Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday:
Lihue, Kauai – 74
Honolulu airport, Oahu – 81
Kaneohe, Oahu – 79
Molokai airport – 82
Kahului airport, Maui 83 (record high temperature for the date…87F degrees – 1949, 1991)
Kona airport 80
Hilo airport, Hawaii – 76
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Wednesday evening:
Barking Sands, Kauai – 78
Hilo, Hawaii – 71
Haleakala Crater – 41 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea – 30 (near 13,800 feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…which is working only sometimes lately.
Aloha Paragraphs
Strengthening trade winds…some windward showers
As this weather map shows, we find a near 1030 millibar high pressure system located to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday evening. This high pressure cell has an elongated ridge that runs from the center west-southwest to the north and northwest of the state, which will keep our winds blowing. They have taken on a more east-southeast to even southeast orientation at the moment, although will gradually become more easterly trade winds through Friday, then strengthening from the trade wind direction then into the weekend.
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions Wednesday evening:
20 Port Allen, Kauai – ESE
27 Kahuku, Oahu – SE
27 Molokai – E
33 Kahoolawe – E
23 Lipoa, Maui – SE
24 Lanai – NE
25 South Point, Big Island – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean early Wednesday evening. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we find that the high and middle level clouds have now moved offshore to the east and southeast of the Big Island. We can use this looping satellite image to see this high level moisture streaming up from the southwest…just skimming the Big Island at the time of this writing. Otherwise, skies are clear to partly cloudy elsewhere, with some cloudy areas too. Checking out this looping radar image we see showers over the ocean, most of which are in the light to moderately heavy category, moving over the islands in places locally…carried along in the east to south wind flow.
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:
1.49 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.46 Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.25 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.70 Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.72 Glenwood, Big Island
Sunset Commentary: The long lasting high clouds are now exiting the state to the east, which will allowed more sunshine to beam down, especially along our leeward beaches. The shower and even heavy rain producing troughs of low pressure, which have been around for the last five days or so, are losing their influence over the Aloha state. Today should be a transition day for only the eastern side of the chain, with Maui County and the Big Island still prone for at least a few showers…which occurred especially during the heat of the afternoon hours. The western islands of Kauai and Oahu were mostly free of these showers.
The winds today are generally in the light to moderately strong range, coming in from south of east in many locations. As the trough(s) of low pressure shift further away, we’ll see our winds rebounding from the trade wind direction…now into Thursday. As we get into Friday, and even more so by the weekend…our trade winds will become quite strong and gusty again. As is often the case, we’ll see small craft wind advisory flags being hoisted over those windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island as this strengthening of the trade winds occurs. The latest forecasts keep these blustery trades blowing right on into next week. These winds will carry showers onto our windward sides, and perhaps even a few leeward areas on the smaller islands from Kauai to Molokai.
Prognosticating into the future, very likely without too much accuracy…the Navy’s NOGAPS computer model suggests that we'll have good weather, with the trade winds blowing steadily through about the 22nd of December. Checking with the GFS model, it shows the tail-end of a cold front bringing a few windward showers on the 17-18th, this weekend…and then again around the 21st and 22nd…next Thursday and Friday. We can’t put much stock into believing the models that far out into the future, although we can at least think in terms of nothing too very unusual coming our way. These things can change of course, especially as we get deeper into these last few days of deep autumn.
Here in Kihei, Maui at around 530pm Wednesday evening, it was partly cloudy…with some nice late in the day sunshine coming in from the west. The trade winds seem to be already quickening their pace, as they will be doing through the rest of this week. Those pesky high clouds have finally drifted off to the east, although they are still very close to the far eastern shore of the Big Island. ~~~ I just remembered that that I wanted to tell you of the Geminid Meteor Shower is still near the peak tonight into early Thursday morning. Early this morning while out walking, I saw three distinct, and nice shooting stars, within a short span of time. I wanted to check them out further but had to get back home to ready myself for work. I plan on getting up a bit earlier than usual, which will be very early indeed, to have time to spot a few more in the morning. Granted there is still quite a sizable moon up there at night, although that certainly didn't keep me from seeing those shooters. I'll let you know what I find in the morning, when I'll be back with your next new weather narrative around 530am HST Thursday. I hope you have a great Wednesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Interesting: By 2100, global climate change will modify plant communities covering almost half of Earth’s land surface and will drive the conversion of nearly 40 percent of land-based ecosystems from one major ecological community type – such as forest, grassland or tundra – toward another, according to a new NASA and university computer modeling study.
Researchers from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, Calif., investigated how Earth’s plant life is likely to react over the next three centuries as Earth’s climate changes in response to rising levels of human-produced greenhouse gases. Study results are published in the journal Climatic Change.
The model projections paint a portrait of increasing ecological change and stress in Earth’s biosphere, with many plant and animal species facing increasing competition for survival, as well as significant species turnover, as some species invade areas occupied by other species. Most of Earth’s land that is not covered by ice or desert is projected to undergo at least a 30 percent change in plant cover –changes that will require humans and animals to adapt and often relocate.
In addition to altering plant communities, the study predicts climate change will disrupt the ecological balance between interdependent and often endangered plant and animal species, reduce biodiversity and adversely affect Earth’s water, energy, carbon and other element cycles.
“For more than 25 years, scientists have warned of the dangers of human-induced climate change,” said Jon Bergengren, a scientist who led the study while a postdoctoral scholar at Caltech. “Our study introduces a new view of climate change, exploring the ecological implications of a few degrees of global warming. While warnings of melting glaciers, rising sea levels and other environmental changes are illustrative and important, ultimately, it’s the ecological consequences that matter most.”
When faced with climate change, plant species often must “migrate” over multiple generations, as they can only survive, compete and reproduce within the range of climates to which they are evolutionarily and physiologically adapted. While Earth’s plants and animals have evolved to migrate in response to seasonal environmental changes and to even larger transitions, such as the end of the last ice age, they often are not equipped to keep up with the rapidity of modern climate changes that are currently taking place. Human activities, such as agriculture and urbanization, are increasingly destroying Earth’s natural habitats, and frequently block plants and animals from successfully migrating.
To study the sensitivity of Earth’s ecological systems to climate change, the scientists used a computer model that predicts the type of plant community that is uniquely adapted to any climate on Earth. This model was used to simulate the future state of Earth’s natural vegetation in harmony with climate projections from 10 different global climate simulations. These simulations are based on the intermediate greenhouse gas scenario in the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
That scenario assumes greenhouse gas levels will double by 2100 and then level off. The U.N. report’s climate simulations predict a warmer and wetter Earth, with global temperature increases of 3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, about the same warming that occurred following the Last Glacial Maximum almost 20,000 years ago, except about 100 times faster. Under the scenario, some regions become wetter because of enhanced evaporation, while others become drier due to changes in atmospheric circulation.
The researchers found a shift of biomes, or major ecological community types, toward Earth’s poles – most dramatically in temperate grasslands and boreal forests – and toward higher elevations. Ecologically sensitive “hotspots” – areas projected to undergo the greatest degree of species turnover – that were identified by the study include regions in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, eastern equatorial Africa, Madagascar, the Mediterranean region, southern South America, and North America’s Great Lakes and Great Plains areas.
The largest areas of ecological sensitivity and biome changes predicted for this century are, not surprisingly, found in areas with the most dramatic climate change: in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, particularly along the northern and southern boundaries of boreal forests.
“Our study developed a simple, consistent and quantitative way to characterize the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, while assessing and comparing the implications of climate model projections,” said JPL co-author Duane Waliser. “This new tool enables scientists to explore and understand interrelationships between Earth’s ecosystems and climate and to identify regions projected to have the greatest degree of ecological sensitivity.”
“In this study, we have developed and applied two new ecological sensitivity metrics – analogs of climate sensitivity – to investigate the potential degree of plant community changes over the next three centuries,” said Bergengren. “The surprising degree of ecological sensitivity of Earth’s ecosystems predicted by our research highlights the global imperative to accelerate progress toward preserving biodiversity by stabilizing Earth’s climate.”
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