April 22-23, 2009
Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday afternoon:
Lihue, Kauai – 75
Honolulu, Oahu – 82
Kaneohe, Oahu – 74
Kahului, Maui – 76
Hilo, Hawaii – 69
Kailua-kona – 84
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Wednesday afternoon:
Kailua-kona – 81F
Hilo, Hawaii – 68
Haleakala Crater – 48 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – missing (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)
Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Wednesday afternoon:
0.03 Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
0.20 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.11 Kahakuloa, Maui
3.03 Laupahoehoe, Big Island
Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a low pressure system to the north-northeast of Hawaii. At the same time, find a trough of low pressure located over the Big Island. There’s a ridge of high pressure several hundred miles to the north of the islands too, all of which will keep light to almost moderately strong NE winds over us for the time being…lightest winds over the Big Island.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Happy Earth Day!
Skies cleared remarkably well during the day Wednesday, at least in many areas…although there are more on their way.
An area of cold air aloft over the next few days may trigger localized heavy showers over the islands through Friday. Here’s a looping radar image so we can keep track of where those showers may be falling…although there was a definite lack of rainfall Wednesday evening! The models are showing the potential rains, that may show up Thursday and Friday, backing off during the upcoming weekend…although more unsettled weather may arrive early next week.
The NWS forecast office in Honolulu is keeping the flash flood watch for the entire state active, starting at noon Thursday…ending at 6pm Friday. This rather strongly suggests that the atmosphere will remain ripe for more showers through the next several days. The cold air associated with a low pressure system in the higher atmosphere over the islands, may enhance whatever showers that happen to be falling. This is still being thought of as a hit or miss situation, which may need until Thursday morning before we know for certain where and when this heavy stuff may take place.
The big question, and its associated uncertainty…continues to be where an anticipated upper level low pressure system will end up. The placement of this destabilizing weather feature will help to determine just where any rainfall, and especially the heavy stuff…will fall. If this low forms to the west of, or over the islands, then we could get very wet. If on the other hand, it locates itself to the northeast or east of the state, then we would remain on the dry side. Here’s a looping satellite image to keep track of where the clouds are headed.
It’s early Wednesday evening as I begin writing this last section of today’s weather narrati ve. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty around the upcoming weather picture! The one thing that we need to keep our eye on here, is the fact that the NWS has a flash flood watch in force across all the islands, which begins at noon Thursday. The main threat remains that cold air aloft, will cause whatever clouds that around to become very rainy at times later Thursday through
Friday. Again though, where this rain will fall, either over the ocean, or over our islands, remains a question. ~~~ Looking back at that looping radar image in one of the paragraphs above, we’re starting to see some showers forming to the southwest of Kauai, which are heading towards Kauai and perhaps Oahu. Could this be the beginning of the showery weather that the models have been suggesting would arrive…coming in a bit earlier than expected? ~~~ Meanwhile, it’s Earth Day on this big round globe of ours! As such, we celebrate what a wonderful home we have in this large universe of ours. I personally love planet Earth, and do everything I can to keep it clean and vital. I know we all love it, in our various ways, but today is the one day of the year when we can remember to feel fond affection for it! ~~~ Here in Kihei, Maui, before I begin the drive back upcountry, it’s nearly cloud free out there, althougth it seems to be getting cloudier by the moment…and hazy too. I’m actually really looking forward to seeing what all happens as we move through the next couple of days, regarding the wet weather. The good news is that it appears that our weekend may turn out to be favorably inclined, although that isn’t a 100% sure thing just yet. I’ll be back early Thursday morning with your next new weather narrative, which should include a more definitive answer to: will the big rains come or not? I hope you have a great Wednesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Interesting: The increase in warmer and drier climates predicted to occur under climate change scenarios has led many scientists to also predict a global increase in the number of wildfires. But a new study in the May issue of Ecological Monographs shows that in some cases, changes in the types of plants growing in an area could override the effects of climate change on wildfire frequency.
Philip Higuera of Montana State University and his colleagues show that although changing temperatures and moisture levels set the stage for changes in wildfire frequency, they can often be trumped by changes in the distribution and abundance of plants. Vegetation plays a major role in determining the flammability of an ecosystem, he says, potentially dampening or amplifying the impacts that climate change has on fire frequencies.
"Climate is only one control of fire regimes, and if you only considered climate when predicting fire under climate-change scenarios, you would have a good chance of being wrong," he says. "You wouldn’t be wrong if vegetation didn’t change, but the greater the probability that vegetation will change, the more important it becomes when predicting future fire regimes." Higuera and his colleagues examined historical fire frequency in northern Alaska by analyzing sediments at the bottom of lakes.
Using meter-long samples, called sediment cores, Higuera and his colleagues measured changes in the abundance of preserved plant parts, such as pollen, to determine the types of vegetation that dominated the landscape during different time periods in the past. Like rings in a tree, different layers of sediment represent different times in the past.
Interesting2: From Arctic Inuit to Pacific Islanders, indigenous peoples from 80 countries are meeting at a summit in Anchorage, Alaska, this week to forge a common position on climate change. They want an official voice alongside national governments in upcoming negotiations to agree a successor to the Kyoto protocol. The meeting is emphasizing indigenous peoples’ histories of adapting to change. But beneath it is the fear that they will be trampled by rich countries trying to cut greenhouse emissions by managing indigenous lands.
"Indigenous peoples have contributed least to the global problems of climate change, but will almost certainly bear the greatest brunt of its impact," says Patricia Cochran, chair of the summit and head of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. Arctic peoples are hurting as sea ice changes and permafrost melts. The Yup’ik village of Newtok, Alaska, is now moving to higher ground to escape storm surges unleashed by disappearing sea ice and another 26 villages in Alaska are similarly threatened.
Interesting3: Rivers in some of the world’s most populous regions are losing water, according to a comprehensive study of global stream flows. The research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., suggests that the reduced flows in many cases are associated with climate change, and could potentially threaten future supplies of food and water.
The results will be published May 15 in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor. The results will be published May 15 in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor.
"The distribution of the world’s fresh water, already an important topic," says Cliff Jacobs of NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, "will occupy front and center stage for years to come in developing adaptation strategies to a changing climate."
The scientists, who examined stream flows from 1948 to 2004, found significant changes in about one-third of the world’s largest rivers. Of those, rivers with decreased flow outnumbered those with increased flow by a ratio of about 2.5 to 1. Several of the rivers channeling less water serve large populations, including the Yellow River in northern China, the Ganges in India, the Niger in West Africa and the Colorado in the southwestern United States.
In contrast, the scientists reported greater stream flows over sparsely populated areas near the Arctic Ocean, where snow and ice are rapidly melting. "Reduced runoff is increasing the pressure on freshwater resources in much of the world, especially with more demand for water as population increases," says NCAR scientist Aiguo Dai, the lead author of the journal paper.
"Freshwater being a vital resource, the downward trends are a great concern." Many factors may affect river discharge, including dams and the diversion of water for agriculture and industry. The researchers found, however, that the reduced flows in many cases appear to be related to global climate change, which is altering precipitation patterns and increasing the rate of evaporation.
Interesting4: Populations of major wild grazing animals that are the heart and soul of Kenya’s cherished and heavily visited Masai Mara National Reserve—including giraffes, hartebeest, impala, and warthogs—have "decreased substantially" in only 15 years as they compete for survival with a growing concentration of human settlements in the region, according to a new study published today in the May 2009 issue of the British Journal of Zoology.
The study, analyzed by researchers at the Nairobi-based International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and led and funded by World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), is based on rigorous, monthly monitoring between 1989 and 2003 of seven "ungulate," or hoofed, species in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, which covers some 1500 square kilometers in southwestern Kenya.
Scientists found that a total of six species—giraffes, hartebeest, impala, warthogs, topis and waterbuck—declined markedly and persistently throughout the reserve. The study provides the most detailed evidence to date on declines in the ungulate populations in the Mara and how this phenomenon is linked to the rapid expansion of human populations near the boundaries of the reserve.
For example, an analysis of the monthly sample counts indicates that the losses were as high as 95 percent for giraffes, 80 percent for warthogs, 76 percent for hartebeest, and 67 percent for impala. Researchers say the declines they documented are supported by previous studies that have found dramatic drops in the reserve of once abundant wildebeest, gazelles and zebras.
"The situation we documented paints a bleak picture and requires urgent and decisive action if we want to save this treasure from disaster," said Joseph Ogutu, the lead author of the study and a statistical ecologist at ILRI. "Our study offers the best evidence to date that wildlife losses in the reserve are widespread and substantial, and that these trends are likely linked to the steady increase in human settlements on lands adjacent to the reserve."
Interesting5: A group of astronomers today announced the discovery of the least massive planet yet detected outside of our solar system. It is lightweight enough–between two and three times the mass of Earth–to almost certainly be rocky like Earth rather than a huge ball of gas. Although the planet orbits too close to its star to be habitable, a new analysis of one of its neighbors suggests a world with deep oceans.
All this raises the prospect of discovering an Earth-size planet orbiting at just the right distance from its star to give life a chance. "It’s just a matter of time now," says exoplanet specialist Sara Seager of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. Planet hunters are an ambitious lot. They’re after an Earth-sized, rocky planet orbiting at a comfortable, livable distance from its star.
For ease of observation, the exoplanet should periodically pass between the star and astronomers on Earth. They’ve already bagged huge planets orbiting in a star’s habitable zone–where any water would be liquid–and huge planets transiting in front of their stars. They’ve found small planets too: CoRoT-Exo-7b, whose discovery was announced in February, is twice the diameter of Earth but likely eight times it’s mass–and far from habitable.
What makes the new world so noteworthy is its small mass. At the Joint European and National Astronomy Meeting being held this week in Hatfield, U.K., a 13-member group led by planet hunter Michel Mayor of the Observatory of Geneva in Switzerland announced that Gliese 581 e, located only 20.5 light-years away in the constellation Libra, is so small that it isn’t smothered with gas the way Jupiter or Neptune is.
Interesting6: There are good signs that that corporate sustainability is moving beyond mere PR and blue-sky vibes. It might even be true, descending at last from somewhere past Mars to an Earth-based reality. Speaking of Mars, the candy company of the same name claims it is the "first global chocolate company to commit to fundamentally changing the way sustainable cocoa farming practices are advanced by aiming to certify" that its entire cocoa supply is produced in a sustainable manner by 2020.
It wants to achieve this through collaboration with the Rainforest Alliance, an international non-profit that works on land-use practices, business practices, and consumer behavior. They unveiled new goals in their continuing campaign to help cocoa farmers get on the path toward sustainability. They agreed to redouble efforts to help thousands of farmers meet holistic social and environmental standards so that their farms could earn Rainforest Alliance certification.
Near-term, Mars aims to buy enough certified cocoa so that the Galaxy chocolate bar, for example, which is highly popular in the United Kingdom, can bear the Rainforest Alliance Certified green seal of approval by early 2010. The Rainforest Alliance accepted the company’s challenge to bring enough farms up to code so that 100,000 tons of Rainforest Alliance Certified cocoa would be available each year by 2020. Let’s hope its aim is true.
Mars says this is the "latest milestone in a long-running sustainability effort," and demonstrates a "real commitment" to sustainable farming. "Mars’ commitment to buying sustainable cocoa is unprecedented in size and scope, and the benefits to farmers, farm workers, tropical environments and wildlife will be tangible," says Tensie Whelan, president of the Rainforest Alliance. "This initiative is an example of the tremendous impact global companies can have when they commit to sustainability."
Kind of breathless, kind of self-serving maybe, but it’s a worthy effort and someone has to step up. Give ’em a chocolate bar. The Rainforest Alliance accepted the company’s challenge to bring enough farms up to code so that 100,000 tons of Rainforest Alliance Certified cocoa would be available each year by 2020. Let’s hope its aim is true. Mars says this is the "latest milestone in a long-running sustainability effort," and demonstrates a "real commitment" to sustainable farming.
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