Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

82 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu

83 – 73  Molokai AP
87 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 69 
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Friday afternoon:

0.45  Wainiha, Kauai
1.61  Palisades,
Oahu
0.90  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.03  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
1.06  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.23  Puho CS, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday afternoon:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
37  Kuaokala, Oahu
21  Molokai
23  Lanai

18  Kahoolawe
21  Maalaea Bay, Maui

31  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure system…well northwest of the islands

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms far southeast…and to the northwest

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clear skies, with low clouds being carried our way on the brisk trades, expected to arrive mostly along windward sections…especially from Kauai down through Oahu

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers over the windward sides of the islands locally…some may become quite generous –
Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory
…Maui County waters

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Gusty trade winds remaining active through the week…into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems in the area north and northeast of Hawaii. These high pressure systems are forecast to maintain both their presence, and general strength for the time being. This will keep a steady supply of trade winds across our area through the next week…which is very common for this early summer season.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic showing vog forecast

As usual, with the trade winds blowing…they’ll carry showers our way periodically. There will be passing showers, primarily focused along the windward sides. As the trade winds remain active…some showers may spread over into the leeward sides on the smaller islands as well. The satellites are showing an especially wet batch of clouds taking aim on Oahu, although Kauai and parts of Maui County and the Big Island will also pick up some this added moisture…later today.

Marine environment details: Locally strong trade winds continue to affect portions of the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island, and a small craft advisory remains in effect there through tonight. Winds will increase this afternoon and tonight across the northern half of the state, namely around Kauai and Oahu…as a weak trough moves by. These winds are expected to approach small craft advisory levels.

Southerly swell will continue to decline in energy today and Saturday. A second south swell is expected late Sunday bringing below advisory level surf through the middle of the week. Elevated surf along windward facing shores will continue due to trade wind swell. These surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels.

 

http://asset.ninemsn.com.au/img/000/000/197/051/1.jpg

Windward Oahu…a great place for a walk an talk


Here on Maui
– Early Friday morning is dawning mostly clear, with the usual windward clouds and a few passing showers. The air temperature was 53.6F degrees at 529am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting partly cloudy skies, with a temperature of 73 degrees, while Hana was at 72…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 43 degrees.

From my Past: I recently had a long conversation with an old college teacher of mine, whose name is Leon Hunsaker. He was the meteorology professor at Sonoma State University, in northern California. This was back in the 1970’s, when he was not only teaching, but also the primary TV weatherman in San Francisco. It was so cool to be in his meteorology and climatology classes during the day, and then see him on the TV screen in the evenings. As it turned out, I was his teachers assistant (TA) at Sonoma State, which was such a thrill as well. I was so enamored by Mr. Hunsaker, and had so many in-depth conversations about the weather with him. He turned out to be my mentor, in no uncertain terms! As some of you know, I got swept off my feet by the weather…way back when I was 7 or 8 years old.

At any rate, I happened to be thinking about him the other day, and decided to see if he was still alive, and if I could get in touch with him. I was successful, and called him at his home near Grants Pass. Oregon. He’s now 92 years old, and definitely still very clear in mind, although as he mentioned, he has a few health issues that he’s dealing with. We had a good long conversation, and as you might suspect, he is a very smart man. Case in point, he graduated from Massachusetts Institute of Technololgy (MIT), which is one of our better schools here in the United States.

We chatted at length about his long and successful career, and then graded into how my career in meteorology has paralleled his quite closely. He taught as a professor, was on television and the radio, and worked for the Pacific Gas and Electric Company for many years. Interestingly enough, I did live broadcast TV weather for over 18 years, and had many radio and newspaper jobs here on Maui as well. I taught at the University of Hawaii’s Maui campus for many years, and ended up working at the Pacific Disaster Center for the last 20 years, as their Senior Weather Specialist…and still work for them today. Plus, as you may know, through a NASA grant back in the mid 1990’s, I started this website, which is still going strong.

What I wanted to do, and was able to do, was to thank him for inspiring me way back when. You may have heard me speaking about my long time friend Bob Earle, who lives in the Sacramento area. It was interesting, he went to Sonoma State University as well, and ended up being the TA for another professor there. His name was Claude Minard, and Claude and Leon shared an office at the college. So, Bob and I have continued our friendship through the last 45 or so years, and we were both weather nuts, and continue to be to this day! Bob taught at San Francisco State College for many years, and is still teaching at the University of California at Davis…and many other community colleges in the general Sacramento Valley area. His main job was for the County of Sacramento, where he was a manager in the GIS field (Geographic Information System), which can be thought of as electronic mapping. He has since retired from the County, and just does his college teaching and some consulting work now.

This reminds me of when several years ago, I got in touch with my 6th grade teacher, who lives in Seal Beach, California, whose name is Andy Seymour. Out of the blue I got in touch with him via email and then the telephone, and he was still around and doing well. He and I, and several of my 6th grade classmates, who I was able to contact, had lunch together for several years there, while I visited my Mom in Long Beach. As a matter of fact, I have a week scheduled to be in Long Beach next month. I plan on calling Andy while I’m there, and hopefully have lunch together with him then. It’s so great to be able to meet with these former teachers, to be able to acknowledge them as being such important people in my life!

Friday Evening Film: Our friend Svetlana is back on Maui from Germany, so Jeff, myself and she will go see a film. Looking at what’s playing in our local theaters was a bit discouraging, as most of the films are heavy duty…and in some cases too scary. At any rate, we picked a new 0ne called Free State of Jones, starring Matthew McConaughey, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Mahershala Ali, Jacob Lofland, Keri Russell…among many others. The synopsis: Free State of Jones is an epic action-drama set during the Civil War, and tells the story of defiant Southern farmer, and his extraordinary armed rebellion against the Confederacy. Banding together with other small farmers and local slaves, he launched an uprising that led Jones County, Mississippi to secede from the Confederacy, creating a Free State of Jones. 

The truth is that I really like Matthew McConaughey in most of his film, although when I saw the trailer for this film, I wasn’t particularly enthused. However, given the choices, this film seemed like it might be the easiest to take. The critics aren’t being very generous, so we’ll see how it is, and I’ll let you know what we thought. Until then, here’s the trailer, so if you are curious, you can take a quick look. As you’ll find, there’s lots of shooting guns in this action adventure drama.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

~~~ Here’s a weather product that I produced for the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) today (Friday)…covering a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95L, which is in the Bay of Campeche (very southern part of the Gulf of Mexico)

~~~ Here’s a second weather product that I produced for the PDC…covering two tropical disturbances, one in the South China Sea being referred to as Invest 96W, and a second in the Western Pacific being referred to as Invest 97W

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected. However, locally heavy rain is possible when the system moves inland over eastern Mexico on Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for slow development of this system early next week while the low moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
No active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Volcanoes get quiet before they erupt! – When dormant volcanoes are about to erupt, they show some predictive characteristics–seismic activity beneath the volcano starts to increase, gas escapes through the vent, or the surrounding ground starts to deform. However, until now, there has not been a way to forecast eruptions of more restless volcanoes because of the constant seismic activity and gas and steam emissions. Carnegie volcanologist Diana Roman, working with a team of scientists from Penn State, Oxford University, the University of Iceland, and INETER* has shown that periods of seismic quiet occur immediately before eruptions and can thus be used to forecast an impending eruption for restless volcanoes. The duration of the silence can indicate the level of energy that will be released when eruption occurs. Longer quiet periods mean a bigger bang. The research is published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

The team monitored a sequence of eruptions at the Telica Volcano in Nicaragua in 2011. It is a so-called stratovolcano, with a classic-looking cone built up by many layers of lava and ash. They started monitoring Telica in 2009 with various instruments and by 2011 they had a comprehensive network within 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) of the volcano’s summit.

The 2011 eruptive event was a month-long series of small to moderate ash explosions. Prior to the eruption, there was a lack of deep seismicity or deformation, and small changes in sulfur dioxide gas emissions, indicating that the eruption was not driven by fresh magma. Instead, the eruption likely resulted from the vents being sealed off so that gas could not escape. This resulted in an increase in the pressure that eventually caused the explosions.

Of the 50 explosions that occurred, 35 had preceding quiet periods lasting 30 minutes or longer. Thirteen explosions were preceded by quiet intervals of at least five minutes. Only two of the 50 did not have any quiet period preceding the explosion.

“It is the proverbial calm before the storm,” remarked Roman. “The icing on the cake is that we could also use these quiet periods to forecast the amount of energy released.”

The researchers did a “hindsight” analysis of the energy released. They found that the longer the quiet phase preceding an explosion, the more energy was released in the ensuing explosion. The quiet periods ranged from 6 minutes before an explosion to over 10 hours (619 minutes) for the largest explosion.

The researchers were also able to forecast a minimum energy for impending explosions based on the data from the previous quiet/explosion pairs and the duration of the particular quiet period being analyzed. The correlation between duration of quiet periods and amount of energy released is tied to the duration of the gas pathways being blocked. The longer the blockage, the more pressure builds up resulting in more energy released. Sealing might be occurring due to mineral precipitation in cracks that previously acted as gas pathways, or due to the settling of the rock near the volcano’s surface.

“What is clear is that this method of careful monitoring of Telica or other similar volcanoes in real time could be used for short-term forecasts of eruptions,” Roman said. “Similar observations of this phenomenon have been noted anecdotally elsewhere. Our work has now quantified that quiet periods can be used for eruption forecasts and that longer quiet periods at recently active volcanoes could indicate a higher risk of energetic eruptions.”