Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

76 – 58  Lihue, Kauai
79 – 63  Honolulu, Oahu
78 – 68  Kahului AP, Maui
81 – 68  Kona Int’l AP
77 – 62  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

0.03  Kilohana, Kauai
0.07  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
 0.40  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.07  Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.12  Kapapala Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:

12  Waimea Heights, Kauai
21  Makua Range, Oahu
07  Molokai
14   Lanai
24  Kahoolawe
17  Maalaea Bay, Maui
18  Pali 2, Big Island

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A low pressure system remains active well northeast of the islands

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Mostly clear to partly cloudy…increasing clouds locally tonight

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Scattered lower level clouds over the islands…with wisps of high cirrus north

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Showers…increasing modestly along the windward coasts and slopes into Saturday – Looping radar image


Wind Advisory…summits of the Big Island – 40 to 55, gusts to 65 mph

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

The winds will remain cool from the north…in the wake of the recent cold front. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a low pressure center to the northeast of Hawaii, with its trailing cold front now washing out near the Big Island. Our winds will be light, as this weak cold front fades away. Cooler north winds are following in the wake of the cold front into the weekend. As we get into the first part of next week, our winds will become lighter from the southeast ahead of the next weak cold front. This in turn could bring some volcanic haze (vog) from the Big Island vents…up along the smaller islands.

Cool and mainly dry weather will prevail…with a modest increase in windward showers into Saturday. Dry and cool weather has arrived in the wake of the recent cold front, which will keep a winter feel to our environment through the weekend. I’d definitely keep that extra blanket on the bed over the next couple of nights. The winds will shift to the southeast around Tuesday, which will help take the chill out of the air then. The next cold front, approaching the Hawaiian Islands around the middle of next week, will pass by to the north…without reaching the state.

Marine environment details: The latest surface analysis showed a gale force low pressure center located around 1000 miles northeast. Meanwhile, there’s an extremely strong high pressure (1052 millibar) centered over the eastern portion of the Bering Sea/western Alaska. A recent satellite pass reflected a tight pressure gradient between these two features, with an area of gales east-northeast on the northern side of the low, and strong north-northeast winds favorable for the islands to its west. The latest model guidance have initialized well with this gale, and depict it remaining nearly stationary over the upcoming 24 hours…before filling and becoming absorbed into a broad low forecast to develop off the northwest coast, and the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend.

Although the bulk of the swell energy associated with this gale will likely miss the islands to the northwest (possibly clip the Kauai waters) over the next couple of days, moderate north-northeasterly swell energy will be the main source for surf locally along north and northeast facing shores through the weekend before lowering. A High Surf Advisory for exposed east facing shores is now active. Surf along northern shores should remain below the advisory level.

Despite some model differences, all support a broad low developing across the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend, and into early next week with strong to gale force north-northeast winds favorable for the islands. The model solutions have come into much better agreement with this feature compared to 24 hours ago. A  north-northeast associated with this system will arrive Tuesday through the mid-week period. The magnitude of the swell here in the islands will be the main question due to these model differences.

Small southerly pulses will continue to generate small surf along the southern shores of the islands today, then again next week due to recent and current activity over the southern Pacific.

Local winds are forecast to remain out of a northerly direction, as a ridge of high pressure noses southeast across the islands in the wake of an secondary frontal boundary today into the weekend. Winds will gradually veer to a more easterly direction Saturday night through Sunday, then become light and variable early next week, as a ridge axis sets up over the islands from east to west and a front passes by to the north.

For the long range, west to northwest swells will become a possibility next week through the mid-to-late week period as the northwestern Pacific becomes active, and the current blocking pattern breaks down. If the latest model solutions verify, warning level surf may arrive next weekend.

Friday Evening Film: The film I went to see this evening is one that I’d been lightly resisting, despite the fact that the leading actors are two of my favorites. It’s something about it being a musical…that didn’t seem appealing on some level. It’s called La La Land, starring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, John Legend, J.K. Simmons, Rosemarie DeWitt, and Finn Wittrock…among many others. The synopsis: Written and directed by Academy Award nominee Damien Chazelle, this film tells the story of Mia [Emma Stone], an aspiring actress, and Sebastian [Ryan Gosling], a dedicated jazz musician, who are struggling to make ends meet in a city known for crushing hopes and breaking hearts. Set in modern day Los Angeles, this original musical about everyday life explores the joy and pain of pursuing your dreams.

First of all let me say that the critics have been very generous with this film, and after seeing it…I know why. One of the things that I appreciated, was the melancholic feeling it gave me along the way. It was refreshingly different, vibrant and very energetic in parts, not to mention colorful. As one critic said, “La La Land’s song-and-dance never feels routine, knowing when to soar and when to come, tapping, down to earth.” To tell the truth, I didn’t think I was going to like sitting through a musical, although I surely did…very much. Perhaps not a classic masterpiece, although it definitely moved in that direction from beginning to end. As for a grade, it felt like a very strong B+ piece of work to me. Here’s a trailer if you’d care to take a look at this comedy drama, musical and performing arts film.

 

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A few minor windward showers into Saturday

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Rocky mountain haze – Many people head to the mountains in the summer to get above the haze of the cities and valleys. A new study finds that the haze could be catching up.

University of Utah atmospheric scientist Gannet Hallar and colleagues find a correlation between the severity of drought in the Intermountain West and the summertime air quality, particularly the concentration of aerosol particles, in remote mountain wilderness regions. The link between drought and haze is likely wildfire, the researchers write in Environmental Research Letters. Climate projections suggest that drought and wildfire risk will continue to increase in coming decades.

“If you take that into the future, we’re going to see significant hazing of the West,” Hallar says.

Haze in the air is caused by small airborne particles—typically dust, soot, ash or smoke. Aerosols are particles so small that they are suspended in air and don’t settle out. Fog and steam can also be considered aerosols.

Their role in modifying the climate is significant, depending on the composition of the particles. Dust particles made of mineral grains can reflect solar energy, providing a cooling effect. Aerosol particles made of organic carbon, such as soot or smoke, can absorb energy, however, warming the climate. Further, aerosol particles can trigger cloud formation, which exerts its own influence over global temperature and climate. Aerosols are an important component of the atmospheric energy balance.

Hallar conducts research at Storm Peak Laboratory, a research lab near Steamboat Springs, Colorado, at an elevation of 10,525 feet above sea level. The lab, a part of the Desert Research Institute, measures aerosol optical depth, the amount of aerosols between the sensor and the sun. Researchers noticed that decades of aerosol optical depth records consistently showed increased in the summer. A previous global study of aerosols had showed that, in general, aerosol concentrations were decreasing across the United States except for a summertime peak at a site in the western U.S.

The team, consisting of hydrologists and atmospheric scientists, looked at climate and drought records for the West to see if they could find a connection to the summer mountain haze. They found a correlation between drought and high-elevation aerosols, with a very likely explanation. “It’s the fires,” Hallar says. Further analysis of summer wildfire area burnt in the West showed a good correlation with aerosol optical depth in the northern, central and southern Rockies.

“It’s a strong evidence that the drought is probably allowing for more wildfires and the fires are most likely allowing for more aerosols,” Hallar says.

Hallar says that her team’s observations allow for comparison with climate models’ simulated effects of fires on aerosol emissions. The models use assumptions to estimate how much aerosol pollution results from an area of forest burned, which can lead to uncertainties in the conclusions. “We’re putting a moment of real data in there,” Hallar says, and notes that their observational data isn’t far off from what the models predict. “That has me concerned because climate models are predicting in the future a significant increase in organic aerosol loading.”

Even more concerning is that Hallar’s data came from wilderness areas—those preserved for their untouched natural beauty. A wilderness area’s borders, however, can’t keep the haze out.

Hallar hopes that her results highlight the importance of managing the relationship between drought, fire and haze in the West. “We need to think about fires in the realm of air quality,” she says.