us in a light to moderately strong, trade wind weather pattern through the rest of the week. I’ll be back early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


Atlantic Ocean: Tropical storm 11L (Jerry) remains active in the central Atlantic. Here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER. 
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TODAY. THESE RAINS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


Western Pacific Ocean: Typhoon 20W (Wutip) is dissipating inland over Vietnam. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image – Final Warning

Tropical depression 21W (Sepat) remains active over the northwest Pacific. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image

Tropical storm 22W (Fitow) is now active over the western Pacific. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image


South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

 

North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC


Interesting:  Climate change pushing tropical trees upslope ‘exactly as predicted’ – Tropical tree communities are moving up mountainsides to cooler habitats as temperatures rise, a new study in Global Change Biology has found. By examining the tree species present in ten one-hectare plots at various intervals over a decade, researchers found that the proportion of lowland species increased in the plots at higher elevations. The study, which was undertaken in Volcan Barva, Costa Rica, adds to a growing body of evidence that climate change is having an impact on species range distributions.

As climate change leads to warmer temperatures, species must respond if they are to survive. One way to do this is to migrate to new habitats that become suitable (and away from old ones that become unsuitable); another way is to adapt to hotter temperatures, but the speed of climate change may be too fast for some species to evolve to keep up. In some cases, if their physiology permits it, species may be capable of tolerating increases in temperature, but the likelihood of this is unknown.


The researchers first turned to herbarium records to calculate the preferred temperature of thousands of tree species, by looking at the geographic location of sampling locations and the temperature ranges they encompassed. With the temperature preferences for each species known, it was then possible to calculate a ‘community temperature score’ for each of the ten study plots, by averaging the preferred temperatures of all species present. A high community temperature score indicated an abundance of species found in the hot lowlands, whereas a low community temperature score reflected the presence of high altitude species from cooler habitats.


Plots were monitored over the course of a decade, and in nine of the ten plots the community temperature score increased. This indicates a shift in species composition, with the relative abundance of lowland species increasing over time “exactly as predicted under climate-driven upward species migrations,” Kenneth Feeley, lead author of the study with Florida International University and Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, told mongabay.com.


These changes corresponded to a mean thermal migration rate of 0.0065°C per year. However, over the past 60 years regional warming has been 0.0167°C per year, so the average migration rate observed across plots is not fast enough to keep up with the rate of warming. Still, encouragingly, when looked at individually, migration in 4 of the 10 plots did keep pace with regional warming.