Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:
Lihue, Kauai – 81
Honolulu airport, Oahu – 86 (record for high Thursday 89 – 1979, 1996)
Kaneohe, Oahu – 79
Molokai airport – 85
Kahului airport, Maui – 86 (record for high Thursday 90 – 1953)
Kona airport – 84
Hilo airport, Hawaii – 82
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Thursday evening:
Barking Sands, Kauai – 84
Hilo, Hawaii – 76
Haleakala Crater – 52 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 41 (over 13,500 feet on the Big Island)
Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:
0.07 N. Wailua Ditch, Kauai
0.33 Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.07 Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.37 Kealakekua, Big Island
Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a dissipating frontal boundary to our north. At the same time we find high pressure systems to our north through northeast. Our local winds will become Friday into Saturday.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,500 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.
Aloha Paragraphs
Strengthening trade winds…a few windward showers
Our local winds will be on the rise from the trade wind direction now into Friday…through the rest of this week. Glancing at this weather map, we find high pressure systems located to our north through northeast, while a weakening cold front is dissipating to our north. As we move into Friday and the weekend, the winds will become stronger and gusty, necessitating small craft wind advisories in those windiest locations around the state…which will start as of 6am Friday morning.
Our winds will be increasingly strong into the day Friday…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts, along with directions Thursday evening:
27 Port Allen, Kauai – ESE
20 Honolulu, Oahu – NE
16 Molokai – NE
24 Kahoolawe – ESE
30 Kahului, Maui – NE
09 Lanai – NE
25 South Point – NE
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Thursday night. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we see clear to partly cloudy skies over and around the islands. There are some high cirrus clouds to our west through southwest as well. We can use this looping satellite image to see a counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure system far to our west. This weather feature will push some high cirrus clouds towards us, although it may stay to our west now. Checking out this looping radar image shows very few showers falling anywhere in the island area…and most of those are over the ocean offshore from the islands.
Sunset Commentary: There will be cold fronts in the north central Pacific, although they will all stay well north of Hawaii…up in the middle latitudes, or the southern polar zones. This will allow high pressure systems to dominate the area to our north through northeast. These will be able spin out our typical late spring trade winds well into the future.
We’ve final arrived into what looks very likely to be a long-lived classic trade wind weather pattern. Given that we’re well into our driest time of the year, now through all of June, we’re not apt to see all that much in the way of precipitation. All of the above will match climatology to quite closely…for the time being at least.
The trade winds increased today as expected, and became locally rather strong here in Kihei this afternoon. Looking out the windows here at around 530pm, it's mostly clear in all directions. I anticipate that tonight and Friday, and likely right on into the weekend will remain very pleasant…albeit it rather windy in many places. As noted above, the small craft wind advisory goes into effect early Friday morning for those windiest areas around Maui and the Big Island.
I'm about to take the drive back upcountry to Kula, which is always nice. I've always enjoyed driving, ever since I was a young man just starting out on the roads of southern California. I typically listen to the news on National Public Radio as I get into those lovely pasture lands between Pukalani and Kula. I'll get home and immediately change my clothes for my evening walk, before fixing dinner. I'll be back on my home computer early Friday morning with your next new weather narrative. I hope you have a lovely Thursday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
* 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
* 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
* 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
Climate factors considered for this outlook are:
* The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
* Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
* La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.
“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today announced that climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 5 percent probability of an above normal season, a 25 percent probability of a near normal season and a 70 percent probability of a below normal season.
Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
The main climate factors influencing this year’s Eastern Pacific outlook are:
* Ongoing conditions, such as increased wind shear, that have been suppressing eastern Pacific hurricane seasons since 1995, and
* A high likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) during the peak months (July-September) of the season, but with lingering La Niña impacts into the summer.
“Regardless of this outlook, NOAA urges people in the Eastern Pacific to prepare for the 2011 hurricane season and remain vigilant throughout the season – it only takes one hurricane to cause a lot of damage and loss of life,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service.
The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where, or when any of these storms may hit land.
Eastern Pacific tropical storms most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer months.
Also, during any given season, two to three tropical storms can affect western Mexico or Central America. Residents, businesses and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always prepare prior to each and every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal hurricane outlook.
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center today announced that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year. NOAA issued its outlook at a news conference today to urge Hawaii residents to be fully prepared for the onset of the hurricane season, which begins on June 1.
“Now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season in the central Pacific,” said Ray Tanabe, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service. “Last year we had a quiet season, but it’s definitely not time to let our guard down.”
The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For 2011, the outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of a below normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near normal season, and a five percent chance of an above normal season.
We expect 2-3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
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