Hawaiian Islands weather details & Aloha paragraphs / April 27-28, 2011

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday:

Lihue, Kauai –                    83
Honolulu airport, Oahu –     86 (record for the date: 87 – 1996)
Kaneohe, Oahu –                80
Molokai airport –                 M
Kahului airport, Maui –        86 (record for the date: 92 – 1953)
Kona airport –                    84
Hilo airport, Hawaii –           81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Wednesday evening:

Port Allen, Kauai – 86
Hilo, Hawaii – 76

Haleakala Crater –     52 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 39 (over 13,500 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals Wednesday evening:

0.66    Hanalei, Kauai
0.31    Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.00    Molokai
0.00    Lanai 
0.00    Kahoolawe
0.03    Oheo Gulch, Maui
0.29    Mountain View, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a 1031 millibar high pressure system to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, with a second 1025 millibar high pressure cell to the northeast…with a weak trough of low pressure to our north. Our local trade winds will continue in the light to moderately strong category.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,500 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season ended November 30th here in the central Pacific…and begins again June 1st.

 Aloha Paragraphs

Trade winds…with clouds leading to localized showers at times
 
 
 

Our winds will be light, locally stronger through Friday, easing back some by the weekend…then picking up again next week.  Glancing at this weather map, we find high pressure systems located to the north and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands…which is the source of our trades. The isobars on the weather map show the current light to moderately strong breezes to be out of the east for the most part. An upper level trough of low pressure edging our way Saturday, lasting for several days, will cause our trade winds to falter. As the trough moves away, by next Tuesday or so…our trade wind speeds will rebound through most of the week.

Our local winds will remain from the trade wind direction…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts, along with directions Wednesday evening:

22 mph       Port Allen, Kauai – ENE
23              Honolulu, Oahu – ENE 
25              Molokai – NE   
32              Kahoolawe – ESE  
28              Kahului, Maui – ENE
13              Lanai Airport – NE 
29              South Point, Big Island – NNE 

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Wednesday night.  Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we see variable clouds over and around the islands. There are multi-leveled clouds, from high and middle, down to the lower cumulus clouds. We can use this looping satellite image to see the high clouds continuing to gradually drifting eastward, although they are still around as we head into the night hours. Meanwhile, there is a big stream of high clouds moving by to our south at the same time. Checking out this looping radar image shows just a few showers falling over the ocean offshore from the islands.

Sunset Commentary: Here in Kihei, Maui at around 530pm Wednesday evening, skies were partly cloudy. If you had a chance to read through the paragraphs above, you will know that the computer models are keeping the trade winds around through the next week…although starting to slow them down as we head towards the weekend time frame. The computer models suggest an upper level trough of low pressure will edge over our area. This in turn could prompt an increase in our local rainfall, and slow the trade winds down a notch or two. Those same models then show the trade winds picking right back up again next week. 

~~~ This time of the year it’s pretty difficult to buck climatology, which is the longer term averaging of weather. The end of April typically finds moderately strong trade winds blowing…which becomes even more likely as we push into May. It’s not out of the question to have the trade winds fade away, as we’ve seen it happen in the past. It gets muggy very quickly when the trades falter this time of year though, with that strengthening springtime sunshine beaming down…without the tempering effect of the breezes. It looks like we’ll see generally typical trade wind weather through the end of this work week. This commonly brings at least some showers to our windward coasts and slopes, especially during the night and early morning hours.

The models continue to suggest that an upper level trough of low pressure will edge in near us this weekend. This would have a couple of primary influences, including a downward trend in our wind speeds…and an increase in afternoon upcountry showers. It’s still a little too early to know precisely how light the winds will become, and how much precipitation will fall. The way it looks now, the winds could calm down quite a bit, and if enough cold air filters over our area, associated with this trough…we could see some locally heavy rainfall falling. Earlier in the week the models were hinting at a possible thunderstorm…which isn’t completely out of the question at this point. These lighter winds and extra rainfall might extend into Monday, although it wouldn’t be too long after that, that the trade winds would come rushing back into our area again. 



~~~ I'll be back again early Thursday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise, I hope you have a great Wednesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting:  In many developed nations, increased energy efficiency has effectively lowered emissions of carbon dioxide. However, the cuts in advanced economies are merely an illusion, as manufacturing and dirty industries have moved offshore to the developing world such as China and India. These countries produce goods cheaply which Western consumers like. But that cheap price is a reflection of not only lower wages for workers, but also lax pollution controls and environmental standards.

Developed countries have been reducing their carbon emissions for some years now, some in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is a non-binding international agreement to lower the production greenhouse gas emissions. However, the protocol makes no mention of the consumption of greenhouse gas emissions.

In the current state of global trade, advanced economies, with a few exceptions, are primarily based on imports. A study to determine the extent of outsourced carbon emissions was conducted by the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, Norway.

According to lead researcher Glen Peters, "Our study shows for the first time that emissions from increased production of internationally traded products have more than offset the emissions reductions achieved under the Kyoto Protocol…this suggests that the current focus on territorial emissions in a subset of countries may be ineffective at reducing global emissions without some mechanisms to monitor and report emissions from the production of imported goods and services."

The study found that developed nations reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by two percent from 1990 to 2008. However, when imports are factored in, those emissions actually increased seven percent during that time. If Russia and Ukraine are excluded due to their economic collapse in the 90's, that increase in emissions jumps up to twelve percent. The largest exporter of emissions by far is China.

It is the home to 75 percent of the developed world’s outsourced emissions. China's rapid economic growth has stemmed from its intensely export-based economy. It is currently the largest emitter of CO2. However, when export-based emissions are not factored it, its carbon footprint drops dramatically, putting it well behind the United States.

It is not enough for nations to merely cut their own emissions and claim that they are doing something to slow down climate change. Emissions must be calculated from the consumption side rather than the production side. In a globalized economy, those emissions can be very hard to quantify. It is best for each individual consumer to stay aware when they are purchasing goods. At the same time, exporting nations must also be held responsible for lowering their emissions.

Interesting2: President Barack Obama on Tuesday urged world oil producers to lift crude output, as he sought to deflect public anger over high gasoline prices that has hurt his popularity among voters. U.S. motor fuel prices have become a heated political issue after pushing toward $4 a gallon.

Gasoline futures hit 33-month highs on Tuesday. The rising prices at the pump are fueling voter discontent with Obama's leadership, opinion polls show, and could harm his re-election chances in 2012. "They need to increase supplies," Obama told CBS affiliate WTKR in Hampton Roads, Virginia.

"We are in a lot of conversations with major oil producers like Saudi Arabia," he separately told WXYZ television in Detroit. Calling on producers to pump more oil during times of high crude prices was a strategy also used by the administrations of former presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

Obama, until now, had focused on trying to reduce oil demand, but he made clear in his comments on Tuesday that increasing output was also part of the solution. "It's the first time the Obama administration has done this, but it's not because they have figured out any new strategy on trying to fight high oil prices," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

"It's because it's the first time they've seen a 30 percent jump in oil prices over a few months." Repeating concern that energy traders might be stoking higher prices, the Obama administration's top law enforcement official, Attorney General Eric Holder, told reporters he saw some "disturbing" things in the energy markets.

He said this justified the formation of a task force unveiled last week to probe possible fraud and manipulation of gasoline prices. Earlier on Tuesday, the president sent a letter to Congress urging it to end tax breaks for oil and gas companies.

Interesting3: For the northeastern United States, the new fishing year officially begins on May 1. This year will see the fishing season opened to more small-vessel owners and catch limits will be raised in response to rebounding fish stocks. Fishing has been an integral part of the economy of New England coastal communities, and now more fishermen will have the opportunity to partake.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an agency under the US Department of Commerce, catch limits will be raised for twelve important groundfish stocks. "The increase in catch limits is a result of the rebuilding process underway and is one of many steps we are taking to grow economic opportunity in diverse, working waterfronts that support fishing jobs in the Northeast," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA Administrator.

The affected fish include different species of cod, flounder, redfish, hake, plaice, and halibut. Last year, New England fisheries adopted a sector management system, where fishermen were given a specific amount of fish to catch when they choose and in more areas. This enabled them to select healthy fish stocks such as haddock.

The prior system, known as a days-at-sea plan, allowed fishermen to spend a set number of days in certain areas. Now, both management systems are available, and both will be operational. More and more fishermen are adopting the sector-based management system.

Fish stock rebuilding efforts have proved successful to date, allowing more fishermen to partake and catch more. However, regulations are still in place to ensure fishing rates do not to return to the unsustainable levels of the past. One of the fish species, the Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, has its catch limit increased due to effective negotiations with Canada.

US fishermen can now catch an additional 44 percent, an increase of 2.5 million pounds. Other NOAA actions for the upcoming New England fishing season include approvals for four new permit bank sectors for small-scale fishermen. They also closed off a small area in the southern Gulf of Maine for three months because it is spawning grounds for Gulf of Maine cod.

NOAA will also delay for two years the requirement for the fishing industry to cover costs of dockside monitoring. This is to allow businesses to reduce their operating costs while they adjust to the new management system. In 2013, companies will be fully responsible for monitoring their catches.

Interesting4: Planes were grounded all over Europe when the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in Iceland last year. But no one knew if the no fly zone was really necessary. And the only way to find out would have been to fly a plane through the ash cloud — a potentially fatal experiment.

Now a team of researchers from the University of Copenhagen and the University of Iceland have developed a protocol for rapidly providing air traffic authorities with the data they need for deciding whether or not to ground planes next time ash threatens airspace safety.

A study by the teams of Professors Susan Stipp from the Nano-Science Centre of the University of Copenhagen and Sigurdur Gislason from the University of Iceland is reported this week in the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA).

Grounding planes proven to be well founded

Volcanic ash could crash planes if the particles are small enough to travel high and far, if they are sharp enough to sandblast the windows and bodies of airplanes, or if they melt inside jet engines. The ash from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption was dangerous on all counts, so the authorities certainly made the right decision in April 2010.

That's one conclusion from the Copenhagen/Iceland paper but Professor Stipp thinks the team's most important contribution is a method for quickly assessing future ash. "I was surprised to find nothing in the scientific literature or on the web about characterising ash to provide information for aviation authorities. So we decided to do something about it", explains Stipp.

Some 10 million travellers were affected by the ash plume, which cost an estimated two and a half billion Euros. "Aviation authorities were sitting on a knife-edge at the centre of a huge dilemma. If they closed airspace unnecessarily, people, families, businesses and the economy would suffer, but if they allowed air travel, people and planes could be put at risk, perhaps with tragic consequences," says Professor Stipp.

So Susan Stipp phoned her colleague and friend in Reykjavik, Siggi Gislason and while the explosive eruptions were at their worst, he and a student donned protective clothing, collected ash as it fell and sent some samples to Denmark.

"In the Nano-Science Centre at the University of Copenhagen, we have analytical facilities and a research team that are unique in the world for characterising natural nanoparticles and their reaction with air, water and oil." explains Professor Susan Stipp.

All vital information ready within 24 hours

The newly developed protocol for assessing future ash can provide information for safety assessment in less than 24 hours. Within an hour of receiving the samples, scientists can tell how poisonous they are for the animals and people living closest to the eruption. Half a day enables them to predict the danger of sandblasting on aircraft, and assess the risk of fouling jet engines.

Within a day they can tell the size of the particles, providing data for predicting where and how far the ash cloud will spread. Susan Stipp hopes that because of the analysis protocol, aviation authorities will not face such an impossible dilemma next time fine-grained ash threatens passenger safety.

"Some of the analytical instruments needed are standard equipment in Earth science departments and some are commonly used by materials scientists, so with our protocol, aviation authorities ought to be able to get fast, reliable answers," concludes Professor Stipp.