Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

7870   Lihue, Kauai
77 – 70  Honolulu, Oahu
7869  Molokai
7969  Kahului AP, Maui
67  Kona Int’l AP
75 –
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday morning:

1.20  Kilohana, Kauai
0.35  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.20  Molokai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.25  Puu Kukui, Maui
3.12  Saddle Quarry,
Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday morning:

30  Lihue, Kauai
32  Kuaokala, Oahu
30  Molokai
35  Lanai
29  Kahoolawe
29  Maalaea Bay, Maui
37  Kohala Ranch, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs
A counter-clockwise rotating low pressure system…with its cold front is located far north of the state
We see an old cold front south, the tail-end of another front well north…and a new front far northwest
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy…with many clear areas over the islands
Active showers locally…mostly offshore –
Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory
…all coasts and channels

Gale Warning…Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels

Special Weather Statement…strong thunderstorms possible over leeward and interior Big Island this afternoon

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative

Strong and gusty trade winds will continue the next couple of days…with a gradual decrease in wind speed Friday into the weekend. Computer models are showing a change in the weather pattern later Sunday into next week…with a trend toward lighter winds. These lighter will likely take up an east-southeast direction, and if they veer all the way around to the southeast, could bring some volcanic haze up from the Big Island vents…to the smaller islands.

As for today and Thursday, clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas…with brief showers occasionally spreading leeward on the strong winds. An upper-level disturbance passing over the islands, will allow some of the trade wind showers to become briefly heavy, with strong thunderstorms possible over the leeward Big Island slopes this afternoon.

The NWS office in Honolulu has issued a Special Weather Statement, highlighting the threats associated with these thunderstorms…which will primarily be lightning, gusty winds and small hail. The responsible low pressure system aloft over the state, is expected to move east and away from the islands later tonight and Thursday…with more stable conditions returning.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Gales (around 34 knots) are occurring across the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels. Strong trades were shown elsewhere across the Hawaiian waters. The latest model guidance supports this trend continuing through the day, before slightly easing Thursday through the weekend. As a result, the current gale warning for the channels will remain in place through early this evening. Elsewhere, the small craft advisory has been extended through Thursday…due to a combination of strong winds and high seas.

A new west-northwest swell, associated with a recent hurricane force low pressure system, will arrive later today, peak into Thursday…then gradually lower Friday. Observations at the offshore buoys northwest of Kauai are running lower than the latest wave model predictions, which indicates this source will show up later than anticipated across the local waters.

Another slightly larger, west-northwest swell, associated with a large area of gales south of a developing hurricane force low near the western end of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, will fill in Thursday night, peak late Friday and Friday night, then gradually lower through the weekend. This source will likely generate advisory level surf along exposed north and west facing shores late Friday through Saturday.

A small north swell, associated with a compact gale that was analyzed around 1200 nautical miles north of the islands this morning, will fill in Thursday night and hold into Saturday…before shifting to the northeast.

Strong trade winds locally and upstream of the state will generate near advisory level surf along east facing shores today. Surf will steadily lower Thursday into the weekend…as the trades slightly trend down.
Breezy weather continues

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific
: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 08P
is now active over French Polynesia, here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image of the system…and what the computer models are showing

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Unprecedented Arctic weather has scientists on edge
As station chief at NOAA’s Point Barrow, Alaska, observatory, Bryan Thomas works close to the edge of the Arctic Ocean. What he saw from his office in early February, looking north toward the horizon, was troubling.

“I could see what’s known as water-sky — the reflection of dark water on clouds on the horizon,” Thomas said. “From land, you can maybe see 10 miles, and the clouds were telling us that somewhere in that distance there was open water.”

Normally, there would be unbroken sea ice for hundreds of miles.

“Here we are in February, when we expect maximum sea ice extent,” Thomas added. “This might be all we’re going to get.”

The Arctic’s new abnormal

It’s a time of tumult in the Arctic, with record temperatures and extraordinary sea-ice conditions now becoming the norm. For starters:

  • Sea ice observed in January in the Arctic was the lowest in the 38 years of satellite record and 100,000 square miles less than 2016. That’s equivalent to the size of Colorado.

  • The average temperature of 4.4 degrees F in Barrow, Alaska, from November 2016 through January 2017 shattered the old record of 0 degrees set between 1929 and 1930. From 1921 to 2015, the average November-to-January temperature in Barrow was -7.9 degrees F.

  • Temperatures in the Arctic for the calendar year 2016 were by far the highest since 1900. Each of the past four years was among the top 10 warmest on record.

The late and faltering formation of sea ice this winter is one of many signs of extraordinary change in the Arctic, said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. He added that repeated surges of extremely warm air have stunted the growth of sea ice during fall and winter.

Melt season is dead ahead, and it’s not looking good

Will 2017 set a record for the least amount of sea ice ever recorded at winter’s end? Serreze said it’s probably a given: “We’re starting melt season on very, very bad footing.

What’s happening in the Arctic isn’t staying in the Arctic, added Richard Thoman, a meteorologist for NOAA’s National Weather Service Alaska Region. Profound changes are coming to the state’s interior as well.

“This winter was cold by today’s climate standards,” Thoman said. “By historic standards, it was completely uninteresting. I’m ready to say beyond any doubt that interior Alaska simply does not experience the temperatures it did in the past. “

The rapid changes are bewildering, even to scientists who’ve studied it for decades.

“We knew the Arctic would be the place we’d see the effects of climate change first, but what’s happened over the last couple of years has rattled the science community to its core,” Serreze said. “Things are happening so fast, we’re having trouble keeping up with it. We’ve never seen anything like this before.”