Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

88 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 77  Molokai
85 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:

1.45  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.67  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
 0.08  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.02  Kahoolawe
2.37  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.52  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:

27  Port Allen, Kauai
31  Kuaokala, Oahu
32  Molokai
28  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
35  Kahului AP, Maui
29  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Tropical Storm Fernanda (left) with Tropical Depression 08E..and Tropical Storm Greg following to the right

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Fernanda has been downgraded to a tropical storm recently

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Fernanda will move into the central Pacific this evening…then to the north of Hawaii

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Fernanda will weaken further to a remnant low by Saturday

 

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Fernanda’s cloud swirl…to the far right of the islands

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Low clouds…higher level clouds over the eastern islands


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Showers mostly windward and mountains…and offshore
Looping radar image



Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channel around Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Maui and the Big Island

Special Weather Statement…Coastal Flooding Possible:

Coastal flooding associated with King tides will be a possibility the next couple of days. The greatest potential for coastal flooding impacts will be during the mid to late afternoon hours through the weekend, when highest tides are expected.

Waves generated by distant Hurricane Fernanda are expected to lead to increasing surf along east facing shores the next couple of days, and this may lead to greater wave run-up along exposed windward coastlines.

Impacts of the King tides may include flooding of beaches that are normally dry, salt water inundation of typically vulnerable low-lying roads, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. The potential for coastal flooding will diminish early next week as the peak daily tides diminish.

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Our mid-summer trade wind weather pattern will continue through the weekend, with off and on passing clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas…occasionally spreading to leeward areas on the smaller islands. This trade wind flow is expected to be somewhat showery through tonight, with fewer showers expected Thursday through Saturday. Hurricane Fernanda, east-southeast of the islands, will move northwest and weaken over the next couple of days. It’s still too early to know what affect Fernanda will have on island weather early next week.

Details: A very large, moderately strong high pressure system is located generally north-northwest of the islands, which is generating moderate to locally stronger trade winds across the Hawaiian Islands. Low clouds embedded in this flow are supplying off and on showers, focused most intently along the windward sides.

Looking Ahead: More limited showers are expected Thursday into the weekend, although by early next week, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Fernanda, will likely bring a period of unsettled weather. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fernanda dissipating to a remnant low, while it’s well east of the Big Island Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Fernanda, still in the eastern Pacific, will continue moving west-northwest, and as a result…the Hawaiian Islands will need to keep an eye on it. Fernanda will move into our central Pacific later today..although will be losing strength quickly as it moves closer. It’s still too early to know exactly what influence this storm could have on the islands, as it moves into the area northeast of the state later this week, although high surf generated from this storm will be breaking along our east shores over the next few days. Whatever is left of Fernanda [the current strong winds will be long gone], may bring clouds and showers, some of which may be locally heavy, into the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. However, there’s a chance that most of Fernanda’s rainfall will pass by to the north of the islands. If Fernanda moves to the northeast and then north of Hawaii as expected, it could cut off our trade winds…bringing sultry conditions into the state for a day or two.

Here’s a weather model showing Fernanda moving by to the north of the islands.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue into the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure remains far north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for waters around Maui County and the Big Island through early Friday morning.

An east swell from Hurricane Fernanda has been slow to arrive in the islands, but is expected to build through the week. The size of this swell will be dependent on the exact track and intensity of Fernanda.

Otherwise, small swells from the northwest and south are expected for the next several days.

The largest high tides of the month (king tides) will be occurring during the afternoons and evenings for the next several days. The highest tides in most areas will be on Saturday. The high tides and the swell from Fernanda could combine to produce coastal flooding in some areas.

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Trades with off and on…mostly windward showers


>>> Southern California Weather Brief:  Some monsoonal moisture will bring a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the San Gabriel mountains and Antelope valley this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect night through morning low clouds and fog in coastal areas and locally in the valleys through early next week. Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday, then a bit above normal Friday and Saturday, with some cooling expected by early next week.

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Mostly clear inland…low clouds offshore

 

>>> San Francisco Bay area weather brief: Onshore flow will keep temperatures near seasonable normals through this week with late night and early morning low clouds near the coast. A slight warming and drying trend is then expected by the upcoming weekend.

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Low clouds offshore…and inland locally



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Fernanda remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm Greg remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 08E remains active, having spun up in the middle of the two systems above, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) Showers and thunderstorms centered about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, are showing some signs of organization in association with a broad low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is expected to form well southwest of Mexico over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers in the far eastern Pacific near and west of Central America are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda, centered east of  Hawaii. Fernanda is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility later today.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Sea temperature changes contributing to droughts — Fluctuations in sea surface temperature are a factor in causing persistent droughts in North America and around the Mediterranean, new research suggests. A team from the universities of Exeter, Montpellier and Wageningen analyzed data from 1957–2002 and found sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and North Atlantic became increasingly variable, and extremes lasted for longer.

Ocean temperatures are a major driver of conditions on land, and the researchers showed that the changes they observed correlated with increases in land temperature variability, and persistence of extreme temperatures.

This in turn was associated with persistent droughts in North America and on land around the Mediterranean.

“Our evidence shows that larger and more persistent variations in sea surface temperature have occurred in the North Atlantic and North Pacific and these contributed to more extreme and persistent temperature anomalies on parts of the world’s land surface,” said Professor Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter.

The researchers, who systematically scanned monthly temperature data to look for trends, note that such extended periods of high or low temperatures can have an effect “greater than the sum of their parts”.

“For instance, a long heatwave can have greater impacts on human mortality than the sum of individual hot days, and multi-year droughts can have greater agricultural economic impacts than the sum of individual dry years,” Professor Lenton said.

An ongoing drought in the eastern Mediterranean, which began in 1998, has been described by NASA as the “worst drought of the past nine centuries” in the region.

There have also been persistent droughts in the south west of North America in recent years, often referred to as the “California Drought”.

The paper, published in the Nature journal Scientific Reports, is entitled: “Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability.”