Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Friday:

88 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
92 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu – tied the all time record Thursday…set back in 1990
9175  Molokai
9277  Kahului, Maui
the all time record Thursday was 96…back in 1951
90 – 78  Kailua Kona
87 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday morning:

0.68  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.17  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.07  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.08  Hana AP, Maui
1.25  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday morning:

20  Puu Lua, Kauai – NE
27  Kuaokala,
Oahu – NE
27  Molokai – E
27  Lanai – ENE

28  Kahoolawe – NE
29  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE

31  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
We see tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones in the
deeper tropics…including Hurricane Guillermo
well to our east-southeast

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP0915W5+gif/143730W_sm.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms remain offshore to the south and west
of the islands…plus the low cloud swirl associated with
former tropical depression 08E to the east-southeast
Looping version


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy over the islands – high cirrus clouds
to the west…along with the leading edge of the low cloud
swirl mentioned above…to our east-southeast
Looping version


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

A few showers in our vicinity – looping radar image

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island

July’s second full moon, called a Blue Moon…today

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will remain active through the rest of this week…through at least Tuesday or Wednesday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find moderately strong high pressure systems far to the northeast of the state. At the same time, we have troughs/low pressure systems to the northwest, southwest, south and east-southeast of our islands. We’ll see periodic increases in trade wind speeds, as some of these low pressure systems move by to the south of the state…through the next several days. As tropical cyclone Guillermo moves close to the state around the middle of next week, our local winds will either slow way down or accelerate…its still too early to know which way it will go yet.

There will be occasional showers falling along our windward sides locally… at times through the next several days. The leeward sides will be quite dry in contrast, with nice weather prevailing. The next wetter episode will arrive this weekend into early next week. A weak low pressure system, which is former tropical depression 08E, will be moving by to the south of the state, with its northern fringe spreading tropical moisture over parts of the island chain. There will likely be another area of tropical moisture arriving next week around Wednesday or so, as tropical cyclone Guillermo moves into our general area then.

The deeper tropics remain active with areas of low pressure all the way towards Mexico. I’ll be watching this elongated zone to Hawaii’s south, southeast, and east-southeast very carefully. The most notable area at the moment is former tropical cyclone 08E, here’s a satellite image of its location, the looping version. At this point, it appears that whatever is left of this swirl of low clouds…will pass south of the Big Island. This in turn will bring sultry weather to the Aloha State again, with some increase in windward showers…especially over the eastern end of the island chain this weekend into Monday.

Meanwhile, category 2 Hurricane 09E (Guillermo) remains active, and is expected to be a major category 3 hurricane…as it pushes into our central Pacific this weekend. Here’s a satellite image of this storm, along with the looping version…and finally what the computer models are showing. It still looks as if this tropical cyclone will move close to the islands around the middle of next week. This would bring another round of muggy tropical weather our way then, as well as possible increased heavy rainfall, and even a chance of blustery winds. Many of the computer models are showing this system coming close to the state, or veering up to the northeast of Hawaii, which would tend to cut off our trade winds. As you can see, there’s still a high degree of uncertainty around the forecast for the middle of next week, as the models continue to sort out the prospects….please stay tuned. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Friday wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 535am Friday morning, skies are mostly clear, with just a few low clouds around the edges.
The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 57.5 degrees, while it was 79 down at the Kahului airport, and 73 out in Hana at about the same time.

~~~ Here’s a weather product that I produced for the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) this morning…covering the Atlantic Ocean

~~~ Here’ a second weather product that I produced for the PDC this morning, covering the Pacific Ocean


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   A weak and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
Gulf of Mexico:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean


Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 09E (Guillermo) remains active, and is located about 1430 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Hurricane 09E will continue to strengthen, and become a major category 3 hurricane tonight or early Saturday. Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A low associated with post-tropical cyclone 08E is located about 600 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The low is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west at 10 to 15 mph. Redevelopment of 08E is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 0 percent

2.)  NHC is issuing advisories on hurricane Guillermo, located about 1565 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Guillermo is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Saturday afternoon as a hurricane.

3.)  A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii continues to generate showers and thunderstorms. Although some slow development cannot be ruled out, upper-level winds and plenty of mid-level dry air north of this feature will likely inhibit further development over the next couple of days as it moves west at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

~~~ Here’s a link to a satellite image … showing these three areas above ^^^

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


>>>
Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 13W (Soudelor)
remains active, located about 540 NM east of Saipan, CNMI Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

>>>
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Forests take years to rebound from drought In the virtual worlds of climate modeling, forests and other vegetation are assumed to bounce back quickly from extreme drought. But that assumption is far off the mark, according to a new study of drought impacts at forest sites worldwide. Living trees took an average of two to four years to recover and resume normal growth rates after droughts ended, researchers report today in the journal Science.

“This really matters because in the future droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change,” says lead author William R.L. Anderegg, an assistant professor of biology at the University of Utah. “Some forests could be in a race to recover before the next drought strikes.”

Forest trees play a big role in buffering the impact of human-induced climate change by removing massive amounts of carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere and incorporating the carbon into woody tissues. The finding that drought stress sets back tree growth for years suggests that Earth’s forests are capable of storing less carbon than climate models have calculated.. “We highlight a success story, which provides hope and optimism that ongoing conservation actions can prevail.”

“If forests are not as good at taking up carbon dioxide, this means climate change would speed up,” says Anderegg, who performed much of the work on this study while at Princeton University. He co-authored the study with colleagues at Princeton, Northern Arizona University, University of Nevada-Reno, Pyrenean Institute Of Ecology, University of New Mexico, Arizona State University, U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University.

Tree rings tell the story

The rate of recovery from drought is largely unknown for the vast majority of tree species. Anderegg and colleagues carefully measured the recovery of tree stem growth after severe droughts since 1948 at more than 1,300 forest sites around the earth using records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Tree rings provide a convenient history of wood growth and track carbon uptake of the ecosystem in which the tree grew.

The researchers found that a few forests showed positive effects, that is, observed growth was higher than predicted after drought, most prominently in parts of California and the Mediterranean region. But in the majority of the world’s forests, trees struggled for years after experiencing drought.

On average, trunk growth took 2 to 4 years to return to normal. Growth was about 9 percent slower than expected during the first year of recovery, and remained 5 percent slower in the second year. Long-lasting effects of drought were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, and among pines and tree species with low hydraulic safety margins. “These are the species that take risks – they tend to keep using water at a high rate even as drought progresses,” Anderegg says.

How drought causes such long-lasting harm remains unknown, but the researchers offered three possible answers: Loss of foliage and carbohydrate reserves during drought may impair growth in subsequent years. Pests and diseases may accumulate in drought-stressed trees. Lasting damage to vascular tissues could impair water transport.

Worsening droughts

While it remains difficult to predict changes in precipitation, the impact of higher temperatures is certain. “Drought, especially the type that matters to forests, is about the balance between precipitation and evaporation. And evaporation is very strongly linked to temperature,” Anderegg says. “The fact that temperatures are going up suggests quite strongly that the western regions of the U.S. are going to have more frequent and more severe droughts, substantially reducing forests’ ability to pull carbon from the atmosphere.”

The drought that hit the Southwest during 2000-2003 makes the point clear. The deficit in precipitation was comparable to earlier droughts, but the temperature was 3 to 6 degrees F hotter than the long-term average. “It really seemed to make the drought lethal to vegetation where previous droughts with the same rainfall deficit weren’t,” Anderegg says.

The impact of delayed recovery from drought on carbon storage is not trivial. Over a century, carbon storage capacity in semi-arid ecosystems alone would drop by about 1.6 metric gigatons – an amount equal to about one-fourth of the entire U.S. emissions in a year.

“In most of our current models of ecosystems and climate, drought effects on forests switch on and off like a light. When drought conditions go away, the models assume a forest’s recovery is complete and close to immediate,” Anderegg says. “That’s not how the real world works.”