Hawaiian Islands weather details & Aloha paragraphs / December 12-13, 2010

December 12-13, 2010

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday afternoon:

Lihue airport, Kauai –       77
Honolulu airport, Oahu –   78
Kaneohe, Oahu –             77
Molokai airport –              80
Kahului airport, Maui –     83
Kona airport –                  82
Hilo airport, Hawaii –        81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 4pm Sunday afternoon:

Port Allen, Kauai – 81F
Kaneohe, Maui – 75 

Haleakala Crater –    missing (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 37 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Sunday afternoon:

2.14 Mount Waialeale, Kauai  
1.99 Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.52 Molokai 
0.11 Lanai
0.32 Kahoolawe
1.99 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.27 Laupahoehoe, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a weak 1020 millibar high pressure system moving by to the north of the state. Our winds will become lighter Monday…then slightly stronger Tuesday.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season won't end until November 31st here in the central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

Fading trade winds…with localized volcanic haze

Our winds swung around to the trade wind direction Sunday, replaced by lighter southeast breezes Monday…then slightly stronger trade winds again Tuesday. This weather map shows a 1020 millibar high pressure system moving by to the north of the islands Sunday night. There will be another brief return to the trade winds, maybe…on Tuesday. Looking further ahead, another low pressure system, with its cold front…will knock our trade winds down by mid-week. The outlook calls or light southeast winds Thursday through the end of the new week ahead…which will bring bouts of volcanic haze back into our area at times starting now.

Winds are already beginning to calm down some…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts early Sunday evening:

22 mph      Port Allen, Kauai
16             Kahuku, Oahu
08             Molokai
20             Kahoolawe
18             Kapalua, Maui
07             Lanai Airport 
23               South Point, Big Island 

We're heading into a drier weather pattern…although the windward sides will continue to have some showers until then.  The wild card remains in place for next weekend, at which point we could see rainy weather returning…stay tuned. This very large satellite image shows that the entire state is now to the west of the departing trough of low pressure. At the same time, we are still well to the southeast of an approaching cold front. Looking at this next satellite picture, we can see that the trade wind breezes are carrying some clouds and showers into our area…generally on the windward sides of the islands. Glancing over to this looping radar image, we can see several light showers that will keep some windward areas modestly wet for the time being.

This past Friday evening after work I  went to see a film called The Warrior Way, starring Geoffrey Rush, Tony Cox, Danny Huston, Kate Bosworth…among others. The synopsis: a warrior assassin struggles to find peace, contentment and perhaps love, in a forgotten western town…on the edge of the desert. I must admit that after a big week of weather work, this sounded like a good film to me. This film is actually getting B+ grades, which was good enough to draw me into the theatre. I ended up enjoying it quite a bit, and could give it a good solid B grade myself. As is often the case, this film wrapped itself around a love story between the Warrior, an attractive woman…with a child in there too. Here's a trailer for this film, just in case you were curious what type of film this was. 

It's Sunday evening as I begin writing this last section of today's narrative update. The weather here in the Hawaiian Islands is becoming drier, although we'll still see a few passing windward biased showers…now that the trade winds are still blowing lightly. Today was a generally nice day, although it did become locally hazy, and the showers kept the windward sides a bit wet in places. The things you can expect as we get into the new week, especially as the winds become light again by Monday and then again on Wednesday onwards, will be: clear cool mornings, with lots of sunshine at the beaches; some afternoon clouds and a few minor showers around the mountains…especially on Maui and the Big Island, and volcanic haze on the other islands besides the Big Island. Then, next weekend, as I mentioned above, we may see our next rain event, I'll write more about that as we move through the next several days.

~~~ Here in Kula, Maui, at around 5pm, the air temperature was 66.4F degrees. Skies were clear to partly cloudy, although there were some cloudy areas…with some showers too. We had a very short period, during the early afternoon, when I felt a few very light flecks of moisture falling. Looking from this upcountry vantage point, I see some vog starting to appear, which looks like to moderately thick at the moment. I'll be back early Monday morning with your next new weather narrative. I hope you have a great Sunday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn. 

Webcam atop Mauna Kea…on the Big Island – beautiful snow – viewable during the daylight hours

Interesting: A wave of reptile extinctions on the Greek islands over the past 15,000 years may offer a preview of the way plants and animals will respond as the world rapidly warms due to human-caused climate change, according to a University of Michigan ecologist and his colleagues. The Greek island extinctions also highlight the critical importance of preserving habitat corridors that will enable plants and animals to migrate in response to climate change, thereby maximizing their chances of survival.

As the climate warmed at the tail end of the last ice age, sea levels rose and formed scores of Aegean islands that had formerly been part of the Greek mainland. At the same time, cool and moist forested areas dwindled as aridity spread through the region.

In response to the combined effects of a shifting climate, vegetation changes and ever-decreasing island size, many reptile populations perished. To gain a clearer understanding of the past consequences of climate change, Johannes Foufopoulos (foo FOP oo los) and his colleagues calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species — assorted lizards, snakes and turtles — from 87 Greek islands in the northeast Mediterranean Sea.

The calculated extinction rates were based on the modern-day presence or absence of each species on islands that were connected to the mainland during the last ice age. Foufopoulos and his colleagues found a striking pattern to the island extinctions. In most cases, reptile populations disappeared on the smallest islands first — the places where the habitat choices were most limited.

Especially hard hit were "habitat specialist" reptiles that required a narrow range of environmental conditions to survive. In addition, northern-dwelling species that required cool, moist conditions showed some of the highest extinction rates. The study results appear in the January edition of American Naturalist.

The researchers conclude that a similar pattern of extinctions will emerge at various spots across the globe as the climate warms in the coming decades and centuries. In addition to adapting to a changing climate, plants and animals will be forced to traverse an increasingly fragmented natural landscape.

In many places, small chunks of natural habitat are now surrounded by vast, inhospitable expanses of agricultural and urbanized land, just as those newly formed Aegean islands were surrounded by rising seas thousands of years ago.

"The widespread fragmentation of natural habitats greatly exacerbates the effects of climate change and undermines the ability of species to adapt to the new conditions," said Foufopoulos, an associate professor at the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment and the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

In addition to Foufopoulos, the paper's authors are Anthony Ives of the University of Wisconsin and A. Marm Kilpatrick of the University of California, Santa Cruz. "The lessons learned from the wave of reptile extinctions suggest that if species are to survive the global climate shift already underway, not only do humans have to set significantly more land aside for conservation, but these protected areas will also need to be connected through a network of habitat corridors that allow species migration," Foufopoulos said.

Over the last several decades, global warming has resulted in a poleward shift in the range of many birds, butterflies and other creatures. This shift to cooler climes — northward in the Northern Hemisphere and southward in the Southern Hemisphere — is expected to continue in the future as organisms seek out places where temperature and moisture levels permit their survival.

Funding for the project was provided through the University of Wisconsin's Department of Zoology, the University of Michigan, the Princeton Environmental Institute, the Cleveland Dodge Foundation and the U.S. National Science Foundation.

Interesting2: Talks on a 190-nation deal to slow global warming were on a "knife edge" early on Friday as Brazil and Japan expressed guarded hopes of ending a dispute between rich and poor about curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Negotiators were set to work well into the early hours of the morning seeking to end a standoff over the future of the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, which binds almost 40 rich nations to curb emissions until 2012, before the final day of the two-week talks on Friday.

"Time is running out," Mexico's Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa, who is serving as the president of the talks being held at the Caribbean beach resort Cancun, told negotiators. If the negotiators fail to reach an agreement by Friday night they must face the reality of explaining that to their societies, she reminded them.

Some of the negotiators broke into groups in an attempt to hash out issues like financing for poor countries, technology transfers, and stopping deforestation. "Intensive consultations are taking place. We are engaging heavily with other parties. And it is a good sign," Brazil's negotiator Luiz Figueiredo said earlier at the talks.

"I am very hopeful we will have a good outcome." Brazil and Britain are leading talks on the Kyoto pact. Japan reiterated that it will not extend cuts under Kyoto beyond 2012, a position that has angered developing nations. Tokyo insists that all major emitters including China, India and the United States must instead sign up for a new treaty.

Interesting3: The ice sheet consists of layers of compressed snow and covers roughly 80 per cent of the surface of Greenland. Since the 1990s, it has been documented to be losing approximately 100 billion tons of ice per year — a process that most scientists agree is accelerating, but has been poorly understood. Some of the loss has been attributed to accelerated glacier flow towards ocean outlets.

Now a new study, published in the journal Nature, shows that a steady melt water supply from gradual warming may in fact slow down glacier flow, while sudden water input could cause glaciers to speed up and spread, resulting in increased melt.

"The conventional view has been that melt water permeates the ice from the surface and pools under the base of the ice sheet," says Christian Schoof, an assistant professor at UBC's Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences and the study's author.

"This water then serves as a lubricant between the glacier and the earth underneath it, allowing the glacier to shift to lower, warmer altitudes where more melt would occur."

Noting observations that during heavy rainfall, higher water pressure is required to force drainage along the base of the ice, Schoof created computer models that account for the complex fluid dynamics occurring at the interface of glacier and bedrock.

He found that a steady supply of melt water is well accommodated and drained through water channels that form under the glacier.

Interesting4: New rounds of arctic cold and snow are in store for the United Kingdom and portions of Europe in the days leading up to Christmas, causing fears of cancellations of celebrations for the holiday. The jet stream will plunge once again, allowing arctic cold to return late next week across the U.K. and much of Europe. The cold air will lay the tracks for an active snowstorm path across the region.

One or two of these storms leading up to Christmas could end up strengthening into major, travel-halting storms. Temperatures will plummet below zero degrees Celsius across portions of the U.K. next Thursday into Friday behind a round of rain and high-elevation snow. Gale-force winds will make it feel even colder than actual temperatures.

It is not entirely out of the question that rain may change to snow for a bit in London late next week. "Germany will take the brunt of the cold, while the U.K. is getting a brief break from the cold," according to Expert Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Joe Bastardi. Bastardi adds, even when the cold builds back into the U.K. next week, the worst of it will be focused over Germany.

The temperature will be below lower the 20’s F in Berlin for much of next week. The high at Paris should fall to zero degrees Celsius by Thursday. People may notice how wintry it has felt in Paris, following a round of record snow that shut down the Eiffel Tower.

Interesting5: On the evening of 13 and the morning of 14 December, skywatchers across the northern hemisphere will be looking up as the Geminid meteor shower reaches its peak, in one of the best night sky events of the year. And unlike many astronomical phenomena, meteors are best seen without a telescope (and are perfectly safe to watch).

At its peak and in a clear, dark sky up to 100 'shooting stars' or meteors may be visible each hour. Meteors are the result of small particles entering the Earth's atmosphere at high speed, burning up and super-heating the air around them, which shines as a characteristic short-lived streak of light.

In this case the debris is associated with the asteroidal object 3200 Phaethon, which many astronomers believe to be an extinct comet. The meteors appear to originate from a 'radiant' in the constellation of Gemini, hence the name Geminid. By 0200 GMT on 14 December the radiant will be almost overhead in the UK, making it ideally placed for British observers.

By that time the first quarter Moon will have set so the prospects for a good view of the shower are excellent. Meteors in the Geminid shower are less well known, probably because the weather in December is less reliable. But those who brave the cold can be rewarded with a fine view.

In comparison with other showers, Geminid meteors travel fairly slowly, at around 22 miles per second, are bright and have a yellowish hue, making them distinct and easy to spot. This year the peak of the Geminids meteor shower occurs at around 1100 GMT on 14 December, but the highest level activity is spread over a period lasting a day or more.

This means that if conditions are clear it is worthwhile observing at any time between Sunday night and Wednesday morning. As with most astronomical events, the best place to see meteors is at dark sites away from the light pollution of towns and cities. In good weather, rural sites such as Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park in Scotland (where a planned meteor watch will take place on 13-14 December) are potentially excellent locations to see the Geminid shower.