Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

80 – 65  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 65  Honolulu, Oahu

8158  Molokai AP
8357  Kahului AP, Maui

83 – 62  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday afternoon:

0.05  Lihue, Kauai
0.02  Poamoho RG 1,
Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.01  Kamuela, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

17  Poipu, Kauai – NE
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – SSW
27  Molokai – NNE
30  Lanai – NE

31  Kahoolawe – ENE
24  Kapalua, Maui – NNE

27  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
The Pacific storm track is riding along in the Prevailing
Westerlies…well north of the Hawaiian Islands

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Scattered low clouds in our area…with the next
cold front beginning to show up far northwest

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear with partly cloudy areas locally…the remnants
of yesterday’s cold front near Kauai and Oahu

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Just a few showers –
looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory
…most coasts and channels
across the state

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu,
Molokai, north shore of Maui, west shore of the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…for the north shore of the Big Island

Marine Weather Statement…a large and dangerous northwest
swell will produce harbor surges and large breaking waves at
the harbor entrances exposed to this swell. This includes the
Hanalei, Waianae, Haleiwa, and Honokohau boat harbors

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Trades into Friday…followed by light southeast breezes along with more vog again by the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find high pressure systems just to our north and far east-northeast of the islands. In addition, there are several low pressure systems far to the north and northwest of Hawaii. The storm low to the northwest has an associated cold front, while still far away…will be approaching the state. The forecast shows trade winds arriving today into Friday, which hopefully will blow the vog away. As we get into the weekend, a cold front will near the state, swinging our winds around to the southeast…with returning volcanic haze over many areas of the state. Thereafter, and in the wake of the cold fronts passage late Sunday into Monday, chilly north to northeasterly winds will move over the state for a few days…locally rather strong and gusty.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphicshowing vog forecast

As the trade winds return today into Friday, a dissipating cold front falling apart near Kauai…will contribute a few showers along our windward sides into Friday. Meanwhile, the leeward sides should have nice weather, with mostly dry conditions, and plenty of warm sunshine beaming down. As we push into the upcoming weekend, and as our winds calm down again, we’ll see some increase in afternoon clouds over the interior sections. At the same time, our atmosphere will likely fill up with more vog. Later in the weekend a cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday into next Monday, which should bring showers and stronger winds our way then. These winds will bring another short period of winter coolness to the state for a couple of days…along with lots of passing windward showers into mid-week.

Here in Maui CountyIt’s mostly clear early this Thursday morning with light vog…which is going away quickly. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 42F degrees before sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 59 degrees down in Kahului, 63 out in Hana…and 43 atop the Haleakala Crater. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 66 degrees, 60 at Lanai City, with 68 at the Molokai airport.

Early afternoon, and there are no clouds over Maui that I can see, not ah one! The trade winds have blown the recent vog away too, so we’re looking at a near perfect winter day.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn

~~~ Here’s a weather product that I produced for the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) this morning…covering three tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific, the Coral Sea, and near Madagascar in the South Indian Ocean, and an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:


Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)
remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located 398 NM west of Suva, Fiji, with sustained winds of 63 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active in the Coral Sea, located 483 NM northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, with sustained winds of 63 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located 361 NM south of Saint Denis, La Reunion Island, with sustained winds of 52 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Are we impacting the future of our planet for thousands of years?
– The Earth may suffer irreversible damage that could last tens of thousands of years because of the rate humans are emitting carbon into the atmosphere.

In a new study in Nature Climate Change, researchers at Oregon State University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and collaborating institutions found that the longer-term impacts of climate change go well past the 21st century.

“Much of the carbon we are putting in the air from burning fossil fuels will stay there for thousands of years — and some of it will be there for more than 100,000 years,” said Peter Clark, an Oregon State University paleoclimatologist and lead author on the article. “People need to understand that the effects of climate change on the planet won’t go away, at least not for thousands of generations.”

LLNL’s Benjamin Santer said the focus on climate change at the end of the 21st century needs to be shifted toward a much longer-term perspective.

“Our greenhouse gas emissions today produce climate-change commitments for many centuries to come,” Santer said. “Today’s actions — or inaction — will have long-term climate consequences for generations of our descendants.”

“The long-term view sends the chilling message what the real risks and consequences are of the fossil fuel era,” said Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern in Switzerland, who is past co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Working Group I. “It will commit us to massive adaptation efforts so that for many, dislocation and migration becomes the only option.”

Sea level rise is one of the most noticeable impacts of global warming, yet its effects are just starting to be seen, according to the article. The latest IPCC report calls for sea level rise of one meter by the year 2100. In the new study, however, the authors look at four different sea level-rise scenarios based on different rates of warming, from a low rate that could only be reached with massive efforts to eliminate fossil fuel use over the next few decades, to a higher rate based on the consumption of half the remaining fossil fuels over the next few centuries.

With just two degrees (Celsius) warming in the low-end scenario, sea levels are predicted to eventually rise by about 25 meters. With seven degrees warming at the high-end scenario, the rise is estimated at 50 meters, although over a period of several centuries to millennia.

“It takes sea level rise a very long time to react — on the order of centuries,” Clark said. “It’s like heating a pot of water on the stove; it doesn’t boil for quite a while after the heat is turned on — but then it will continue to boil as long as the heat persists. Once carbon is in the atmosphere, it will stay there for tens or hundreds of thousands of years, and the warming, as well as the higher seas, will remain.”

For the low-end scenario, an estimated 122 countries have at least 10 percent of their population in areas that will be directly affected by rising sea levels, and some 1.3 billion people — or 20 percent of the global population — may be directly affected. The impacts become greater as the warming and sea level rise increases.

The new paper makes the fundamental point that considering the long time scales of the carbon cycle and of climate change means that reducing emissions slightly or even significantly is not sufficient. “To spare future generations from the worst impacts of climate change, the target must be zero — or even negative carbon emissions — as soon as possible,” Clark said.

The researchers’ work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the German Science Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation