August 8-9, 2009
Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday afternoon:
Lihue, Kauai – 83
Honolulu, Oahu – 89
Kaneohe, Oahu – 84
Kahului, Maui – 86
Hilo, Hawaii – 83
Kailua-kona – 87
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Saturday afternoon:
Port Allen, Kauai – 88F
Hilo, Hawaii – 80
Haleakala Crater – 59 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 45 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)
Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Saturday afternoon:
0.79 Mount Waialaele, Kauai
0.10 Kii, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.38 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.82 Honaunau, Big Island
Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a 1029 millibar high pressure system to the northeast of the islands. This high pressure cell, along with its associated ridge to our north, will keep the trade winds blowing Sunday. Winds will become stronger and gusty Monday and Tuesday…as Felicia moves through the southern part of the Hawaiian Islands.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.
Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hurricane Felicia approaches from the east
A fairly typical trade wind weather pattern, with moderately strong trade winds, will persist through Sunday. A 1030 millibar high pressure system remains in place to the northeast of Hawaii Saturday evening. This trade wind producing high pressure cell is shown on this weather map. A small craft wind advisory continues to cover only the windiest areas around Maui County and the Big Island at this time. As weakening tropical cyclone Felicia moves into our area Monday, we will see small craft wind advisories likely statewide, and perhaps even gale warnings in some of the major channels…along with wind advisories over certain parts of the islands. A tropical storm watch over the southern part of the state is already in effect, with tropical storm warnings over the offshore waters around the islands. Tropical storm force winds are 39 – 73 mph.
Generally fair weather conditions will prevail through Sunday…with a few showers falling along the windward sides during the night and early morning hours. When tropical cyclone Felicia pushes into the state of Hawaii during the day Monday…we will very likely see heavy rains arrive around the Big Island and Maui, and then move further up the chain to the other islands into Tuesday. Once this potentially rainy weather moves west past the state later Tuesday into early Wednesday, we will return to favorably inclined weather conditions statewide.
Note: The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the islands of Maui County and the Big Island starting Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. This means that "ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING INCREASING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY"
Note: The NWS office in Honolulu continues its Flood Potential Outlook for Oahu and Kauai, associated with tropical cyclone Felicia. There is the potential for heavy rains and flash flooding later Monday through the middle of the week on those two islands. The NWS disclaimer reads: "AT THIS POINT…THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED…THE ONSET…AND DURATION OF HEAVY RAINS…AS WELL AS THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ALL OF THESE ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FELICIA ULTIMATELY TAKES."
Hurricane Felicia is now moving across our central Pacific towards Hawaii…as a weakening hurricane. This hurricane is being rated as a category 1 tropical cyclone Saturday evening. Felicia is expected to drop in strength going forward, as it moves towards the Hawaiian Islands. The current forecast keeps Felicia a hurricane through Saturday, before weakening it into a tropical storm Sunday. Here’s a tracking map, showing the center of Felicia heading generally towards the Alenuihaha Channel, and the southern part of Maui. Here’s a satellite image showing this weakening hurricane in relation to the Hawaiian Islands.
The sustained winds with hurricane Felicia Saturday evening were blowing at 75 knots, which translates into 86 mph…with gusts to near 104 mph. This hurricane is expected to gradually weaken throughout the rest of its life cycle. The relatively good news continues to be that the forecast drops the system down into a tropical storm, as it approaches the southern end of the island chain. Tropical storm force winds are 39-73 mph. By the way, here’s a sea water temperature map showing the ocean to the east of the islands.
If the current NHC forecast holds up, with a weakening tropical storm moving over the southern islands…we could see the following influences. The first sign of the storm would be rising high surf along our east facing shores later on Sunday…which could bring dangerously large breaking waves to our beaches into Monday and Tuesday. As Felicia gets closer, we would see blustery weather, with gusty winds being enhanced where physical terrain features accelerate the flow. Finally, when this tropical system moves over the state…we would see increasing clouds, and heavy flooding rainfall Monday into Tuesday. It’s difficult to gauge how much precipitation that we might receive ahead of time, but an estimate might be 5-8 inches, with 12+ inches in those wettest locations. Flash flooding is a definite threat across the entire island chain.
It’s Saturday evening here in Kula, Maui, as I begin writing this part of today’s narrative. If you had a chance to read down through this entire page, you know that gradually weakening hurricane Felica is heading towards our Hawaiian Islands. The hope is that as it pushes westward, it will run into stronger winds at upper levels of the atmosphere. These are conditions that typically inhibit further strengthening of a storm…and often cause a rather pronounced weakening. This may or may not happen, so we should pay close attention to the progress of this dangerous tropical cyclone as it takes aim on our islands. Here’s a great satellite image showing the big picture, with Felicia and the islands.
~~~ Hurricane Felicia was more or less maintaining its general strength Saturday evening, as it remains over relatively warm water, and hasn’t yet moved under the shearing upper winds that are expected before the system reaches the Hawaiian Islands. There could be a falling apart of this tropical cyclone as it nears Hawaii, although this hasn’t started to happen yet. As has been pointed out many times along the way, it is still a bit too early to know exactly for sure what will happen. If this shearing action takes place as hoped for, we would likely see a weakened tropical storm moving over, or close to Maui and the Big Island. If on the other hand, the shearing didn’t take place to the degree expected…we could see a stronger tropical storm moving into the state of Hawaii. Stay tuned!
~~~ After I got off work Friday evening at the Pacific Disaster Center in Kihei, Maui, I figured I would just go home, as it had been a very long week, and I was tired. Somehow, along the way, my car veered into Kahului, and I had a quick take out dinner at Down to Earth. I then drove over to one of the theaters, and looked to see what was playing. I ended up taking in a very endearing film called Julia & Julie (2009), starring Meryl Streep and Amy Adams…among others. This film was just exactly what I needed, and I enjoyed it very much! A short synopsis: Nora Ephron adapts Julie Powell‘s autobiographical book Julie and Julia: 365 Days, 524 Recipes, 1 Tiny Apartment Kitchen with this Columbia Pictures production starring Amy Adams as an amateur chef who decides to cook every recipe in a cookbook from acclaimed celebrity chef Julia Child (played by Meryl Streep) in order to chronicle it in a blog over the course of a year. Streep‘s Devil Wears Prada co-star Stanley Tucci re-teams with the actress as Child’s husband.
Here’s a trailer for this great film.
Speaking of great stuff, try this piece of work – make it full screen, turn the music up…and enjoy!
~~~ I worked at home today for the Pacific Disaster Center, so I was at my computer. I’ll be here to bring you the latest news on hurricane Felicia again on Sunday. I hope you have a great Saturday night from wherever you’re reading from! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Interesting: Scientists have placed high-tech "spiders" inside and around the mouth of Mount St. Helens, one of the most active volcanoes in the United States. Networks such as these could one day be used to respond rapidly to an impending eruption. On July 14, 2009, these spider pods were lowered by cable from a helicopter hovering about 100 feet up and gently put in hot spots inside and around the volcano crater.
"This project demonstrates that a low-cost sensor network system can support real-time monitoring in extremely challenging environments," said WenZhan Song of Washington State University Vancouver. Song is the principal investigator for this NASA-funded technology research project, which also draws on participation from the U.S. Geological Survey and from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
These robotic emissaries were built to go where no human can and operate in extreme temperatures and treacherous terrain. Fifteen pods form a virtual wireless network, communicating with each other and the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite, operated by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Md.
"Taking data from the ground onsite and from above by satellite gives you a great picture of what is going on inside the volcano," said Steve Chien, principal scientist for autonomous systems at JPL. Each pod contains a seismometer to detect earthquakes; a GPS receiver to pinpoint the exact location and measure subtle ground deformation; an infrared sounder to sense volcanic explosions; and a lightning detector to search for ash cloud formation.
The main instrument box is the size and shape of a microwave oven. It sits on top of a three-legged tripod, which is why scientists call them spiders. The pods are powered by batteries that can last for at least a year. "With these high-tech instruments, we can rapidly respond during periods of volcanic unrest to supplement our permanent monitoring network or quickly replace damaged stations without excessive exposure to personnel," said Rick LaHusen, an instrumentation engineer with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Wash.
In 1980, a tremendous eruption at Mount St. Helens caused considerable loss of life and damage. More recently, in 2004, the volcano came back to life and erupted more than 26 billion gallons of lava, accompanied by a series of explosions that hurled rock and ash far from the vent.
If eruptions like these ever occur again, a sensor network could be quickly put in place to provide valuable real-time information to scientists and emergency services. This work is part of NASA’s plan to develop a sensor web to provide timely data and analyses for scientific research, natural hazard mitigation, and the exploration of other planets in this solar system and beyond.
"We hope this network will provide a blueprint for future networks to be installed on many of the world’s unmonitored active volcanoes, so educated and reliable estimates can be made when a town or a village needs to be evacuated to reduce the risk to life and property," said Project Manager Sharon Kedar of JPL.
Chien said, "Hostile environments like Mount St. Helens are proving grounds for future space missions, such as to Mars, where we may someday have similar sensor networks to track a meteor strike, dust storm or Mars quake, as a virtual scientist on the ground." Song said, "The design and deployment experiences will help us understand challenging environments and inspire new discoveries."
Interesting2: Scientists now know how a natural hydrocarbon emitted in large quantities by plants can be transformed into light-scattering aerosols that contribute to haze and influence climate. The finding will improve models of atmospheric chemistry and climate and may help explain puzzling field observations in some parts of the world, the researchers report. Worldwide, plants release more than 550 million metric tons of the hydrocarbon isoprene into the atmosphere each year.
But scientists have disagreed about the particular chain of chemical reactions that transform isoprene into haze-forming aerosols, says Fabien Paulot, an atmospheric chemist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. Now, lab tests by Paulot and his colleagues, reported in the Aug. 7 Science, have identified a new class of substances long suspected to form as an intermediate in those reactions but never before seen.
The team created the chemicals, called dihydroxyepoxides, by placing isoprene and hydrogen peroxide in an 800-liter bag of unpolluted air and then illuminating the mix with ultraviolet light. The UV light stimulated chemical reactions, just as sunlight would, and the hydrogen peroxide served as a source of hydroxyl radicals — highly reactive compounds known as "the detergent of the atmosphere," Paulot says.
Isoprene and hydroxyl radicals reacted to form dihydroxyepoxides via two separate chemical processes. Because the resulting epoxides are highly soluble, they readily dissolve into droplets of moisture in the air to form organic-rich aerosols, Paulot says.
Interesting3: Harvard University scientists are predicting some forms of air pollution could increase significantly across the West as more of the region’s wild lands burn as a result of rising temperatures. Smoke from wildfires contains two main kinds of carbon particles: black soot, or elemental carbon, and lighter-colored particles, called organic carbon aerosols, which are a mix of chemicals.
"In large quantities, downwind of fires, organic carbon aerosols are hazardous," said senior research fellow Jennifer Logan, who led a study examining rising wildfire rates and the impact on air quality. "The particles irritate lung tissue and the chemicals they carry are toxic. But even at low concentrations, these aerosols may be dangerous. We don’t know. There is no known threshold where damage begins."
Interesting4: Three major glaciers in Alaska and Washington state have thinned and shrunk dramatically, clear signs of a warming climate, according to a study released Thursday by the U.S. Geological Survey. The three glaciers — Gulkana and Wolverine in Alaska and South Cascade in Washington — are considered benchmarks for those in alpine and maritime climates because they closely parallel other glaciers in their regions.
They have also been the subject of close scientific scrutiny since 1957. "These are the three glaciers in North America that have the longest record of mass change," said Shad O’Neel, a United States Geological Survey glaciologist in Anchorage who was one of the study authors.
"All three of them have a different climate from the other two, yet all three are showing a similar pattern of behavior, and that behavior is mass loss." Scientists are keeping a close watch on melting glaciers, as a rise in sea-levels would threaten coastal and low-lying areas around the world.
The latest study compares records of snow and ice thickness and densities over the years, the factors used to calculate mass. The glaciers have lost mass as melting outpaced new snow and ice accumulation, and for all three, the losses were especially dramatic over the past 15 years, according to the USGS study.
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