Hawaiian Islands weather details & Aloha paragraphs

The trade winds will start to get lighter Tuesday for a couple of days. Weather charts still show an exceptionally strong 1045 millibar high pressure system north of Hawaii Monday evening. This dynamic high pressure cell will begin to lose strength soon, with a corresponding softening of our local wind speeds. Small craft wind advisories remain up in all of our coast waters for the time being. The computer forecast models suggest that these trade winds will begin to ease up Tuesday, and veer around to the southeast or even south on the Kauai end of the chain for a couple of days. The trade winds will remain from the easterly direction on the Big Island and Maui.

The lighter trade winds will still be able to carry passing showers onto our windward coasts and slopes at times. Showers being carried in our direction by the trade winds, which will fall most often along the windward sides, although may be carried over into some leeward spots on the smaller islands tonight. As the winds slow down Tuesday into Wednesday, we’ll see some increase in afternoon convective showers near Kauai. The Big Island end of the chain should remain in a trade wind flow, with windward biased showers continuing in an off and on manner.

It’s Monday evening as I begin updating this last section of today’s narrative. As noted above, we continue to have a 1045 millibar high pressure system far to the north of the islands. This high pressure cell is dominating the area from just west of the International Dateline, across all of the central north Pacific, including northward into the Gulf of Alaska…and on over into the east Pacific into the west coast and Baja, California. 

The trade winds remained locally strong Monday, with the top numbers a fairly impressive 42 mph at Kahooolawe, and 44 mph at South Point, on the Big Island. As noted above, starting Tuesday our winds will relax some, due to the presence of low pressure to the northwest of Hawaii. This low will cause southeast or even south winds to develop on Kauai, and perhaps on Oahu too…prompting somewhat heavier upcountry convective showers, especially during the afternoon hours into Thursday. Meanwhile, further away from the low to the east, the Big Island, and Maui County will remain in the trade wind flow, with continued windward focused shower activity.

As the low pressure system, both aloft and at the surface develops further over the next couple of days, we’ll see heavy showers or even thunderstorms flairing-up over the ocean west of Kauai and Niihau. These heavy rain producers shouldn’t extend over to the Hawaiian Islands however, although the tops of those cumulonimbus clouds, called cirrus, will likely get carried over the islands by the upper winds aloft. This should prompt nice sunrise and sunset colors at times.

I’ll be back very early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative. I hope you have a good Monday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting: One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global warming has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his stand. The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.The research, appearing in the March issue of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is all the more remarkable coming from Emanuel, a highly visible leader in his field and long an ardent proponent of a link between global warming and much stronger hurricanes. His changing views could influence other scientists.

Interesting4: Hoping to ease the parking problems that plague drivers in many cities around the world, San Francisco is to test a high tech parking system that will change meter prices on the fly, and give drivers the ability to check availability on their cell phones. The 23-million-dollar demonstration project will cover 6,425 curbside spaces regulated by parking meters – about 25 per cent of the city’s total stock – and 11,677 spaces in city-managed lots and garages, the San Francisco Chronicle reported Monday. City officials hope to start the test program in September and operate it for at least a year. The agency’s governing board is expected to give the go-ahead at its meeting Tuesday. The plan is for city officials to micromanage the parking supply to reduce the time it takes motorists to find parking sports and at the same time generate more revenue. Sensors would be embedded in the asphalt to keep track of when a parking spot is empty. Parking rates would be adjusted based on time of day, day of week and duration of stay. People would be able to pay not just with coins, but with credit cards, prepaid debit cards and even by cell phone. If a meter is set to expire, a text message could be sent to the driver. More time could be purchased remotely. People also would be able to check parking availability before arriving at their destination via the Internet and cell phone. "The idea is to give people more choice, more convenience and to reduce congestion," said Mayor Gavin Newsom.

Interesting 5: A major earthquake measuring 6.7 or more is 99 per cent likely to hit California within the next 30 years, scientists said Monday in releasing the first official forecast of statewide earthquake probabilities. The report by a team of federal and state earthquake scientists said that a much more damaging quake of magnitude of 7.5 or greater is at least 46 per cent likely to hit within the same period. The 6.7 magnitude Northridge quake of 1994 killed 60 people, left 20,000 homeless and damaged more than 40,000 buildings. The study "basically guarantees it’s going to happen" again by 2037, said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the US Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report. The quake’s precise time and location is not known. The scientists said that they hoped their findings would jolt awareness about the dangers facing California. "In our two major metropolitan areas where odds are high that a large quake is coming, people think a lot about quakes whenever even a smaller one shakes, … but 10 days later most folks forget them, and they shouldn’t," said David Schwartz, an earthquake geologist at the US Geological Survey. The scientists used new analytical tools and computer programs to arrive at their new forecasts of earthquake magnitudes and the faults they may rupture. By their calculations, the probability that a 6.7 magnitude quake will hit on any one of the faults in the San Francisco Bay area is now set at 63 per cent, only slightly higher than the 62 per cent estimated in 2003.