Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:
Lihue, Kauai – 86
Honolulu airport, Oahu – 88 (record for Thursday – 92 in 1987, 1989, 1985)
Kaneohe, Oahu – 82
Molokai airport – 84
Kahului airport, Maui – 87
Kona airport 85
Hilo airport, Hawaii – 87
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Thursday evening:
Barking Sands, Kauai – 86
Hilo, Hawaii – 75
Haleakala Crater – 46 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 39 (over 13,500 feet on the Big Island)
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:
0.69 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.15 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.71 Puu Kukui, Maui
1.73 Piihonua, Big Island
Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a 1025 millibar high pressure system to the north of our islands. Our local trade winds will remain active through Saturday.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,500 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Here's a tropical cyclone tracking map for the eastern and central Pacific.
Aloha Paragraphs
Trade winds continuing…some increase in windward
showers on the Big Island, perhaps Maui too…otherwise
pretty normal through the weekend into next week.
The trade winds will continue through the rest of the week, generally in the light to moderately strong realms…then increase some going into next week. Glancing at this weather map, we find a moderately strong 1025 millibar high pressure system to the north of the islands Thursday night. This high pressure cell and its associated ridges will provide steady trade winds. Our local winds may ease up a little…especially between Friday and Saturday. As we move into Sunday and next Monday onwards, the trade winds will be running about normal for this time of year.
Our trade winds will remain active…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts (mph), along with directions Thursday evening:
31 Port Allen, Kauai – NE
25 Honolulu, Oahu – NE
29 Molokai – NE
31 Kahoolawe – ESE
31 Kahului – NE
20 Lanai – NE
31 South Point, Big Island – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Thursday night. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we find just a few low level cumulus and stratocumulus clouds coming into our windward sides, especially around the Big Island and Maui. There's also a patch of clouds near Kauai and Niihau, which are trying to bring a few showers to that side of the island chain too. We can use this looping satellite image to see high cirrus clouds offshore to our northwest…with more of that located not far to the south. Checking out this looping radar image we see generally light showers here and there, coming into our windward sides locally. We can see a few moderately heavy showers south of the state as well…over the ocean at the time of this writing.
Sunset Commentary: There’s not a lot of change from this morming's weather outlook, with perhaps the most notable difference being the amount of precipitation being carried our way by former tropical cyclone Eugene…which should be less than previously discussed. As pointed out here on Wednesday, the bulk of whatever is left of this moisture source is thinning out, and going to move by to our south. The northern fringe of this remnant moisture may clip the Big Island, and perhaps Maui through Friday night or early Saturday morning.
The other aspect that was going to have some possible bearing on this rainfall…was the presence of an upper level low pressure system edging in over the state from the west. This low with its cold air aloft could enhance whatever showers that around then. The computer models however show this low isn't expected to come so close, and it may remain a good distance to the west of Kauai. As the trade winds will continue blowing however, there will still be showers falling at times along our windward sides on all the islands. If the winds calm down enough, and this low aloft were to edge a bit closer to the state, this could still have some influence on enhancing our local precipitation…time will tell.
~~~ Here in Kihei, Maui at around 530pm Thursday evening, skies were clear to partly cloudy, with the trade wind breezes still pretty stiff. There were gusts to near 30 mph in most of the windier locations early this evening. The high clouds are mostly gone now, with just a few streaks here and there, especially near the Big Island and south from there. Today was a nice day, with lots of sunshine beaming down most everywhere. I expect a decent night, leading to another good day on Friday. There will be those showers that will increase modestly along our windward sides, most notably on the Big Island and Maui. By the way, we have not only a full moon this weekend, but also that Perseid meteor shower that will be around too. These two things don't typically go together well (too much moonlight), but we'll still be able to see quite a few streakers flying across our night skies, especially Friday night when this activity peaks. Alright, that's all I have to share at this point, and will be taking the drive back upcountry now, to Kula. I'll be up dark and early Friday morning however, having your next new weather narrative from paradise ready for you around 530am HST. I hope you have a great Thursday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Extra: Perseid Meteor Shower to peak this weekend
Interesting: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had released its most recent report in 2007. It forecasts that the Arctic Ocean will have an ice-free summer by the year 2100. However, that finding has been contradicted by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). They say the Arctic summer will be ice-free several decades earlier, within many people’s lifetimes.
The IPCC has been criticized by environmental advocacy groups for being too conservative with its predictions. Some say it forecasts according to the "lowest common denominator" of climate research. However, many policy makers look to it when making climate-related decisions, so the value of the IPCC report is extremely high. The MIT team believes it is the value of the IPCC reports that makes it so important to be accurate, and IPCC failed to meet that accuracy according to MIT’s own research.
The MIT research team was led by Pierre Rampal, a postdoc in the Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences. The research was conducted in conjunction with France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique and Recherches Meteorologiques. They found that the IPCC substantially underestimated trends in Arctic sea-ice thinning and drift.
Rampal believes the IPCC models focus too much on temperature fluctuations, which are important, and not enough on mechanical forces. These forces include wind and ocean currents which can break up ice and cause it to move. Once the ice breaks up, it acts much different than if it were part of a massive ice sheet. Broken ice will melt faster and is able to move to warmer waters where it will melt even faster. Warmer temperatures play a major role in thinning the ice, making it more breakable.
Much of the broken ice finds its way to the Fram Strait, the wide area of ocean between eastern Greenland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. Once it contacts the warmer waters to the south, the ice will melt rapidly.
Therefore, the MIT team believes the Arctic is in a sort of feedback loop. Warmer temperatures cause thinner ice. Thinner ice breaks easier. Broken up ice will move more quickly. The broken ice will move to southern latitudes and melt much faster. However, they also explain another feedback loop which may counterbalance the ice loss. Large cracks in the winter ice cover will help create new ice because when cold air comes in contact with the liquid ocean, the water will refreeze, creating a large ice sheet than before.
Interesting2: In an extract from his new book the Jolly Pilgrim, Peter Baker argues that a Gaian consciousness is slowly emerging out of our efforts to overcome climate change and other environmental challenges. The human race has a problem in its relationship with the environment. That problem is an intrinsic consequence of running a technological civilization on the surface of a planet and it's one we were destined to face since long before perceiving it. Now that we do perceive it, and everybody's talking about it, we should start being more realistic about the historical context of those discussions.
All life forms exploit their surroundings to get what they need to survive. Daisies need sunlight, squirrels need acorns, whales need krill. We humans, however, have always been rather more ambitious about what constitutes our needs and, for 100,000 years, those ambitions and their side effects have been inexorably increasing.
By the time anatomically modern humans were spreading across the globe after 60,000 BCE, already no other animal could stand against us. We'd become the invincible global super-predator. Snuffing out species. Re-ordering food chains. Distorting ecosystems.
Agriculture increased our impact on the world to a new scale. Watercourses were redirected, forests cleared and marshes drained. Systematic land alteration on a massive scale. The face of the world artificially reworked.
The Industrial Revolution intensified our influence once more as we twisted minerals into artifacts, scorched fossils into electricity, shaped rock and clay into cloud-skimming edifices and began constructing the physical trappings of this grand civilization of ours.
The stage for this drama has been the surface of planet Earth, the climatic and biological systems of which are fantastically complex, poorly understood and intertwined through an assortment of mysterious and subtle feedback mechanisms. Everywhere those systems are being modified by the newfangled civilization sitting among them, and every day that civilization grows larger and more elaborate.
To set our environmental situation in fundamental terms: this universe, and in particular this planet, is set up in such a way that once a species of hyper-intelligent tool-using omnivores (with apparently bottomless ingenuity and imagination) gets going their activities are bound, sooner or later, to reach such a magnitude that they freak out the constitution of the planet on which they live.
Life on earth
We didn't choose to be here. The long chain of technological innovations that brought us to this point was not premeditated. No one sat down and planned the invention of agriculture or the Industrial Revolution.
However, now we're here there can be no turning back. We don't have the option of returning to our pre-agricultural days of hunting, gathering and living off nature's rhythms. Population densities far exceed levels that can be nourished through such practices. Hunter-gatherer peoples live at average population densities of less than one person per square kilometer. Population densities in the heavily populated regions of the world are now well over 100 people per square kilometer (and reach 800 people per square kilometer in places like the Ganges plain).
With this is mind, some have sometimes suggested the Earth has more humans than she can sustain and that a population crash is both inevitable and necessary. As one with an optimistic view of the problem-solving panache of humankind, I think we can come up with a more creative way forward than that.
In essence we've naively constructed a civilization that is not environmentally sustainable. Now we have to re-craft it into one that is. It's an enormous job, but in the early twenty-first century of my journey it was well under way.
Off the Australian east coast, whales that had recently been hunted towards oblivion were being fawned over from tourist boats. In the Amazon, eco-tourism was turning conservation into tourist dollars. Businessmen, politicians and environmentalists were wrestling to define rules for resource extraction while, in Quito, consultants struggled to interpret them. North American students were studying the chemistry of ecosystems. Venture capitalists were investing tens of billions of dollars to pin down the science of renewable power and the business models to exploit it. In 20 years global warming had gone from an obscure environmentalist concern to a signature issue of international politics, and, across the world, a debate about energy was beginning to rage.
A technological civilization is not anathema to environmental sustainability, even if it has a growing economy. It's true that the character of our civilization's hardware and logistics over the past few centuries has meant that the size of economies has been proportional to their environmental side effects, but it won't always be that way. The nature of tomorrow's economy will be radically different from today's and, ultimately, its size is a subjective thing. Economic growth doesn't have to mean ever-bigger factories. A firm of lawyers generates more economic output (and a lot more hot air) than a polluting mill, even though it has lower carbon emissions.
There will always be physical parameters constraining some things, such as the amount of fresh water and certain elements available, but using such resources elegantly and effectively has only just commenced. The logistics of civilization can, in the future, become efficient in ways so far undreamed of. One day we may establish companies that use geothermal energy to make recycling machines from recycled materials and have very low carbon emissions indeed.
Changing civilization so that it works in harmony with the environment isn't impossible, it's just a very big problem.
Why we need environmental sciences
Right now everyone's talking about climate change. It's come to light that dumping large volumes of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere for 200 years may have affected the atmosphere. This fact is causing a lot of angst.
First of all, let's not forget just how extraordinarily inconvenient this is. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the basic waste product of nearly all our energy and transportation systems. At this point in history, expanding the capacity of those systems will dramatically improve the life quality of billions of humans. In addition, reducing carbon emissions requires a planet full of self-absorbed Homo sapiens to act in a coordinated way that is against their immediate best interests.
Given all that, achieving such reductions was always going to be extremely difficult and involve long, protracted and acrimonious global arguments about what to do (precisely like the arguments now raging).
Ultimately, what are the possibilities?
Around 18,000 years ago, what is now London stood at the foot of an ice sheet that stretched to the pole. Scotland, directly to the north, lay under two kilometers of the stuff. Sea levels were 100 meters lower than they are today.
Around 74,000 years ago, a super-volcano exploded on the Indonesian island of Sumatra, throwing 3,000 cubic kilometers of rock into the stratosphere, turning south-east Asia into a giant firestorm and blanketing India with a meter of ash.
Around 130,000 years ago, hippopotami found it warm enough to splash about in the river Thames, where glaciers, and one day London, would later stand.
If you go back tens of millions of years you come to the great extinction events: gargantuan meteorites slamming into the planet, consigning it to millenia of ecological pandemonium at a time.
Stuff like that happens. The Earth gets over it.
The worst-case scenarios of climate change go something like this: the Siberian tundra releases its methane stores into the atmosphere, global warming spirals out of control, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt (a process which takes centuries) and sea levels rise by tens of meters over that period.
If that happens (and it might), it will be extremely unpleasant. Some of the richest, most heavily populated and fertile parts of the world (including most of the really big cities) will be inundated. Billions of people will be displaced and there will be a prolonged period of global chaos and disruption. But it will not constitute the end of the world, or even the end of civilization. It will just be really nasty.
So we're in a race. The magnitude of our civilization inexorably increases, while we continuously look for ways to mitigate its side effects, so Earth doesn't squish us. The effort with which we run this race will be a key test of our mettle as a species and heavily influence how much fun the next few centuries are going to be.
But, whatever fate awaits humankind, one million years from now Earth will be a place of forests, lakes and animals. When we talk of destroying (or saving) the planet, we're taking ourselves too seriously.
Beyond climate change
Human civilization has reached a bottleneck. We've now entered a period of history during which our relationship with the environment is unstable. It is a period that will see some level of climate change, ecosystem disruption and species loss. What is unknown is how deep and traumatic this period will be.
CO2-induced climate change may (or may not) turn out to be our environmental Achilles' heel. But even after it's eventually brought under control, there will be other mechanisms for environmental catastrophe waiting in the wings that we don't currently perceive.
We're nowhere near understanding all the long-term effects of running a technological civilisation on the surface of a planet. Three hundred years ago, who would have guessed that an overarching problem for humanity would soon be to manage the machinery of civilisation so as to limit the release of certain gases? We didn't even know CO2 existed until the eighteenth century.
This learning curve will probably take centuries (at least) to climb. Most of the environmental sciences are at a nascent stage. Our understanding of them will seem laughably primitive in the lifetimes of people already born. The terms we use to make sense of these problems – terms such as carbon footprint, global warming and sustainable development – are the opening syllables of a conversation that has only just begun.
Even once we've re-crafted our civilisation to work in harmony with Earth's ecosphere, we will stand only at the threshold of yet further challenges. For this is a world on which solar cycles, ice ages and mobile coastlines are an implicit part of the gig. CO2-induced climate change is not our great collective environmental challenge – it's the first in a long line of complicated learning experiences.
Once you've killed every great whale in the sea, nothing similar is going to re-evolve any time in the next ten million years. Once an ecosystem completely vanishes, so do the species which rely on it. Many of the matters over which we humans fret are not, in the grandest scheme of things, a terribly big deal. Others are a very big deal indeed.
Even 1,000 years from now, the hell those foolish twenty-first-century humans put themselves through because sports utility vehicles (SUVs) pushed their ego buttons may just be one more calamity in this epic multi-generational drama of ours. But every species consigned to oblivion is a facet of the world which cannot be remade, even in the most distant future of humankind, no matter how many times the seas rise and fall. In attempting to attain a sustainable relationship with our host planet, let's take the long view. There are uncounted generations to damn us for what's been destroyed.
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