Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha Paragraphs / August 27-28, 2013

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday:

86  Lihue, Kauai
89  Honolulu, Oahu
84  Molokai
89  Kahului, Maui
86  Kona, Hawaii
84  Hilo, Hawaii

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 810pm Tuesday evening:

Kailua Kona – 79
Hana airport, Maui – 75

Haleakala Summit –   45 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 45 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.

Aloha Paragraphs

Trade winds…losing strength Wednesday for several days

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County/Big Island

A few windward showers, although limited…
with a modest increase expected

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Tuesday evening:

18  Poipu, Kauai – NE
35  Kuaokala, Oahu – N
28  Molokai – NE
33  Lanai – NE
29  Kahoolawe – NE
25  Kapalua, Maui – NE
27  Kealakomo, Big Island – ENE

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

0.06  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.01  Schofield Barracks, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Lanai
0.01  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.51  Honaunau, Big Island

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The trade winds will gradually become lighter into Thursday and Friday. Here’s a weather chart showing a large near 1028 millibar high pressure system located far to the north-northwest of the islands. The models continue to show a reduction in our trade wind speeds Wednesday through early Friday. This will occur as an area of low pressure aloft edges towards our area, along with a surface trough to the north and northeast. These weather features will prompt a lighter wind pattern for several days. The longer range outlook suggests that light to moderately strong trade winds will rebound by the weekend into next week.

A few showers will arrive along the windward sides, increasing some tonight…for a day or two. Satellite imagery shows just a few low level clouds over the ocean surrounding the islands…except around the Big Island. Here’s the looping radar image, showing just a few light showers falling over the windward sides locally. As the lighter breezes arrive Wednesday we’ll also see an increase in shower activity. There are expected to be light shower bands arriving over the windward sides through Friday morning. Then, as the trades pick up again later in the week, those showers will diminish…followed by more dry weather this coming Labor Day holiday weekend.

Glenn on Maui: Here on Maui as we head towards the sunset hour, skies remain very clear in most areas.  As noted above, a shift in our weather will occur beginning Wednesday, with lighter winds and periods of light windward showers arriving. This satellite image shows a trough of low pressure to our northeast…which will move into the windward sides tonight, first on the Big Island…sticking around for a day or two. Today was one of those special days, at least in terms of the weather…with tons of sunshine and hardly a sprinkle anywhere! I didn’t leave this property, other than to take a brisk walk early in the day, just hunkering in at home. As I’ve been noting here the last couple of days, I’m seeing growing evidence of an attack on Syrian military forces, with the U.S. leading the charge. I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative early Wednesday morning, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS…SHOWERS…AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION…AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED WHILE IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS…

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST…AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR
0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW IS STILL PROBABLY PRODUCING
AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE LOW WILL
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH LAND OR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER BY
THURSDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY.   

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LOW WILL ALSO BE
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Interesting: New report calls for immediate action to tackle aviation emissions – A new scientific report released today highlights the critical importance of taking early action when implementing measures to reduce the climate impact of rapidly increasing emissions from aviation.

With a decision expected shortly on how and when to tackle international aviation emissions, today’s report increases the pressure on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (the United Nations agency responsible) not to defer a decision on the adoption of a market-based measure (MBM).

Over the past 2 years momentum had been building towards a decision at the 38th ICAO General Assembly, scheduled to begin in Montreal in late September, on the need for an effective global MBM. But political differences amongst key states now threaten yet again a decision this year on how and when the sector should address its growing contribution to climate change – the next Assembly is not until 2016.

The report by Manchester Metropolitan University’s Centre for Air Transport and Environment (CATE) “Mitigating future aviation CO2 emissions – timing is everything” shows that the real climate benefit of any action depends on the cumulative emission reductions between now and a future date, and not just on achieving a certain amount of emission reductions by a specific year (as ICAO has focused on): CO2 has a long lifetime so concentration levels are determined by cumulative emissions over time. Early reductions result in a lower emissions trajectory than equivalent annual savings made at a later date.

The report shows that while the technology, operations and alternative fuels measures that are ICAO’s focus have the potential to make significant reductions in the climate impact of emissions from aviation, these will only come in the longer term given the lead times needed to develop and bring to market whereas immediate reductions from effective market based measures implemented now far outweigh the climate impacts of ICAO’s approach.

The report shows that a global MBM such as emissions trading introduced in 2012 and the existing European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) for aviation provide the largest single incremental improvements in radiative forcing (RF) and temperature response by 2050 (a 30.1% improvement in RF for a global MBM and around 15% in RF for the EU ETS compared to a business as usual scenario based on technology and operational improvements).

Based on best estimates of likely future uptake, biofuels would have a minimal climate impact by 2050.