Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha paragraphs / September 2-3, 2012

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai –                      85  
Honolulu airport, Oahu –   87  
Molokai airport –                  84
Kahului airport, Maui –         84 
Kona airport     –                 84  
Hilo airport, Hawaii –            81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops around the state…as of 830pm Sunday evening:

Barking Sands, Kauai – 80
Hilo, Hawaii – 72

Haleakala Summit –      52  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit –    M (near 13,800 feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…although this webcam is not always working correctly. 

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.

Aloha Paragraphs

Gusty trade winds, windward showers at
times through this Labor Day holiday

Nice sunrise this morning!

As this weather map shows, we have a moderately strong near 1030 millibar high pressure system located to the northeast of the islands. Our local trade winds will be moderately strong and gusty through the next week…increasing some Monday into Tuesday.

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Sunday evening:

31            Lihue, Kauai – NE
37            Kuaokala, Oahu – ENE   
35            Molokai – NE
39            Kahoolawe – NE
36            Kahului, Maui -NE 
36            Lanai – NE
35            Puu Mali, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean.  Here's the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image…and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:
 
0.45               Kilohana, Kauai
0.52               Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.60               Molokai
0.09               Lanai
0.00               Kahoolawe
1.20               Puu Kukui, Maui
0.87               Kawainui Stream, Big Island  

                                                       ~~ Hawaii Sunset Commentary ~~ 

Our trade winds will be on the increase over the next several days…and then gradually turn a bit lighter by Thursday into the weekend. The NWS forecast office in Honolulu is keeping the small craft wind advisory active over almost all of the marine zones around the state, as the trade winds increase some over the next few days. We find a moderately strong, near 1030 millibar high pressure system (weather map) located to the northeast of the islands Sunday evening…as the source of this quick paced trade flow. Windward showers or drizzle will fall at times through this holiday weekend into Tuesday…with a few traveling over into the leeward areas here and there on the gusty trades.

Here in Kula, Maui at 515pm Sunday evening, it was partly cloudy and near calm…with an air temperature of 72.5F degrees. The trades are forecast to continue across our islands, increasing a notch over the next couple of days. These trade winds will blow generally in the moderately strong realms, although there will be those stronger gusts at times. These trades were gusting up to 40+ mph in a few of those windier locations around Maui County and the Big Island during the afternoon. If we look at this satellite image, it shows low clouds surrounding the islands…and over the mountains in places too. These lower level clouds will bring a few passing showers over the next few days…perhaps increasing somewhat by next weekend. At the same time, we see areas of high cirrus clouds moving over parts of the state at the time of this writing. 

~~~ This past Friday evening I went to a dance party in Haiku, on the windward side of east Maui. It was fun to dance to good music outside under the full moon! For some reason, as is often the case, there were more women dancing than men, which was fine with me. The dance floor was on grass, which made it a little difficult, and it wasn't quite flat either, oh well…it worked out alright anyway. I had the sunroof open on my car as I drove home through Makawao, and up through the pasture lands of Kula…so the full moon was beaming down on me.

~~~ Since I went dancing Friday evening, rather than going to see a new film as usual, I decided at the last moment to head down to Kahului, to see Hit and Run last evening.  This film featured Dax Shepard, Kristen Bell, Bradley Cooper, and Kristin Chenoweth…among many others. The synopsis: a young couple risks it all when they leave their small town life and embark on a road trip that may lead them towards the opportunity of a lifetime. Their fast-paced road trip grows awkwardly complicated and hilarious when they are chased by a friend from the past, a federal marshal and a band of misfits. ~~~ Looking at the critics comments, I found that they ranged from terrible to very good, what else is new? At any rate, I was willing to give this film a try, while bidding my time, until the film I really want to see, called Lawless…has crowds thinned out at the theaters, perhaps next weekend. I thought Hit and Run was pretty good, deserving a B grade, as it definitely was entertaining. It wasn't a great film, and I probably could have missed it without missing all that much. However, I wasn't sorry I had seen it, and as I think back about it, after sleeping on my thoughts about it, I enjoyed it quite a bit. By the way, there were only five people in the theater watching this film…which tells us something. Here's the trailer for Hit and Run.

I'll be back Monday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

        World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean/Caribbean Sea:  Tropical storm Leslie (12L) is active in the tropical Atlantic…located 555 miles south of Bermuda. Sustained winds were 60 mph, moving north at 8 mph. Here's the NHC graphical track map for Leslie, and a satellite image. Here's the hurricane models output for this storm. Look for Leslie to become a hurricane within 72 hours or so…as its meeting less than favorable environmental conditions for strengthening at the moment. Leslie will move in a generally north-northwest direction, later in the forecast cycle, it will attain hurricane strength. There are no land areas in the projected path of this tropical cyclone at the moment, although Leslie could move right over Bermuda this coming weekend.

Meanwhile, an disturbed weather remains active in the central Atlantic, located about 1225 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It has a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

Here's a satellite image showing tropical storm Leslie…and this tropical disturbance.

Gulf of Mexico:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Eastern Pacific Ocean:  Tropical storm John (10E) remains active in the eastern north Pacific, located about 240 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California. It has 40 mph sustained winds, and is moving northwest at 13 mph. Here's the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this storm. Here's what the hurricane models are showing for this storm. There will be no threat to Mexico from this system.

Here's a satellite image showing tropical storm John (10E).

Central Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Western Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific Ocean:   There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Interesting:  Soot is a general term that refers to impure carbon particles resulting from the incomplete combustion of a hydrocarbon. Global climate models may be overstating the warming properties of black carbon particles, according to new research led by the University of California, Davis. The study was published online Friday in the journal Science.

Black carbon is a climate forcing agent formed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass, and is emitted in both anthropogenic and naturally occurring soot. It consists of pure carbon in several linked forms.

Black carbon warms the Earth by absorbing heat in the atmosphere and by reducing albedo, the ability to reflect sunlight, when deposited on snow and ice. "Our results don’t change the fact that things are going to warm — just to what degree, literally," said Christopher Cappa, a UC Davis civil and environmental engineering professor. "Our findings should result in more accurate predictions."

A component of soot, black carbon is created through combustion — when fuels such as oil, coal and wood are burned. Because black carbon absorbs sunlight, it can warm the atmosphere. Reducing black carbon in the atmosphere has been a target for near-term climate mitigation. Earlier studies have suggested black carbon’s warming impacts are second only to carbon dioxide.

Approximately 20% of black carbon is estimated as emitted from burning biofuels, 40% from fossil fuels, and 40% from open biomass burning. Today, the majority of black carbon emissions are from developing countries and this trend is expected to increase. The largest sources of black carbon are Asia, Latin America, and Africa. China and India together account for 25-35% of global black carbon emissions.

Unlike greenhouse gases, which can live in the atmosphere for centuries, black carbon particles have lifespans of only one to two weeks, making it more difficult to quantify their impacts on a global scale through direct measurements. So scientists have had to rely more heavily on mathematical models to understand black carbon particles’ impacts on climate change.

Climate models regarding black carbon have been based on theories and laboratory experiments showing that as other chemicals are condensed onto black carbon particles, the warming properties of these particles increase. In the new study, an international team of researchers left the lab and went into the field, where they used direct measurements to establish to what extent laboratory experiments translated to the real atmosphere.

The researchers found that the chemical and physical changes that occurred in the field had less impact on black carbon’s warming ability than lab experiments and models had forecast. Atmospheric changes to the black carbon particles increased light absorption by about 6 percent, rather than the 100 percent increase suggested by previous studies.

"This study has implications for thinking about the direct impact of black carbon on Earth’s energy budget," said Cappa. In their new study, Cappa and his colleagues collected data during two field studies in 2010: CalNex 2010 and the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES). For CalNex, Cappa boarded the research vessel Atlantis and sailed along the California coast from San Diego to San Francisco.

The team measured the light absorption by black carbon particles, the extent to which black carbon particles mixed with other chemical components in the urban atmosphere, and how black carbon particles changed over time. During CARES, measurements were made at a ground site in Sacramento.