Hawaiian Islands weather details & Aloha paragraphs / April 13-14, 2011

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday:

Lihue, Kauai –                    81
Honolulu airport, Oahu –      81
Kaneohe, Oahu –                82
Molokai airport –                 79
Kahului airport, Maui –         86
Kona airport –                     82
Hilo airport, Hawaii –           81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Wednesday evening:

Kahului, Maui – 81F
Hilo, Hawaii – 77

Haleakala Crater –     54 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 45 (over 13,500 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals Wednesday evening:

0.17    Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.87    Kahuku, Oahu
0.02    Molokai
0.00    Lanai 
0.00    Kahoolawe
0.38    Kepuni, Maui
0.35    Pohakuloa Keamuku, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a 1030 millibar high pressure systems far to the northeast of Hawaii. Our winds will blow from the south to southeast Thursday and Friday…gradually lighter in strength. 

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,500 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season ended November 30th here in the central Pacific…and begins again June 1st.

 Aloha Paragraphs

Generally clear mornings, locally cloudy afternoons,
especially over the leeward interior slopes. There
will be some showers…a few of which will be generous.
The winds will be lighter from the south and southeast.  
Volcanic haze will become an issue as we move forward. 
 
 
 

South to southeast breezes will blow through the rest of this week, perhaps even into the first part of next week.  Glancing at this weather map, we find a 1030 millibar high pressure system far to the northeast of our islands…with its associated ridge of high pressure extending southwest over Oahu. Looking at the low level wind flow around our islands, we find our winds blowing from the south to southeast. A cold front has pushed our trade winds away, which aren’t expected to return, at least in any significant way…until about this time next week. 

Lighter breezes now…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts, along with directions early Wednesday evening:

21 mph       Barking Sands, Kauai – S 
14              Waianae, Oahu – S
04              Molokai 
17              Kahoolawe – SE
13              Hana, Maui – SE
04              Lanai Airport 
24                South Point, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Wednesday evening. This large University of Washington satellite image shows a slow moving cold front just to the west of Kauai…as well as some high cirrus clouds further away towards the southeast.  Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we see patches of lower level clouds being carried through our area on the south and southeast wind flow. We can use this looping satellite image to see the bright frontal clouds to our west edging closer to the Kauai side of the island chain. Checking out this looping radar image shows just a few showers around, at least at the time of this writing.

As the winds have made their turn to the south and southeast, and eased up for the most part in strength, we find ourselves in a convective weather pattern…which should last through the rest of this week.  If this happens as it typically does, we’ll find daytime onshore sea breezes. Then at night, the cooler air will drain back down to the coast as a land breeze. If there aren’t any high or middle level clouds around, mornings will be generally clear. Then, as the sea breezes blow moisture from the ocean upslope during the days, clouds will form over the mountain slopes late morning through the evening hours. These clouds will lead to localized showers along our leeward upcountry sections. Some of these showers may turn out to be rather generous on some of the islands. As the cold front edges up closer to Kauai as well, that island or even Oahu…will likely see showers arriving over the next couple of days.  

~~~ Here in Kula, Maui at around 535pm Wednesday evening, our skies are partly to mostly cloudy. There's still quite a bit of volcanic haze around too…which I anticipate will become even thicker over the next several days. The convection this afternoon didn't lead to any showers in the upcountry area, although the clouds do look thicker and tending towards being more shower prone. I suspect that by Thursday afternoon we'll see some afternoon showers breaking out. The Kauai end of the island chain will begin to see some showers arriving from the slowly approaching cold front soon too. I'll be back early Thursday morning with plenty more updated and refreshed weather information your reading pleasure, I hope you have a great Wednesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting: The future of nuclear power was bleak, even before the Fukushima disaster, said energy expert Mycle Schneider Wednesday at a press conference in Berlin, where he previewed an upcoming Worldwatch report on the outlook of nuclear power. "The industry was arguably on life support before Fukushima.

When the history of this industry is written, Fukushima is likely to introduce its final chapter," said Schneider, the lead author of the new report, which was previewed in Berlin today at an event hosted by the Heinrich Böll Foundation.

Preliminary findings from the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2010-201: Nuclear Power in a Post-Fukushima World, which will be released around the 25th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, point to a bleak future for the nuclear industry.

Nuclear reactor startups have been in steady decline since the 1980s, with only China bucking the trend in recent years. China, which has frozen all new projects since the Fukushima crisis started, already has 4.5 times more installed wind than nuclear capacity and in 2011 will likely generate more electricity from wind than from its reactors.

Meanwhile, world total nuclear generating capacity has remained roughly steady for the past 20 years, while the actual output has declined slightly. In contrast, output from wind, solar, and biofuels have experienced tremendous growth over the same period.

Furthermore, many of the world's nuclear plants are fast approaching the end of their viable lifespan, increasing the likelihood that the share of electricity from nuclear power will decline in the coming decades. The Fukushima disaster will make it increasingly difficult for operators to argue for lifetime extensions.

Interesting2: An abundant source of U.S. natural gas widely seen as a cleaner alternative to oil and coal is in reality the fossil fuel that creates the most greenhouse gas emissions, a study concludes. The paper led by Cornell University ecology professor Robert Howarth raised howls of protest from the gas industry, which said the document was political.

The study contends that so much methane escapes from the extraction of shale gas over the life of a well that it allows more heat-trapping greenhouse gas into the atmosphere than coal.

The report acknowledged that natural gas is cleaner to burn than other fuels but that greater pollution derives from leakage, whether accidental or purposely designed to relieve well pressure. Improved technology could solve the problem but Howarth in an interview doubted whether that was economical considering stubbornly low natural gas prices.

A North American boom in the production of shale gas, billed as an alternative to foreign oil, has depressed gas prices even while oil has soared. Industry representatives criticized the work as sloppy and incomplete advocacy against shale gas.

The shale boom previously had raised more alarm from environmentalists because of the threat of chemicals seeping into ground water through the drilling process known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking."

Some 3.6 percent to 7.9 percent of the methane from shale gas production leaks into the atmosphere, releasing a greenhouse gas that is especially potent over the first 20 years, the study said. "Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20 percent greater and perhaps more than twice as great on the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years."

Interesting3: Natural gas extracted from shale formations has a greater greenhouse gas footprint — in the form of methane emissions — than conventional gas, oil and coal over a 20 year period. This calls into question the logic of its use as a climate-friendly alternative to fossil fuels, according to Robert Howarth and colleagues, from Cornell University in New York.

Their work is published online in Springer's journal, Climatic Change Letters. Shale gas has become an increasingly important source of natural gas in the United States over the past decade. Shale gas is extracted by a high-volume hydraulic fracturing (fracking) process.

Large volumes of water are forced under pressure into the shale to fracture and re-fracture the rock to boost gas flow. A significant amount of water returns to the surface as flow-back within the first few days to weeks after injection and is accompanied by large quantities of methane.

Howarth and team evaluated the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas, obtained by high-volume hydraulic fracturing of shale formations, focusing on methane emissions. They analyzed the most recently published data — in particular, the technical background document on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry (EPA 2010), as well as a report on natural gas losses on federal lands from the General Accountability Office (GAO 2010).

They calculated that, overall, during the life cycle of an average shale-gas well, between four to eight percent of the total production of the well is emitted to the atmosphere as methane, via routine venting and equipment leaks, as well as with flow-back return fluids during drill out following the fracturing of the shale formations.

Routine production and downstream methane emissions are also large, but comparable to those of conventional gas. Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but methane also has a 10-fold shorter residence time in the atmosphere. As a result, its effect on global warming falls more rapidly.

Methane dominates the greenhouse gas footprint for shale gas on a 20 year horizon, contributing up to three times more than does direct carbon dioxide emission. At this time scale, the footprint for shale gas is at least 20 percent greater than that for coal, and perhaps twice as great.

Robert Howarth concludes: "The large greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas undercuts the logic of its use as a bridging fuel over coming decades, if the goal is to reduce global warming. The full footprint should be used in planning for alternative energy futures that adequately consider global climate change."