Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday

80 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 65  Molokai
88 – 62  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 72  Kona Int’l AP
82 – 65  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:

0.23  Hanalei, Kauai
0.24  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
 0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.19  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.07  Papaikou Well, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Monday evening:

17  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
20  Bellows, Oahu
08  Molokai
 13  Lanai
39  Kahoolawe
28  Kahului AP, Maui
27  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Pacific storm track well north

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A cold front north-northwest…which is passing by to the north

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Clear to partly cloudy, a few cloudy areas…cirrus north

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Showers locally – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…windward Oahu to Maui County and the Big Island


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad brush overview: A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the state through Thursday night…driving a moderate east to southeast flow across the state. A trough of low pressure aloft will dig east of the island chain Tuesday night, bringing an increase in windward showers through Friday. A prefrontal band of showers may impact the state Thursday night and Friday, although the front is not expected to reach the state. A strong high pressure system will set up northeast of the state this weekend… bringing back windy conditions.

Details: A near 1031 millibar high pressure system is located well northeast of the islands, with a surface ridge extending southwest…to the north of Hawaii. High pressure systems, with their associated ridges will remain north of the islands through the next week. The current ridge will weaken tonight, as a cold front passes by far well north of our area. As a result, the trade winds will weaken a tad…and should veer to the east or even southeast. We may see more volcanic haze (vog) be carried over parts of the smaller islands.

Looking ahead: Models show the ridge to our north sliding east Thursday night, as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will stall Friday night, while a high pressure system builds in to the north. However, a prefrontal band of showers may form out ahead of  the front itself, bringing a few showers our way Friday. The high pressure system to the north is forecast to strengthen this weekend, with stronger trades. The atmosphere will stabilize, with just the typical windward showers…moving in on the gusty trades into early next week.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: The current large west-northwest swell will slowly lower into Tuesday, then hold through mid-week, due to a slight reinforcement Wednesday. A combination of this swell, and the strong trade winds over waters around the Big Island, will continue to generate rough boating conditions today. The Small Craft Advisory will remain up over most marine areas due to a combination of seas and winds. Winds and seas are forecast to drop below advisory levels Tuesday through Thursday, as the ridge of high pressure north of the state slightly weakens in response…to a cold front passing by well north of the area. Another cold front is forecast to approach the region later in the week, then stall and weaken north and northwest of the area into the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through the week, due to moderate to strong onshore winds.

Surf along south facing shores will likely remain up today due to the large WNW swell wrapping around the islands, and a small south- southwest swell that’s forecast to fill in. A slight increase in surf along south facing shores is possible Thursday through Saturday, due to a south-southwest…associated with a low pressure system southeast of New Zealand.

A powerful low that has already developed off the coast of Japan, has an associated fetch of storm to near hurricane force winds, out of the west focused toward our area. Models depict this system rapidly deepening today, while lifting northeastward across the northwest Pacific. The westerly wind field associated with this system is expected to expand through this period and remain at storm force levels over a large area. As this system evolves by mid week, a large westerly swell will result, that could reach the islands as early as Thursday night, peak through the day Friday, then slowly lower over the weekend.

 

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Generally fair weather this week in Hawaii


Southern California Weather Summary: A mostly dry cold front will bring some rain showers and snow showers to the mountains, mainly along the northern slopes. Behind the front, widespread strong west to north winds will affect the region through Tuesday morning. High pressure will bring a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper trough of low pressure, moving by to the north will bring cooling again for Thursday and Friday…with warmer weather once again by the weekend.

 

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Generally fair weather over Southern California…for the most part

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Clear to partly cloudy…with just a few cloudy areas – Looping radar



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean:


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Extreme space weather: protecting our critical infrastructure – Extreme space weather has a global footprint and the potential to damage critical infrastructure on the ground and in space. A new JRC report calls for bridging knowledge gaps and for better coordination at EU level to reduce the potential impact of space weather events.

The sun shapes the space environment around the Earth. This so-called space weather can affect space assets but also critical infrastructure on the ground, potentially causing service disruptions or infrastructure failures. Numerous space weather events affecting the power grid, aviation, communication, and navigation systems have already been documented.

The impact of severe space weather can cross national borders, which means that a crisis in one country can affect the infrastructure in the neighboring countries. This raises concerns due to the increasing reliance of society on the services that these infrastructures provide.

New report identifies knowledge gaps

The JRC has investigated the impacts of space weather on critical infrastructure in the EU. A new report identifies the gaps in reducing risks linked to space weather and makes recommendations for policy, industry and science on how to close these gaps.

The report summarizes the results of a summit organized in partnership with the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and the UK Met Office, with the support of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in November 2016. Representatives from European infrastructure operators, insurance, academia, ESA, and European and US government agencies attended the event.

Interdependencies and crisis response

The potential failure of critical infrastructures during extreme space weather can lead to cascading effects impacting other sectors.

New methodologies and tools, as well as a multi-risk governance approach are needed to assess these interdependencies and to enable the coordination of the many different actors that often manage risks in isolation from one other.

A pan-European vulnerability assessment of the power grid should be carried out to identify critical issues and transboundary effects in case of extreme space weather. Infrastructure operators should also assess whether their systems could be indirectly vulnerable to space weather, for instance due to dependencies on timing and positioning information provided by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS).

Better communication between science and industry is also needed to provide relevant and reliable information to operators for decision making.

Space weather forecasting

Early warning and preparedness are essential for limiting the effects of space-weather impacts.

In Europe and the USA, 24/7 space-weather forecasting capabilities are available to support the early warning of government and industry. However, it is important that the consistency of forecasts from different service providers are ensured.

There is a need to enhance forecasting capabilities for regional or local forecasts on the severity and duration of extreme space weather to ensure appropriate response from local operators.

Currently, geomagnetic storm forecasting is hampered by the limited understanding of the magnetic field orientation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) before they hit the Earth, and there are still significant knowledge gaps in physical and impact modelling, which affect the early-warning capabilities and preparedness in industry.

The role of the EU

In the EU, the European Program on Critical Infrastructure Protection provides a policy background for critical infrastructure protection, while the EU disaster risk management policy covers prevention, preparedness and response for all types of disasters.

The Union Civil Protection Mechanism requires EU Member States to prepare a national risk assessment and list the priority risks they are facing. Six countries have included space weather in their risk assessment.

The participants of the summit indicated that there is a need for for improving coordination between the different space weather actors and recommended the establishment of a strategic European decision-making capability to coordinate space-weather risk mitigation and response at pan-European level.

They also advised that the roles and responsibilities of the key players in Europe should be better defined and suggested that coordinated strategic investments for improving the scientific know-how in this area could be explored.

Background

Different types of solar activity can impact the operations of critical infrastructures: Solar flares trigger radio blackouts and affect radar, ground- and space-based communications, as well as the GPS network. Solar radiation storms are a threat to satellite operations, aviation and space flights. Geomagnetic storms, caused by the ejection of magnetized solar plasma which interacts with Earth’s magnetosphere, affect satellite, GPS, aviation, rail transport and power-grid operations.