Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha paragraphs / August 24-25, 2012

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai –                      85  
Honolulu airport, Oahu –       85  
Kaneohe, Oahu –                  M
Molokai airport –                  86
Kahului airport, Maui –     92  – high temperature record for the date / 95F in 1996
Kona airport     –                 86  
Hilo airport, Hawaii –            85

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops around the state…as of 5pm Friday evening:

Kahului, Maui – 88
Barking Sands, Kauai – 78

Haleakala Summit –      45  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit –    M (near 13,800 feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…although this webcam is not always working correctly. 

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.  

 Aloha Paragraphs

Strengthening trade winds this
weekend…fewer showers

Sun dimming higher level clouds
over the islands at times locally

As this weather map shows, we have a moderately strong high pressure systems located to the northwest through northeast of the islands. At the same time we have a trough of low pressure moving away from the western part of the island chain. Our local trade winds will pick up a bit Saturday and Sunday, into the early part of the new week ahead.

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Friday evening:

20            Moloaa Dairy, Kauai – SE
24            Kahuku Trng, Oahu – ESE   
23            Molokai – ENE 
36            Kahoolawe – ESE
24            Lipoa, Maui – E 
28            Lanai – NE
29            Upolu airport, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean.  Here's the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image…and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday night:
 
3.78               Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.84               Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.00               Molokai
0.01               Lanai
0.00               Kahoolawe
0.01               Puu Kukui, Maui
0.23               Pahoa, Big Island  

                                                       ~~ Sunset Commentary ~~ 

Our trade winds will pick up a notch this weekend…into the new week ahead. These trade winds will become strong enough to require small craft wind advisories over those windiest parts of Maui County and the Big Island tonight…through Sunday at least. We still find several moderately strong high pressure systems (weather map) located to the northwest through northeast of the islands Friday evening. At the same time, we find a trough of low pressure moving away to the west of Kauai. Our summertime trades will carry windward showers our way at times, although less and less as we move into the weekend time frame. The leeward coasts and slopes will see a few showers here and there, during the afternoon and evening hours…although this threat will be fading away this weekend as well.

Friday evening film: A couple of friends and I are seeing a new film called The Bourne Legacy, starring Jeremy Renner, Rachel Weisz, Edward Norton, Joan Allen, Albert Finney, Oscar Isaac, David Strathairn and Stacy Keach. The synopsis: to become an elite government operative, a man hands himself over to the same agency that birthed the likes of Jason Bourne, but he's eventually forced to go on the run. The critics aren't being overly kind to this film, perhaps because they miss Matt Damon, the original actor who starred in the original Bourne Legacy films. At any rate, based on the trailer among other things, I'm nonetheless looking forward to seeing this film, as are my friends who will be joining me. Here's a trailer just in case you wanna take a quite look. I'll be back Saturday morning with my own personal opinion.  

Here in Kula, Maui at 510pm Friday evening, it was partly cloudy and near calm…with an air temperature of 74.1F degrees. The trades are forecast to continue across our island chain, with no interruption expected well into the future. These trade winds will blow generally in the moderately strong realms…with stronger gusts over the eastern islands. If we look at this satellite image, it shows generally clear skies upstream of the windward sides of the islands. In addition, there's a relatively small area of high cirrus clouds around locally as well, mostly over the central islands. If these clouds stick around through sunset…around the islands of Maui County.

As this recent trough of low pressure moves away to the west, our weather will improve. As it goes, we'll grade back into a more normal late August, trade wind weather pattern. As we move through the weekend, our atmosphere will dry out and stabilize, with good weather prevailing. Looking even further ahead, the new week ahead looks like it will have generally good conditions, with the trade winds blowing steadily, and drier than normal weather. I'll be back again early Saturday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise. I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Extra: a very interesting video…not for the faint of heart, although not violent

        World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Central Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Eastern Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

An area of disturbed weather remains evident a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec…with a low 20% chance of generating into a tropical cyclone. Development of this area into a tropical depression could occur during the next few days. Here's a satellite image showing this area offshore from southern Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean:  Tropical storm Isaac (9L) is in the Caribbean Sea…located about 40 miles east of Guantanamo, Cuba…moving northwest at 17 mph. This tropical cyclone is moving over Cuba, then across the Florida Keys into the Gulf of Mexico, towards the Florida panhandle as a hurricane later next Tuesday. The latest sustained wind speeds were 60 mph. Here's the NHC graphical track map, along with what the computer hurricane models are doing with Isaac. Here's a satellite image of Isaac.

The remnant low pressure system of post-tropical cyclone Joyce (10L) is located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This area of disturbed has a low 10% chance of redeveloping into a tropical depression.

Finally, there's that tropical disturbance about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is a medium 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours.

Here's a satellite image showing tropical storm Isaac (9L), post-tropical cyclone Joyce (10L)…and this area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic.

Western Pacific Ocean:  Typhoon Tembin (15W) remains active about 300 NM southwest of Taipei, Taiwan. Sustained winds are 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots. The JTWC shows Tembin offshore from the eastern China coast, to the east of Hong Kong. The forecast has Tembin continuing to do a loop to the southwest and south of Taiwan, then moving up along the east coast of that island. The extended forecast shows this weakening tropical cyclone heading northwards towards Shanghai, China as a tropical storm in about 5 days. Here's the JTWC graphical track map…showing this loop that this Tembin is taking.

Newly formed Typhoon Bolaven (16W) is active in the western Pacific…located about 190 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. Sustained winds are 125 knots, with gusts to near 150! knots! The JTWC keeps Bolaven over the ocean, although moving nearly right over Kadena AB on tonight, and then moving northwards just offshore from the west coast of South Korea…making a landfall along the southwest coast of North Korea into the Chinese mainland in about 3 days as a weakening typhoon. Here's the JTWC graphical track map.

South Pacific Ocean:   There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Interesting:   Increased rainfall and temperature due to climate change could bring benefits to South-East Asian agriculture, a study suggests, contradicting more common expectations that a warmer planet will reduce agricultural productivity in the region. Scientists from the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) have predicted that precipitation levels in vast areas of South-East Asia will remain stable, and most of the anticipated changes will occur over the sea, rather than over land.

In southern Vietnam and Cambodia, for instance, precipitation changes will be so minimal that farm production will barely be affected. In central and northern Myanmar, the increase will in fact help to raise crop output, as these are the driest areas in the region.

An increase in temperature may also increase crop yield in northern parts of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar, since crops such as rice and vegetables rely on regular rainfall and are most vulnerable to variability in weather. "At the regional scale, precipitation and temperature changes should benefit agricultural production, as significant precipitation increases will occur in the drier areas, whereas the steepest temperature rises will affect the coldest parts," says the study.

The study was carried out by IWMI scientists Guillaume Lacombe, Chu Thai Hoanh and Vladimir Smakhtin. Lacombe, the study’s lead author, told SciDev.Net that the findings will help the region's policymakers plan for food security — which is being threatened by climate change. "This study helps characterize and quantify climate change," said Lacombe.

"It could help [in sustaining] food security by showing where most drastic changes in rainfall patterns over the long term will occur. This should help the prioritization of areas of intervention for climate change adaptation." Lacombe said he and fellow hydrologists drew this conclusion through using PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), a regional climate modelling system designed to run on a Linux-based (an open source operating system) computer and to give detailed climate change projections in any region.

Despite optimistic results, Lacombe pointed out that climate change will have other impacts, such as rises in sea level, which could make the Mekong Delta in southwestern Vietnam more saline, leading to the destruction of rice farms. Climate change could also increase pest numbers and disease prevalence.

Lacombe said that policymakers in the region needed to consider climate projections obtained using several other climate models — in addition to the PRECIS model — before making any decisions about an appropriate response. He also stressed that PRECIS is a regional model and not a global model. The study concludes with a call for further studies to focus on how climate trends might interact with other environmental changes caused by the region's demographic and economic developments.