Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

79 – 61   Lihue, Kauai
79 – 70   Honolulu, Oahu
80 – 68   Molokai
82 – 69   Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 70   Kona Int’l AP
84 – 65   Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:

0.29   Kokee, Kauai
0.37   Schofield Barracks, Oahu
 0.17   Molokai
0.03   Lanai
0.27   Kahoolawe
2.36   Puu Kukui, Maui
1.02   Kahua Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:

14   Port Allen, Kauai
16   Wheeler AAF, Oahu
14   Molokai
 14   Lanai
21   Kahoolawe
25   Kaupo Gap, Maui
35  Nene Cabin, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Very active pattern stretches across the entire Pacific

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Yet another frontal boundary…continues to bear down on our state

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Mostly clear, a little high cirrus west…the departing front east

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Just a few showers – Looping radar image

 

Gale Warning…offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles

Small Craft Advisory…increasing winds and and seas

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~




Drier weather is expected…as the recent cold front continues to move away from our area. A few passing showers can be expected across the area, although they will generally be light over the upcountry sections. The models indicate this retiring cold front will dissipate well to the east of the Big Island tonight. A very dry westerly air flow will be in place across the island chain. A broad expanse of low pressure will park itself far north of the state…during the Monday through Thursday time period. A southwest kona flow will develop Monday, out ahead of a cold front that will approach our area over the next few days. Locally breezy conditions can be expected across some areas…especially over and just downwind of higher terrain.

The atmosphere will remain rather dry Monday…with just a few isolated showers expected. A bit more moisture will move over the area beginning Tuesday, as this next cloud band approaches Kauai. This front is forecast to be weaker than the one that affected the area yesterday, as strong upper dynamics will be lacking in the island vicinity. The front is forecast to reach Kauai later Tuesday. The front will then move down the island chain Wednesday, before stalling and weakening over Maui or the Big Island Thursday. Passing light to locally moderate showers are expected with frontal passage (fropa). Winds will become light in the fronts wake, favoring daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes into Friday. Generally dry weather can be expected on into Friday.

Yet another cold front is forecast to approach the area Friday into the night. The front is forecast to move down the island chain Saturday and Sunday (what another weekend storm…for crying out loud!?), with another round of showers associated with it. The difference with this particular frontal boundary is that strong high pressure will be building in north and northwest of the state at the same time. This will result in rather windy and cool northerly winds to blow across our area. This in turn will focus showers primarily over the windward sections for the most part…although the winds will be sufficiently strong to blow some of these showers over to leeward sides as well.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: There are no marine watch/warning/advisories in effect at this time. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in place around the Big Island earlier today has been cancelled, as the southwest winds have generally dropped below the threshold. The front which passed through the state yesterday and last night remains nearly stationary along the far eastern offshore waters. Isolated thunderstorms continue to flare along this front, but do not pose a threat to the coastal waters. The front will continue to weaken through the night.

The surface ridge will remain south of the state for the next few days, as another front approaches from the west, keeping a west to southwest flow over the state. Winds may reach the SCA threshold as the front moves closer and the pressure gradient tightens Monday…in the waters near Kauai and Oahu. The front will continue to weaken as it moves down the island chain through mid-week. Concurrently, a new large northwest swell is expected to impact the islands starting Monday afternoon around Kauai. The large swell will push combined seas around the state above the SCA threshold through Wednesday. This swell is forecast to peak Tuesday, and bring warning level surf to the exposed north and west facing shores into mid-week. The southwest winds over the state will help provide for choppy surf along exposed south and west facing leeward shores.

 

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Temporarily improving weather conditions


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:  The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:  No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Evidence of Sea-level Change in Southeast Asia 6,000 Years Ago Has Implications for Today’s Coastal Dwellers, Rutgers Study Finds – For the 100 million people who live within 3 feet of sea level in East and Southeast Asia, the news that sea level in their region fluctuated wildly more than 6,000 years ago is important, according to research published by a team of ocean scientists and statisticians, including Rutgers professors Benjamin Horton and Robert Kopp and Rutgers Ph.D. student Erica Ashe. That’s because those fluctuations occurred without the assistance of human-influenced climate change.

In a paper published in Nature Communications, Horton, Kopp, Ashe, lead author Aron Meltzner and others report that the relative sea level around Belitung Island in Indonesia rose twice just under 2 feet in the period from 6,850 years ago to 6,500 years ago. That this oscillation took place without any human-assisted climate change suggests to Kopp, Horton and their co-authors that such a change in sea level could happen again now, on top of the rise in sea level that is already projected to result from climate change. This could be catastrophic for people living so close to the sea.

“This research is a very important piece of work that illustrates the potential rates of sea-level rise that can happen from natural variability alone,” says Horton, professor of marine and coastal sciences in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences. “If a similar oscillation were to occur in East and Southeast Asia in the next two centuries, it could impact tens of millions of people and associated ecosystems.”

Meltzner, a senior research fellow at the Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University, along with Horton, Kopp and their co-authors, used coral microatolls to understand when, and by how much, the sea level had risen and fallen near the Indonesian island of Belitung, which lies between Sumatra and Borneo. A microatoll is a circular coral colony, typically no more than about 20 feet across, in which the topmost coral is dead and the bottom part living and growing. By taking samples from microatolls in different places, scientists can date rises and falls of sea level.

The microatolls are what scientists call a “proxy” – a natural process that provides a reliable record of past events. “In any region, you try to find the proxy controlled by sea level,” Horton says. “In New Jersey, we have no corals, so we use salt marshes. In the tropics, corals are the go-to proxy.”

The scientists studied microatolls at two sites on opposite sides of the island. Meltzner says they didn’t expect the fluctuations they found because those changes in sea level contradicted what they knew about sea level in Southeast Asia. “Our conventional understanding of ocean circulation and ice-melting history told us that such fluctuations should not occur, so we were a bit mystified at the results from our first site,” Meltzner says. “But after finding a similar pattern at a second site 80 kilometers to the southeast, and ruling out other plausible explanations, it was clear that the coral growth patterns must reflect regional changes in sea level. There would be way too many coincidences otherwise.”

The paper comes out of a long-running research project aimed at understanding the physical processes involved in sea-level rise. Such understanding, Kopp says, is necessary to help scientists understand the present and likely future state of the ocean. “This is a basic science problem,” Kopp says. “It’s about understanding past changes. Understanding what drove those changes is what allows us to test the climate models we use to predict future changes.”